Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[smithyweather]

The thing is though, they've already had snow so it isn't that notable. It be more notable if we actually saw snow to low levels.

[SMU]

The ECM 168/192/216 has a shortwave creep through the block prior to the retrogression, this then gets swept up in the returning flow & is the resultant feature that you see at 216 squeezing the cold west...

 

Classic carts, pity its not just a few weeks down the line-

 

S

[Summer Sun]

The thing is though, they've already had snow so it isn't that notable. It be more notable if we actually saw snow to low levels.

 

The Scottish mountains always get snow first, to get snow at lower levels this early in October we'd need some low 850 uppers, -4 maximum and below probably more like -6?

 

ECM is no where near those sort of low uppers

 

[DAVID SNOW]

It looks like rotten end to the working week in the south and south east with heavy rain and a cold wind making it feel awful further north its a different story with high pressure keeping it sunnier and cool

 

Of course if cold rain and strong winds is your thing then your in for a treat

Its not summer anymore Gav and I for one am looking forward to some varied autumnal weather, with some wind and rain and colder days,

Its nice to see an end to these mild humid south westerlies

[Summer Sun]

Cool and unsettled end to ECM

 

 

A closer look shows the south west holding onto the highest uppers at around +4

 

[ANYWEATHER]

I really do feel that a potent cold spell will happen in October, Im not including this week as temps will be brought down to normal levels especially for the south, but given the last few years where snow has fell  to low levels in the south of the Uk, I would not be surprised to see something like the gfs is predicting although im not saying this will happen at this timescale!!! There is an unusual build up in cold further north and of course some of that cold will have to spill southward at some point.....   And the ecm puts up some dream winter charts.....
 

Edited October 7, 2013 by ANYWEATHER

[NorthernRab]

The thing is though, they've already had snow so it isn't that notable. It be more notable if we actually saw snow to low levels.

 

Where I'm from the words "there's snow in on the ben the day" is a sure sign that winter is very much on its way 

 

 

And with charts like this showing in the later frames, I think we're at quite a strong position this early in the game. Strong Eurasian snow cover, comforting lack of a powerful fully-formed PV and frequent hints at some form of blocking centred around Greenland on the CFS - I'm happy for anything to happen with the weather at the moment when there's these factors to take into account. The possibility of some early chilly weather, frosts and snow on the mountains during the latter stages of the GFS is just a bonus! 

 

Edited October 7, 2013 by NorthernRab

[Frosty.]

This is more like it, tonight's GEFS 12z mean shows proper mid-late october weather with the PFJ much further south at times, even occasionally to the south of the BI, it also looks generally unsettled and cold enough for snow on the higher hills and mountains across northern britain with a more southerly tracking jet, temperatures dipping below normal, especially further north but even in the south at times with temps struggling..about time, we could even get a more potent cold spell later in the month so the trend is now going in the right direction. 

[simshady]

I think I'm starting to like your posts again Frosty.

[NorthernRab]

 to get snow at lower levels this early in October we'd need some low 850 uppers, -4 maximum and below probably more like -6?

 

ECM is no where near those sort of low uppers

 

 

Actually, it is.

 

 

Albeit at the end of the run.

[Gaz1985]

ECM showing pressure building late in the run. It would feel pleasant enough in any sun after any fog as shifted, obviously not as mild as recently but thank fully no snow. 

 

Edited October 7, 2013 by Gaz1985

[Mr Frost]

sigh, for the people on here it's rather baffling to see people celebrating charts which would provide the same surface conditions except it will be 5C cooler.Neither warm or cold, just cool, breezy and mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain at times, some heavy in the south east for a time.So after much ranting and raving about cloudy and damp conditions over the past couple of weeks, you are celebrating charts which deliver the same thing.I'm sorry but I cannot at all get excited over this, boring, depressing easterly muck.

One for the moaning thread Captain? Edited October 7, 2013 by Mr Frost

[AWD]

ECM showing pressure building late in the run. It would feel pleasant enough in any sun after any fog as shifted, thank fully no snow.

You sure that's showing a pressure build mate??

Me don't think it is! lol. :)

[SE Blizzards]

 

 

A closer look shows the south west holding onto the highest uppers at around +4

 

 

 

And just to balance things out the North East seeing the lowest uppers at -4, which sadly for you is near to your neck of the woods. 

 

Last winter we saw the cold take a big bite out of the first couple of months of spring. I just wonder after seeing today's output that it could be that this winter takes a big bite out of the last couple of months of Autumn??

Certainly seems at present that the coldies amongst us (not you gavin, obviously) are having to wait less and less time in between each winter.

I also seem to remember that a few isolated places in the UK saw snow last October? Although i'm not 100% sure about that. I'm sure someone will correct me if i'm wrong

Maybe some snow again for this October? ...I certainly wouldn't rule that out at present after the developments over the last couple few days.

Whatever happens this winter, the anticipation and expectation is certainly building.

 

Edited October 7, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[BlueHedgehog074]

Certainly some encouraging signs showing on some of the models such as the GFS and ECMWF for blocking to the North-West of us. But it looks like the High Pressure over the Greenland area at 216 hours on the 12Z ECMWF is acting as though it is the 'King of the Northern Blocking'. (the High is shaped bit like a crown)...

 

 

 

;-)

 

 

 

Edited October 7, 2013 by DiagonalRedLine

[Captain Shortwave]

One for the moaning thread Captain?

Nah, it will be filled up with coldies next week complaining about the lack of frost, or sun, or snow 

[Mr Frost]

Nah, it will be filled up with coldies next week complaining about the lack of frost, or sun, or snow 

As long as they are all based South of me! :-D

[UV-RAY]

Where I'm from the words "there's snow in on the ben the day" is a sure sign that winter is very much on its way 

 

 

And with charts like this showing in the later frames, I think we're at quite a strong position this early in the game. Strong Eurasian snow cover, comforting lack of a powerful fully-formed PV and frequent hints at some form of blocking centred around Greenland on the CFS - I'm happy for anything to happen with the weather at the moment when there's these factors to take into account. The possibility of some early chilly weather, frosts and snow on the mountains during the latter stages of the GFS is just a bonus! 

 

Love that picture NR, it's been a few years since I was up on the Ben, looks like there could be quite a covering by the end of the weekend.

[SE Blizzards]

Cool and unsettled end to ECM

 

 

A closer look shows the south west holding onto the highest uppers at around +4

 

 

And just to balance things out the North East seeing the lowest uppers at -4, which sadly for you is near to your neck of the woods. 

 

Last winter we saw the cold take a big bite out of the first couple of months of spring. I just wonder after seeing today's output that it could be that this winter takes a big bite out of the last couple of months of Autumn??

Certainly seems at present that the coldies amongst us (not you gavin, obviously) are having to wait less and less time in between each winter.

I also seem to remember that a few isolated places in the UK saw snow last October? Although i'm not 100% sure about that. I'm sure someone will correct me if i'm wrong 

Maybe some snow again for this October? ...I certainly wouldn't rule that out at present after the developments over the last few days.

Whatever happens this winter, the anticipation and expectation is certainly building.

Edited October 7, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[ANYWEATHER]

sigh, for the people on here it's rather baffling to see people celebrating charts which would provide the same surface conditions except it will be 5C cooler.

Neither warm or cold, just cool, breezy and mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain at times, some heavy in the south east for a time.

So after much ranting and raving about cloudy and damp conditions over the past couple of weeks, you are celebrating charts which deliver the same thing.

I'm sorry but I cannot at all get excited over this, boring, depressing easterly muck.

It looks easterly muck for southern areas of the the uk by the weekend,  The North lovely blue skies....    

[Frosty.]

sigh, for the people on here it's rather baffling to see people celebrating charts which would provide the same surface conditions except it will be 5C cooler.

Neither warm or cold, just cool, breezy and mostly cloudy with outbreaks of rain at times, some heavy in the south east for a time.

So after much ranting and raving about cloudy and damp conditions over the past couple of weeks, you are celebrating charts which deliver the same thing.

I'm sorry but I cannot at all get excited over this, boring, depressing easterly muck.

we have to start somewhere captain, even I became fed up of the benign spell, there is nothing benign about the weather later this week, big things have small beginnings and this could be the start of changes on a much larger scale in the weeks ahead. 

Edited October 7, 2013 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

Its not summer anymore Gav and I for one am looking forward to some varied autumnal weather, with some wind and rain and colder days,

Its nice to see an end to these mild humid south westerlies

speaking of south westerlies, does anyone know where mushymanrob is? miss his early morning updates.

[nick sussex]

Looking at tonights outputs some good northern blocking shown but theres not enough trough disruption for the timebeing. The ECM does stick to its general earlier trend, its becoming apparent that if the shortwave near Iceland does verify at 168hrs then where that goes will determine whether theres something a bit more interesting in terms of bringing some colder conditions from the ne.

You do need the favourable cut back in the jet and this is often a problem, we have seen the difficulties in later timeframe modelling in terms of energy distribution with a bias but theres also another complication as to where the main core of the heights go in the later ECM frames.

Anyway its only October and you'd need something exceptional synoptically to bring snow especially this early. A positive for those hoping for a decent winter is the possible big increase in northern Eurasian snow cover.

[DAVID SNOW]

speaking of south westerlies, does anyone know where mushymanrob is? miss his early morning updates.

Gone with the wind?

[smithyweather]

The Scottish mountains always get snow first, to get snow at lower levels this early in October we'd need some low 850 uppers, -4 maximum and below probably more like -6?

 

ECM is no where near those sort of low uppers

 

GFS is.