Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[UV-RAY]

Correct I didn't say this week I said next week

 

I work on a week starting on a Sunday so when I said next week I was referring to week 2

Lol, things were different in olden days, sorry John.

[bobbydog]

an early pre-winter foray into this thread for me.

 

nothing changes. anyone found any nits yet?.....

[draztik]

Looking at the ECM 12z in a little more detail; rain for N.I. and Scotland on Monday, with showers following in behind on Tuesday. The real change occurs on Wednesday, with a more organized low moving South Eastwards from the North. N.I & Scotland will see some affect of this, but its the East coast of the UK which will be prone to rather persistent rain on Wednesday thru Friday. Into the weekend, the rain is still with us, with Central and Southern Britain now at risk. The North & NW will see the best of conditions, with settled, less cold and sunny weather from Thurs into the weekend. At the latter stages of its run, rain is seen moving into Ireland from an Atlantic low trying to move Eastwards.

Edited October 6, 2013 by draztik

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Correct I didn't say this week I said next week

I work on a week starting on a Sunday so when I said next week I was referring to week 2[/

quote]

It probably will warm up after this cold spell thats stating the obvious but prob not on the scale you are hoping for. Average at best probably.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble shows a gradual rise in uppers once this colder snap passes

 

 

 

Not to the extent of the ECM Op but in any sunshine and light winds it would still feel pleasant for the time of year it could also increase the risk of frost and fog given that we would be at the half way stage of Autumn by the time we get to the final 2 charts

[london-snow]

t216 sees the high extending across the UK

Uppers slowly rise from the west

Give it a rest.

It was only 36 hours ago that you were saying hp and warm conditions for this time of the year to start from today until at least mid month.

And we know how well the models behaved then.

+216 is a million miles away to take anything of note.

Enjoy the cold blast mate

[cobbett]

Unless it shows cold of course

[draztik]

Here are the accumulative rainfall totals from the GFS and ECM thru their runs.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png

gfs/ncep 12z

 

http://i44.tinypic.com/23hufrk.jpg

ecmwf 12z

Edited October 6, 2013 by draztik

[Frosty.]

Confused John. I rate you way higher than most here, but surely today is the first day of this week?

I thought this was the weekend, am I missing something? JH is correct as always. :-)Really looking forward to this cold blast now, big things have small beginnings and I think coldies are in for a lot of fun during the next 6 months.

[Captain Shortwave]

Here are the accumulative rainfall totals from the GFS and ECM thru their runs.

 

http://wxmaps.org/pix/prec4.png

gfs/ncep 12z

 

http://i44.tinypic.com/23hufrk.jpg

ecmwf 12z

150-200% of the average rainfall for the week. This would be the event that the triangle of doom would get  

[Summer Sun]

I thought this was the weekend, am I missing something? JH is correct as always. :-)Really looking forward to this cold blast now, big things have small beginnings and I think coldies are in for a lot of fun during the next 6 months.

 

This is open to debate as some work places also start the week on a Sunday to Saturday basis

 

I know the USA start there week on a Sunday

 

Take from here

 

The first day of the week varies all over the world. In most cultures, Sunday is regarded as the first day of the week although many observe Monday as the first day of the week. According to the Bible, the Sabbath or Saturday is the last day of the week which marks Sunday as the first day of the week for many Jewish and Christian faiths, while many countries regard Monday as the first day of the week.

 

Some say Sunday some say Monday either way I was referring to week 2

[Captain Shortwave]

It probably will warm up after this cold spell thats stating the obvious but prob not on the scale you are hoping for. Average at best probably.

It's retrogression or bust in this scenario. If the retrogression doesn't happen, the high sinks. This results in a low to the west, high to the east and winds from the south which of course means above average temperatures. That Atlantic low can undercut or track north east, so actually the average solution at the moment is the least likely solution.

Of course other things may come into play to make average conditions a possibility but the current positioning of the low can only really give a warm or cold solution.

It's a 70-30 siding towards the milder solution at the moment due to no model going for the cold option and if the UKMO is right at day 5 then the cold option is off the table full stop.

Edited October 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

I think this early cold blast will severely damage the chances of temps recovering to current levels, the indian summer has gone down the plug hole in the last 24 hours..it's a dramatic turnaround.

[johnholmes]

Correct I didn't say this week I said next week

 

I work on a week starting on a Sunday so when I said next week I was referring to week 2

 

I stand corrected, but maybe it does show all of us can be misunderstood IF we do not make our point totally clear?

Edited October 6, 2013 by johnholmes

[Steve C]

I thought this was the weekend, am I missing something? JH is correct as always. :-)Really looking forward to this cold blast now, big things have small beginnings and I think coldies are in for a lot of fun during the next 6 months.

Don't worry Frosty, my weeks are Sunday to Saturday - I know people have different opinions I totally appreciate your hard work on this site and definitely wouldn't wish to denigrate you .

[stewfox]

We cannot predict anything over 3 days out. All 3 models had this mild weather to carry on pretty much through the rest of the month! Look at what has happened now...... you just couldn't make it up! 

As for the mild weather returning, we shall see about that......

 

I'm ready for the forth coming winter are you ?

[Scorcher]

It's retrogression or bust in this scenario. If the retrogression doesn't happen, the high sinks. This results in a low to the west, high to the east and winds from the south which of course means above average temperatures. That Atlantic low can undercut or track north east, so actually the average solution at the moment is the least likely solution.

Of course other things may come into play to make average conditions a possibility but the current positioning of the low can only really give a warm or cold solution.

It's a 70-30 siding towards the milder solution at the moment due to no model going for the cold option and if the UKMO is right at day 5 then the cold option is off the table full stop.

 

You can't tell them though CS, once cold arrives for most of them on here that's it- any suggestion of mild conditions is waved away. It actually happened before in mid-September when many of the cold fans appeared early, seemingly believing the mild weather was done for the year. And then look what happened. If someone can demonstrate how 'average' conditions are favourite after the cold snap I'll stand corrected, but the most likely evolution would suggest milder tropical air once that trough clears away to the east.

[snowrye]

I love the cold and snow,but gotta admit im loving this warm weather at the mo and would love it to continue till the end of the month.after that a nice gradual cool down,leading to a raging beast from the east and a succesion of undercutting channel lows dumping copius amount of snow which falls heavy for hours and hours and lasts for days,with a white snowmeggadon christmas and new year.

[bluearmy]

The day 5 fax is adjusted from raw ukmo. That says it all re what you should be expecting to see with your cornflakes in the morning. Something between ukmo and ecm (but closer to ecm)

[Captain Shortwave]

The pub run is certainly interesting

For a start the dry weather in the north would not last long

Most areas next weekend would experience rain or showers at some point if this run is onto something

Almost get retrogression too but it's stopped by a ex-tropical depression moving northwards from the East coast of the US

 

When GFS low resolution is struggling to push the Atlantic low eastwards, you know you have a very sluggish pattern

Edit - The latter frames are somewhat interesting 

Edited October 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[johnholmes]

The day 5 fax is adjusted from raw ukmo. That says it all re what you should be expecting to see with your cornflakes in the morning. Something between ukmo and ecm (but closer to ecm)

 

this is the link to the latest T+120 Fax

http://www.weathercharts.org/ukmomslp.htm#t120

[Tamara]

The day 5 fax is adjusted from raw ukmo. That says it all re what you should be expecting to see with your cornflakes in the morning. Something between ukmo and ecm (but closer to ecm)

I think in terms of what we have seen, not just recently, but from past experiences, then there is no foregone conclusion of what we may see in the morning - and the fax adjusted 5 days out means very little in the upcoming scenario with such a sinuous jet stream scenario. Hence, the smallest adjustments in such an amplified loop as is being speculated in varying margins by the models makes a huge amount of difference to what we see on the ground in a small island like this and indeed on the nearby continent.

 

This principle is as pertinent now, as it was a couple of days ago, when the pattern looked more positively anticyclonic with the pattern suggested further east than it does now, and as it appears to suggest tonight with predicted looped trough landing 'somewhere' in the vicinity of the southern North sea...or maybe as far east as the Baltic... as the jet stream 'horseshoe' reverses in varying degrees according to whatever amplification solution verifies.

 

Such amplification solutions remain undecided and in the hands of fickle model output - so hence the UKMO could (again) be as right as any other model

Edited October 6, 2013 by Tamara תָּמָר

[Cheshire Freeze]

GFS churns out its first cold N'ly of the season........at 384 hours

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Not a pattern you often see in mid October

 

 

The Eurasian sector stays cold throughout.

Edited October 6, 2013 by CreweCold

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS churns out its first cold N'ly of the season........at 384 hours

 

That chart pretty much shows the only way to get snow in October, the Stoke city of synoptics, the northerly sourced straight from the north pole. Route one 

In the reliable, it looks an absolute mess, with cold pools, amplified patterns and even ex-tropical depressions all trying to get in on the act here. Some of these want to cut the high off to our north allowing blocking to set up, others want to get the Azores high in. The plot thickens and expect models to throw a large variety of long term solutions beyond the initial northerly for the end of this week.

Edited October 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave