Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Summer Sun]

t216 sees the high extending across the UK

 

 

Uppers slowly rise from the west

 

Edited October 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

And just think this time last week we were looking at 22°C and sunny all week

This pattern change has been the turning point for me, I was happy enough to keep supporting the warmth but I'm looking for cold from now on and tonight's Ecm 12z looks full of promise. :-)

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends a lot milder thanks to the low in the Atlantic coming up against the high thus dragging up warmer air

 

 

Edited October 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Scorcher]

Big improvement from the ECM tonight in my opinion, it could well warm up again after that trough finally shifts out of the way. Wednesday also doesn't look quite as cool as it did on other runs, particularly further north and west. 

[Summer Sun]

Big improvement from the ECM tonight in my opinion, it could well warm up again after that trough finally shifts out of the way. Wednesday also doesn't look quite as cool as it did on other runs, particularly further north and west. 

 

Yes keep an eye on the Atlantic low that could help us return to warmer air as is shown tonight with the high sitting to our east and the low sitting out west the two would drag up some warm air from the south

[Captain Shortwave]

The next few days are going to be interesting, at the moment we seem to have 2 paths to go beyond day 7

1) Retrogression occurs and we get heights near Greenland with a north-easterly flow. Possibly wintry showers maybe even to lower levels if the UK strikes lucky on the cold feed.

2) Retrogression fails and the high sinks between the UK and Scandinavia, result is a return to a south/South westerly flow with mixed conditions eventually returning.

Cold Vs Mild, mild has the edge long term at the moment which coincides with the Metoffice's current thoughts.

The fun and games have begun, and it's not even anywhere near winter yet 

 

PS - It's worth noting that with the UKMO output, option 1 does not exist.

Edited October 6, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SE Blizzards]

Yes keep an eye on the Atlantic low that could help us return to warmer air as is shown tonight with the high sitting to our east and the low sitting out west the two would drag up some warm air from the south

 

Hi Gavin. If you are pinning your hopes on milder air 'possibly' moving towards the UK on a 240h chart then good luck on that one. I don't think i have ever seen a 240h chart verify? Have u?

[Ian Brown]

Nice post Chiono-ECM looks spot on tonight to what I think will be the final picture from 48-120....Post that ALL models have lost the Greenland height signal at 192 - I wonder if the ECM will try & retrograde tonight which will be very rare for Oct but will ensure the snowcover starts pushing into Scandi at day 8-10SPS the UKMO looks to have had a wobble tonight-

Why do you say that ? I think that the ECM and the GFS are being too aggressive with the t roughing over the low countries and that these lower heights and associated PPN will be further south. Edited October 6, 2013 by Ian Brown

[Scorcher]

Hi Gavin. If you are pinning your hopes on milder air 'possibly' moving towards the UK on a 240h chart then good luck on that one. I don't think i have ever seen a 240h chart verify? Have u?

 

It's not just at 240h, you can see the setup earlier and the potential evolution- the trough to our east has to go somewhere and eventually it moves east which would allow things to warm up again.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

We cannot predict anything over 3 days out. All 3 models had this mild weather to carry on pretty much through the rest of the month! Look at what has happened now...... you just couldn't make it up! 

As for the mild weather returning, we shall see about that......

[SE Blizzards]

It's not just at 240h, you can see the setup earlier and the potential evolution- the trough to our east has to go somewhere and eventually it moves east which would allow things to warm up again.

 

Ah yes, but would you not agree that there is the possibility on some of the earlier time frames of the ECM that something colder could develop too?

Anyway, its all speculation at present. I'm sure it will all look different tomorrow, it usually does.

Edited October 6, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[tinybill]

ECM ends a lot milder thanks to the low in the Atlantic coming up against the high thus dragging up warmer air

 

 

well you cant have been looking at to-nights country file turning cold wet and verywindy at the  end  of  the week

[Scorcher]

Ah yes, but would you not agree that there is the possibility on some of the earlier time frames of the ECM that something colder could develop too?

 

There's no doubt that it's going to get colder from midweek for a time but I can't see it lasting all that long- I don't really see how it can sustain itself. Then again it will be colder in the SE relative to the average than other areas further north I imagine.

[Ian Brown]

The synoptics shown tonight are actually a very good lesson for the forthcoming winter whatever actually happens.

The NWP will struggle desperately with the positioning of High pressure to the North of the UK and the exact flow of any easterly will not be determined until it is within T72 to T96. Its all about bites of the cherry and synoptics can repeat like this within a short space of time, remember we went 13 years with such synoptics as rare as hens teeth.

[UV-RAY]

There's no doubt that it's going to get colder from midweek for a time but I can't see it lasting all that long- I don't really see how it can sustain itself. Then again it will be colder in the SE relative to the average than other areas further north I imagine.

I agree but I don't see a return to anything other than average temps at best thereafter, still in any sunshine it will still feel pleasant even  during  midweek.

Edited October 6, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[SMU]

Why do you say that ? I think that the ECM and the GFS are being too aggressive with the t roughing over the low countries and that these lower heights and associated PPN will be further south.

 

I think the ECM is spot on because it feels about right for a typical evolution for the UK- there may be a bit of movement south / east from that trough but not to much...-

 

S

[swfc]

Debating the break down of a cool spell in october love it! Lol.ecm does show a change in synoptics and has someone just said anything now over three days would be a good call if correct after the last few days!

[Zenarcher]

My outlook at the next 5 days,

 

Monday Chart - Low pressure moves across the North giving unsettled weather but high pressure to the South keeps warm temperatures and a chance of sunshine in the Southern parts.

 

 

A mostly cloudy day across much of the UK, fog will be in place across Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of Northern England. Rain will be heavy at times and will push in from the West over Scotland during the morning and afternoon. The best of the sunshine will be in the South East of England and Western Coastal parts of Wales may see some sunshine during the evening. There will be a strong breeze across most of the country however across Ireland and Scotland gale force winds. Temperatures ranging from 11c to 20c throughout the entire day so staying on the mild side.

 

Tuesday - Low pressure still sits to the North giving cloudy weather and high pressure to the South giving off some sunshine.

 

 

Mostly another cloudy day but overall much drier, there will be some showers with mist through the Scottish Highlands though. Southern Parts of Ireland, South Eastern and Eastern England will see the best of the sunshine for much of the day. Mainly a breezy wind but gale force winds will still be in the North over Scotland. Temperatures will range from 7c to 20c through the entire day so still staying mainly mild although Northern parts will notice a slight drop in temperatures.

 

Wednesday - High pressure sits to the West of the UK and low pressure sits to our North and East giving us colder weather with very strong winds from the North.

 

 

Starting off cloudy with a chance of showers anywhere. Into the late afternoon the cloud should break away over Ireland, Wales, Midlands, Northern England and Southern Scotland giving some sunshine as the day ends. Gale force winds will be widespread across the country with severe gales across the far North of Scotland. With the strong wind coming from the North it will push away the mild temperatures and bring it down to around 5c in some places and a maximum temperature of 16c is still likely.

 

Thursday and Friday

 

Brighter and sunnier for most although parts of England may get cloudy from time to time with a risk of showers. Gales across the Eastern coasts but overall easing elsewhere. Temperatures still on the low side.

[Summer Sun]

well you cant have been looking at to-nights country file turning cold wet and very windy at the  end  of  the week

 

Yes but who knows what next week will bring

 

GFS ens also shows warmer uppers moving in from the west for a time

 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby who agree's with me that it may warm up next week

 

Hi everyone. After a splendid early October day more reminiscent of early September than October here in the West Country here is the report on the future prospects for the UK as offered by GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM's 12 noon output for today Sunday October 6th 2013.

 

All models are in strong support on a change in conditions soon after midweek. In the meantime a SW flow carries a lot of cloud and some rain at times to the North and West, heavy in the far NW tonight and tomorrow. It will be reasonably mild but breezy here. In the South and East the sunshine of today will gradually give way to cloudier conditions tomorrow and Tuesday when a little rain sinks South. High pressure then builds to the West of the UK allowing a cold front to move South introducing much colder air with sunshine and showers, these chiefly in the East initially and then towards the SE by next weekend when winds could become cold, fresh and raw from the NE while NW Britain seeing quieter and colder skies by night with some frost and patchy fog.

 

GFS then keeps changeable conditions across the UK for the remainder of the run with further Low pressure feeding in from the West through Week 2 with all areas seeing rain or showers at times in fresh to strong winds at times in temperatures close to average.

 

UKMO shows High pressure close to NE Scotland next weekend with an Easterly flow across the South somewhat lighter than the previous day. Dry and fine weather would affect most places with frost and patchy fog possible at night. The chance of a few showers in the extreme SE at the weekend does remain however.

 

GEM shows much more ingress of Low pressure from the SE into the UK next weekend with strong winds and rain slowly giving way to drier and quieter conditions at the start of the new week as temperatures slowly lift towards average levels if not slightly above in a Southerly flow to end the run.

 

NAVGEM tonight shows a cool and quiet end to it's run with light winds and bright weather bit with an increasing risk of mist and fog at night as well as frost too in places all this following a showery weekend in the South and SE.

 

ECM shows Low pressure having travelled South over Western Europe through the week then turn West over France next weekend before filling it's way NE thereafter bringing a cool and showery spell to the South with a distinctly cool feeling Easterly breeze. Northern areas next weekend will be dry and fine under High pressure close to NE Scotland with mist, fog and frost all probable by night. The end of the run shows fairly quiet weather with some dry and bright weather around with the odd shower with mist and fog issues at night possible before a strengthening Southerly flow in association with Low pressure edging in from the West renews the risk of rain again.

 

The GFS Ensembles shows a cold snap later this week before a slow rise in uppers to above average levels, especially to the North looks likely. This translates down to the surface with average temperatures and occasional rain from the end of the wetter spell in the SE next weekend.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow turning South across the UK midweek and setting up a circulation near SE Britain at the end of the week and weekend. this then dissolves as the main Jet flow takes control in an undulating North and South pattern near the British Isles in Week 2.

 

In Summary the basic concept of the weather turning colder from midweek is pretty much nailed on now. What isn't quite so certain as yet is how much Low pressure over the other side of the Channel influences things in South and SE Britain next weekend. Some models indicate very little while other suggest some more prolonged rainfall as well as showers in rather cold conditions. Things do tidy up later in the outputs as it appears the general consensus is for temperatures to recover somewhat through Week 2 though this comes at risk of rain moving in off the Atlantic in a strengthening South wind.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[Summer Sun]

Hi Gavin. If you are pinning your hopes on milder air 'possibly' moving towards the UK on a 240h chart then good luck on that one. I don't think i have ever seen a 240h chart verify? Have u?

 

There's always time for a first

[johnholmes]

Latest from Gibby who agree's with me that it may warm up next week

 

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

not rue SS he comments on this happening in week 2 NOT this week?

[Summer Sun]

not rue SS he comments on this happening in week 2 NOT this week?

 

Correct I didn't say this week I said next week

 

I work on a week starting on a Sunday so when I said next week I was referring to week 2

Edited October 6, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Steve C]

not rue SS he comments on this happening in week 2 NOT this week?

Confused John. I rate you way higher than most here, but surely today is the first day of this week?

[Methuselah]

Gibby suggests week 2...