Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Cloud 10]

Hold the phones!

 

Agreement between GFS and UKMO at 120hrs. 

 

gfs..  ukmo..

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensemble run continues to favour high pressure to at least mid month

 

 

Now it looks as though pressure is slipping away

 

 

But don't be fooled as it moves back in enough to keep the south and east more settled with the unsettled weather for northern and western parts

 

 

Pretty much inline with the longer term met office update

[DTHFCJ]

humble apologies lad, I'll leave for now and have my dinner.

Keep up the good work John.I have learnt alot from your posts,i admire your style,you say it how is with no round the houses bull

 

so good agreemant for 3-4 days then...

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_Aberdeen_ens.png

reminds me of my ex's knickers tbh.....

[Supacell]

John's vast knowledge and wisdom is one the reasons I'm here, I hope what he said doesn't put you off posting your expert input john. :-)

 

Totally agree with this. I should think John's knowledge and wisdom is such that he won't let the odd aggressive comment prevent him from sharing his expertise. I don't post on this thread often but I do read it and sometimes wonder why people turn on each other when at the end of the day we all share the same interest, that being the weather. We may have different preferences but we all ultimately come on here for the same reason.

 

Anyhow, I am off topic so apologies. I shall go and lurk back in the now very quiet convective threads, i know the mods have a hard enough job keeping this thread friendly and on-topic

Edited October 5, 2013 by Supacell

[Cloud 10]

Ecm looks the most bullish of the 12z's regarding the cool/cold mini plunge.

 

[Summer Sun]

Something new from ECM tonight for folks to talk about

 

 

 

Another 4 to 6 weeks down the line this place would be in meltdown but as its October all it would bring is cold rain

 

Once again the big 3 all offer different solutions here's t144 as an exmaple

 

 

So thats UKMO, GFS and ECM (in that order) not one is in agreement with each other. If there is this much uncertainty come winter they'll be a lot of angry coldies in the MOD thread

Edited October 5, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SMU]

A sudden change expected tonight & overnight on the models....

 

S

 

& there we have it pages & pages of discussion on the GFS + GFS Ensembles, the ECM + ECM Ensembles- & without provoking comments about point scoring- they are all going to be wrong -

I hopefully was clear on the posts over the last few days-

 

As proved time over last year the euros ( usually the ECM but on an almost equal par last year ) the UKMO has showed that the GFS is an embarrassment & almost worthy of being totally ignored.

 

This is how bad the GFS is- NOTE how afwul the 06z IS-

 

ECM 120

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013100512/ECH1-120.GIF?05-0

 

UKMO 120

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013100512/UN120-21.GIF?05-19

 

 

GFS 06z 126

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013100506-0-126.png?6 CLUELESS

GFS 12z 120

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013100512-0-120.png?12   EASTWARD BIAS SHOWN 'typical'

 

 

& now the GFS ensembles-

 

12z yesterday

  Note the mean for the 10th is unanimous @ +10c

 

12z today -

  Note now the gfs is starting to work out that the mean needs to be close to -1c.

 

 

So, in summary-  the first model bout of the year & the GFS is knocked out with one punch from the UKMO-

 

remember a 12 degree swing in the ensembles in 24 hours. FAIL .............

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Something new from ECM tonight for folks to talk about

 

 

 

Another 4 to 6 weeks down the line this place would be in meltdown but as its October all it would bring is cold rain

 

PANTS!!!!!!!!!!!!! I still want warm settled weather, that suggests 8C and heavy rain, for the north west midlands, even SE England I would say just rain

[draztik]

ecm keeps the cool theme into day 6! Certainly a shock to the system coming up!

as for johns post, i enjoy his thoughts just like the next person, i just take issue with being told how to post in a public forum. We are all individuals, with our own thoughts. End of.

[Frosty.]

I think the Ecm 12z would bring snow to northern higher hills and mountains plus the first proper frosts....and lots of cold rain and strong winds.

[Cloud 10]

Something new from ECM tonight for folks to talk about

 

 

 

Another 4 to 6 weeks down the line this place would be in meltdown but as its October all it would bring is cold rain

 

Once again the big 3 all offer different solutions here's t144 as an exmaple

 

 

So thats UKMO, GFS and ECM (in that order) not one is in agreement with each other. If there is this much uncertainty come winter they'll be a lot of angry coldies in the MOD thread

 

 

Not sure where you are coming from with that one SS?

 

Compared to the last couple of days those charts you posted from the ecm,gfs and ukmo are like 3 peas in a pod!

[smithyweather]

& there we have it pages & pages of discussion on the GFS + GFS Ensembles, the ECM + ECM Ensembles- & without provoking comments about point scoring- they are all going to be wrong -

I hopefully was clear on the posts over the last few days-

 

As proved time over last year the euros ( usually the ECM but on an almost equal par last year ) the UKMO has showed that the GFS is an embarrassment & almost worthy of being totally ignored.

 

This is how bad the GFS is- NOTE how afwul the 06z IS-

 

ECM 120

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013100512/ECH1-120.GIF?05-0

 

UKMO 120

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013100512/UN120-21.GIF?05-19

 

 

GFS 06z 126

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013100506-0-126.png?6 CLUELESS

GFS 12z 120

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/archives/gfsnh-2013100512-0-120.png?12   EASTWARD BIAS SHOWN 'typical'

 

 

& now the GFS ensembles-

 

12z yesterday

GFSfriday04oct.png  Note the mean for the 10th is unanimous @ +10c

 

12z today -

Satoct5th.png   Note now the gfs is starting to work out that the mean needs to be close to -1c.

 

 

So, in summary-  the first model bout of the year & the GFS is knocked out with one punch from the UKMO-

 

remember a 12 degree swing in the ensembles in 24 hours. FAIL .............

 

Do you think that it will move the cold air westwards in time instead of being over Central Europe? What about uppers do you think that they will perhaps be colder?

[Jonan92]

ecm keeps the cool theme into day 6! Certainly a shock to the system coming up!

as for johns post, i enjoy his thoughts just like the next person, i just take issue with being told how to post in a public forum. We are all individuals, with our own thoughts. End of.

 

Even longer

 

[Summer Sun]

Not sure where you are coming from with that one SS?

 

Compared to the last couple of days those charts you posted from the ecm,gfs and ukmo are like 3 peas in a pod!

 

Look at the position of the low on the 3 bottom charts ECM far right compared to UKMO and GFS quite a big difference on the low

 

Then GFS and UKMO have the high in different position's and strength GFS 1035mb UKMO 1030mb

[Summer Sun]

NAO looks like it will be running on or just above the 0 line to mid month

 

[SMU]

Smity- The max COLDEST upper air available out of this would be circa -2 to -4 for Scotland & the NE, 0 to -2 for England-

 

Certainly cold enough for snow over Scottish hills- maybe even the north York moors- elsewhere sunshine, showers or longer spells of cold rain in the East-

 

We could see some England maxes of 7c on Friday / sat- which is very cold for the time of year-

 

The word frost will start to appear as well...- especially ground frost..

[Summer Sun]

Something brewing in the Atlantic to end ECM's run

 

 

With high pressure to our east and south it may take some time before it can get in fully

Edited October 5, 2013 by Summer Sun

[phil nw.]

First real incursion of colder Autumn air showing around midweek.

 

 

thanks to the Scandi.trough.

Still an anticyclonic and mainly dry theme though but that brief glancing northerly will cool things off here and the near continent.

Local fog and frost could start to feature in some forecasts later next week. 

 

[bluearmy]

now thats a run to turn ones mind to the long winter model watching that lies ahead ...............

[Scorcher]

Absolutely miserable weather ahead if the ECM comes off, I find it absolutely astonishing that some have been willing a change to this and are now getting what they wish for- I hope you enjoy the cold rain that looks to be heading our way- nice to know that somebody does! I fail to see how cold rain is better than the mild rain we had yesterday that so many were relentlessly moaning about on here.

[Richie V]

Wow, even more dtama tonight. I remain more stubborn than a stuck record..... Watch out for the atlantic power between days 6 - 9!

It's coming.

Just to boot, bbc weather warned of some quite strong winds for a time late mon and into tues next week.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfse_cartes.php?ech=3954&code=0&carte=1&mode=0&run=0

 

 

Whilst its game for a laugh the 12Z CFS from yesterday would set the pulses racing - snow pretty much on & off from December to late March-

 

with charts like this in the mix-

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run/cfs-0-3114.png?12

 

I have never seen cold like that in Europe-

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run3/cfs-2-3378.png?12

 

S

Edited October 5, 2013 by Steve Murr

[smithyweather]

Ain't no use to us in Europe though.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

Good evening. Here is tonight's look at the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday October 5th 2013.

 

All models show a North/South split over the next few dasy as High pressure develops close to the South while a cold front slips slowly South over the North. As a result the South will be dry and bright with some warm sunshine by day with the North seeing cloudier spells with occasional rain but with some drier and brighter spells in the North of this area too.

 

GFS then shows High pressure transfer to the West of the UK midweek with a cold front moving South over the UK lowering temperatures considerably and followed by the introduction to some showers in the SE at the end of the week extending to other areas next weekend as low pressure from Europe feeds West into Southern England. With High pressure having moved well away to Northern Scandinavia and shallow Low pressure over Southern England being reinforced by further troughs from off the Atlantic. The rest of the run sees changeable weather develop with more Atlantic mobility delivering some rain at times interspersed by drier spells too when temperatures return to close to average.

 

UKMO brings a cold front South midweek with a little rain in tow. Once passed colder and clearer air will follow with temperatures 4-5C lower than of late with night time levels particularly lower with the risk of patchy frost and fog in places.

 

GEM shows High pressure across the UK with fine and dry weather with temperatures somewhat down on values of late with mist and fog in places. later in the run dry weather persists and temperatures could recover somewhat again as a feed from the SE or South develops as the High slips SE into Europe.

 

NAVGEM follows a GFS type route tonight pulling a colder Northerly down over the UK midweek. High pressure stays in charge for a time with a trend towards moving it towards Scandinavia and introducing the risk of Low pressure over the far South later in the run with an increasing risk of showers.

 

ECM tonight shows a more unsettled period developing towards the end of the run as it too pulls Low pressure in from Europe late next week  and then weakens it in situ bringing showers or rain at times across the South late next week in rather chilly conditions too. Late in the run the Atlantic wakes up with a large depression throwing rain bearing troughs NE towards Western Britain at the end of the run.

 

The GFS Ensembles tonight have introduced a colder dip in uppers around the midweek period before a slow recovery takes place again. all through this very little rain is likely in the South. in the second period there is a greater chance of rain for all as the returned warmer uppers dissolve slowly back towards average levels by the end of the run. the operational run described above was a cold outlier in regard to the cooler interlude in the middle of the coming week.

 

The GFS Jet Stream forecast shows the flow setting up in a NE direction to the NW of Scotland in the next few days. later next week the flow tilts West to East over Northern Scotland.

 

In Summary there are some changes tonight as more models have picked up on the earlier isolated offering of a Northerly flow midweek which could change the complexion of the course of events thereafter. As it stands there is more support for Low pressure from Europe to make some inroads across Southern Britain with the chance of showers ever increasing late next week. Beyond that the door could be open to the Atlantic but I have the feeling we are going to see yet another period of uncertainty between the models on how things will pan out from the end of next week with plenty more swings and roundabouts to come in the coming days.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[Captain Shortwave]

Wow, I have to admit I'm feeling rather gutted to be honest.

Quite frankly the ECM is probably won of the worst runs I've seen in a long while. It has the get in the sandbags feel to it. That could be 4-5 days of continuous moderate to heavy rain for here. It doesn't get much worse than that, in fact that would beat summer 2012 in awfulness levels

At least in the reliable timeframe the GFS/UKMO keep the worst of the weather out to sea and there would be just a few scattered showers with some chilly nights before temperatures recover and conditions nationwide become dry and bright with temperatures close to or a little below normal for the time of year.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave