Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Frosty.]

There is something I would like to add, I was just about to post my opinion of the GEFS 06z mean when news of the met office update hit me, the 6z mean gives a completely misleading view of the outlook with a prolonged benign and very anticyclonic spell with pleasantly warm temperatures but with cool nights and overnight fog, this met office update has blown that idea out of the water, along with all the other previous output showing a prolonged fine and warm outlook, sometimes the model output as a whole turns out to be complete tosh.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Frosty.

[Captain Shortwave]

There is something I would like to add, I was just about to post my opinion of the GEFS 06z mean when news of the met office update hiit me, the 6z mean gives a completely misleading view of the outlook with a prolonged benign and very anticyclonic spell with pleasantly warm temperatures but with cool night and overnight fog, this met office update has blown that idea out of the water, along with all the other previous output showing a prolonged fine and warm outlook, sometimes the model output as a whole turns out to be complete tosh.

i think its worth waiting for the afternoon suite before passing judgement as the models may swing again to a previous outlook or even to a brand new one. the only model i will say has performed terribly is the ecm. cant bash the gfs just yet until its solution is proven to be wrong, though this mornings run seemed to be fishing for any kind of trend. For the ecm to swing that much at just 4/5 days away is shocking Edited October 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[draztik]

The updated MetO long range hinting at above average conditions for Southern Britain into November...

UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Oct 2013 to Sunday 3 Nov 2013:

Through the rest of October and the first part of November the most likely scenario is for northern and western parts of the UK to remain the most unsettled with slightly above average amounts of rainfall. Remaining parts of the UK are likely to see more average rainfall amounts. However, there are indications that temperatures may well remain close to or above normal throughout, especially in the south, meaning that the risk of frost may be lower than normal.

Updated: 1255 on Sat 5 Oct 2013

[draztik]

this will feel odd, given what we have been used to!

gfs 12z @t114

Edited October 5, 2013 by draztik

[Summer Sun]

I think its going to be close but no cigar for the northerly UKMO had yesterday GFS still saying no and UKMO backtracked this morning with the high also over the UK

 

 

It will be cooler for a time but its not going to be a lengthy cooler spell with warmer uppers waiting in the wings

 

[Frosty.]

The updated MetO long range hinting at above average conditions for Southern Britain into November...UK Outlook for Sunday 20 Oct 2013 to Sunday 3 Nov 2013:Through the rest of October and the first part of November the most likely scenario is for northern and western parts of the UK to remain the most unsettled with slightly above average amounts of rainfall. Remaining parts of the UK are likely to see more average rainfall amounts. However, there are indications that temperatures may well remain close to or above normal throughout, especially in the south, meaning that the risk of frost may be lower than normal.Updated: 1255 on Sat 5 Oct 2013

It's been saying that for days, given how the 6-15 day update has changed so dramatically today, I'm sure this will impact on the further outlook too once the fallout settles.

[Summer Sun]

Once the high pushes east again the cooler uppers soon get shunted away with Ireland first to see the warmer uppers

 

Edited October 5, 2013 by Summer Sun

[MR EXTREMES]

Once the high pushes east again the cooler uppers soon get shunted away with Ireland first to see the warmer uppers

 

I don't agree at all the ukmo aswell shows autumn slowly increasing its grip hate to blow my own trumpet but I did say this indian summer stuff was a little ott although the models suggested this it was clear the teleconnection were slowly drifting towards another fase. intresting stuff not going to be bitter cold fresh and settled with chance of showers into the east.

and heights might migrate ne se or north to be honest.

Edited October 5, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[SE Blizzards]

 

 

Frost alert!! 

 

That's a bit more like it, and it's how Autumn should be imo.

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs is trying to push heights ne

 

will it make it not likely but certain something a little cooler going to be a nice few days yet though.

gfs is trying to push heights ne

 

will it make it not likely but certain something a little cooler going to be a nice few days yet though.

[draztik]

It will be cooler for a time but its not going to be a lengthy cooler spell with warmer uppers waiting in the wings

Those warm uppers you mention have been squeezed, and the gfs keeps the cool trend into the weekend...

[Summer Sun]

GFS continues to push the high NE wards

 

 

 

Temperatures widely in the mid teens

 

 

UKMO ends with high pressure over the UK

 

 

GFS continuing to send the high NE wards

 

Edited October 5, 2013 by Summer Sun

[MR EXTREMES]

Those warm uppers you mention have been squeezed, and the gfs keeps the cool trend into the weekend...

and the warmest uppers are way way south its autumn for real now. cant wait im getting bored first frost aswell well for some exciting stuff.

GFS continues to push the high NE wards

 

 

 

Temperatures widely in the mid teens

 

 

UKMO ends with high pressure over the UK

 

cooler though its heading in the right direction.

ukmo is a good ending to if it went out any futher these heights would be heading northeast to easterly perhaps even a northeasterly.

Edited October 5, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Frosty.]

I don't think we can trust any op runs at the moment given what's happened today.

[Summer Sun]

Better view of UKMO at t144

 

[Frosty.]

Yes Gavin it looks good but it's completely different to the latest met office update, the outlook beyond midweek is as clear as mud.

[draztik]

GEM 12z has a similar take..

t120

tho, it clears these cool uppers to the east much quicker than the gfs..

Edited October 5, 2013 by draztik

[johnholmes]

I have written something in the Met O 6-15 day thread perhaps more suitable for this but I do wonder if some of you run by run fanatics ever read what you or others posted 24-36 hours ago?

It is quite funny how folk are now believing this colder option. I wonder just what the end result will be. I suspect some kind of half way house between what GFS suggested 24 hours ago and what it now suggests. The actual weather often ends up like that much to the chagrin of both professional and amateur forecaters.

Model watching is fun when you don't take it too seriously.

[draztik]

I have written something in the Met O 6-15 day thread perhaps more suitable for this but I do wonder if some of you run by run fanatics ever read what you or others posted 24-36 hours ago?It is quite funny how folk are now believing this colder option. I wonder just what the end result will be. I suspect some kind of half way house between what GFS suggested 24 hours ago and what it now suggests. The actual weather often ends up like that much to the chagrin of both professional and amateur forecaters.Model watching is fun when you don't take it too seriously.

people are just showing excitement at a possible change in conditions. This is all within the reliable timeframe, which only enhances the plausibility of such a trend taking hold. We may not possess your wisdom and experience*, but quit telling people how they should post/react.

[johnholmes]

people are just showing excitement at a possible change in conditions. This is all within the reliable timeframe, which only enhances the plausibility of such a trend taking hold. We may not possess your wisdom and experience*, but quit telling people how they should post/react.

 

humble apologies lad, I'll leave for now and have my dinner.

[MR EXTREMES]

agree with john it is indeed likely to be a half way situation but half way means more autumnal also I noticed that the nav gem has similar to the rest along with this mornings ecm so they are pretty much untided on a change to more average with a frost hear and there.

 

but its true theres gonna be more flips and flops than a Spanish flip flop lol

[smithyweather]

All I want for now is a frost. So that will do.

[CongletonHeat]

All I want for now is a frost. So that will do.

So you have said over and over again. this is the model discussion thread not a weather preferance thread .

[bluearmy]

 but quit telling people how they should post/react.

 

did he ?

 

i wonder how the winter will pan out on here if we don't get blizzards and frost fairs !   the pendulum swings back and forth.  wonder where ecm will take us this evening. whatever it spews out will have little weight re likely verification.

[Frosty.]

humble apologies lad, I'll leave for now and have my dinner.

John's vast knowledge and wisdom is one of the reasons I'm here, I hope what he said doesn't put you off posting your expert input john. :-) Edited October 5, 2013 by Frosty.