Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[NorthernRab]

Slightly off topic, but its way too early to be looking at trends going forward to winter isn't it?

 

The great thing about trends is that you can look for them months in advance, so nope, it's not too early to be looking into the beginning of winter in the long term 

[Summer Sun]

Slightly off topic, but its way too early to be looking at trends going forward to winter isn't it?

 

Didn't the temperature this time last year get up to around the 30C mark? And look what happened last winter; albeit belatedly.

 

No your thinking of October 2010 when it almost hit 30c earlier in October and we all know what followed, bitterly cold 2nd half of November and all of December (except one week mid month) with significant snow, this was followed by a slightly below average January and an above average February

 

We are doing much better this October than last year highest temp last October was just 18.8°C we've already got above 20c this year

Edited October 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[BlueHedgehog074]

The likelihood is that a compromise will be arrived at whereby there will be no northerly as such, just an anticyclonic circulation that briefly puts the UK just on the eastern flank of the High. But a more oval shaped High seems probable than anything over amplified at this time and it is likely to adjust east or SE'wards by next weekend

 

CS above describes the reasoning behind the more amplified solution of the UKMO very well

That would probably explain it then. Does look like at the end of that UKMO run that the High does want to try go South-Eastwards. But as you say, some sort of middle-ground-like solution is probably the way we'll head in.

[AWD]

No your thinking of October 2011 when it almost hit 30c earlier in October and we all know what followed, bitterly cold 2nd half of November and all of December (except one week mid month) with significant snow, this was followed by a slightly below average January and an above average FebruaryWe are doing much better this October than last year highest temp last October was just 18.8°C we've already got above 20c this year

Edited year for you!

[Dan the Man]

No your thinking of October 2010 when it almost hit 30c earlier in October

 

Blimey was it really that long ago!

[Scorcher]

Edited year for you!

 

I think he was referring to 2010, as last year November and December weren't cold. I don't remember the temperatures in October 2010 getting near 30C though- I seem to recall mid 20s?

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013100412/UN120-21.GIF?04-19

 

2 cold UKMO runs on the trot ( relative to time of year cold )-  cant be dismissed - also some support from NAVGEM- 

 

First model battle of the year-

 

UKMO 144

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013100412/UW144-21.GIF?04-19

 

GFS 144

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013100412/gfs-0-144.png?12

 

 

Complete miss from the GFS of the low pressure digging into Europe-  ( although it could be the UKMO wrong)

 

The UKMO would see the 0c isotherm arriving in the NE & E of the UK, however probably still pleasantly warm in the S & SW

 

 

S

Edited October 4, 2013 by Steve Murr

[AWD]

I think he was referring to 2010, as last year November and December weren't cold. I don't remember the temperatures in October 2010 getting near 30C though- I seem to recall mid 20s?

October 2011 was when we recorded temperatures widely in the high 20c's and near 30c, which I edited for him vice October 2010, which he stated.Obviously 2010 had the cold start to winter though.Anyway, best get back on topic before we get told off!

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

UKMO with a possibly Northerly (IMO I don't think it will happen) and GFS at the end of hi-res showing a proper autumn pattern (unsettled)

Could the HP not be around very long? (It doesn't look like its worth having anyway due to large cloud amounts)

It's nice to see some possible active weather in the models again. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Edited year for you!

 

 

Thanks In which case you can scrap the cold winter as the warm October in 2011 was followed by the mildest winter for 3 years

 

Edited October 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[phil nw.]

Yes i was just about to ask you all to get to the models please.

Edited October 4, 2013 by phil nw.

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensemble unsurprisingly says no once again to UKMO

 

 

 

It also remains keen on keeping high pressure very close to the UK even when we do enter an unsettled spell

 

 

So once again UKMO's northerly doesn't have ensemble support from GFS

 

Edited October 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013100412/UN120-21.GIF?04-19

 

2 cold UKMO runs on the trot ( relative to time of year cold )-  cant be dismissed - also some support from NAVGEM- 

 

First model battle of the year-

 

UKMO 144

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013100412/UW144-21.GIF?04-19

 

GFS 144

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013100412/gfs-0-144.png?12

 

 

Complete miss from the GFS of the low pressure digging into Europe-  ( although it could be the UKMO wrong)

 

The UKMO would see the 0c isotherm arriving in the NE & E of the UK, however probably still pleasantly warm in the S & SW

 

 

S

Hmm trouble is the GFS backed the UKMO this morning

 

And has subsequently moved to another more Atlantic based solution.

All eyes on the ECM, though I suspect it will look similar to this afternoons GEM run.

which inevitably means it won't because when I make statements like this I am always flipping wrong

Edited October 4, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

We would feel the chill.

 

 

 

Well in FI of course but makes a change from seeing temps in the high teens.

 

 

 

 

 

 

[SMU]

Remember the GFS has an atlantic / eastward bias- especially on the 12z-

 

So I would favour the UKMO currently ( as ever )

 

also the GFS ensembles-  again these are poor V the UKMO, but Again I would choose the UKMO-

 

Infact I would choose the UKMO over any GFS run of any time.

[No Balls Like Snow Balls]

Remember the GFS has an atlantic / eastward bias- especially on the 12z-

 

So I would favour the UKMO currently ( as ever )

 

also the GFS ensembles-  again these are poor V the UKMO, but Again I would choose the UKMO-

 

Infact I would choose the UKMO over any GFS run of any time.

 

 

I'd choose tea leaves over the GFS.

[SE Blizzards]

UKMO also has support (for what it's worth) from the latest CFS run.

 

UKMO...

 

 

CFS...

 

 

As u can see, very identical. Will be an interesting ECM coming up...

 

SE Blizzards

[SMU]

wow this is the CFS 850 chart at the same time!!!!

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m2/cfs-2-150.png?06

 

that's a shocker!!!

 

 

[smithyweather]

We would feel the chill.Rtavn21617.pngRtavn24017.pngWell in FI of course but makes a change from seeing temps in the high teens.

This may feel cool but it is just average here.

wow this is the CFS 850 chart at the same time!!!!http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/cfs/run1m2/cfs-2-150.png?06that's a shocker!!!

Would that produce snow though at low level?

[Summer Sun]

ECM once again refuses to back UKMO at t120

 

 

GFS at t120

 

 

GFS and ECM are in good agreement still as they lead the way

 

 

UKMO to compare

 

 

And t144 also see's ECM refusing to back UKMO

 

 

Again GFS is roughly in line pressure is further east buts its got the right Idea

 

 

UKMO to compare

 

 

GFS and ECM are leading the way still with UKMO on its own from the big 3

Edited October 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[MrSunshine]

This may feel cool but it is just average here.Would that produce snow though at low level?

 

-4 uppers would make it very marginal at low levels, uppers of -7 and below (preferably -10) would produce snow at all levels.

[Frosty.]

The ukmo model is usually pretty poor by T+144 hours, it obviously has issues and the ecm is the best model and it's showing a warm fine outlook which has been the trend for the last few days so the smart money is very much on a fine warm spell with temps up to 22c 72f again next week, as they were today in the south. :-)

[Cloud 10]

ECM,GFS and UKMO at 144 hrs.

 

ECM..  GFS..

 

UKMO..

 

 

UKMO>>>>>>>>

[Captain Shortwave]

GFS/ECM practically like for like even out to day 6, then they start to deviate as the ECM looks more willing for the high to hold on as opposed to the rather quick Atlantic breakdown from the GFS

Edited October 4, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Scorcher]

That ECM chart at 144 hrs is an absolute cracker- couldn't be much better at all for October 10th with the high centered to our east and low pressure to the north west of Ireland. It's certainly much closer to the GFS than the UKMO is to anything else at that time scale.