Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Frosty.]

I agree with polar maritime, I can understand the frustration which is growing but at least there are some teasing charts popping up now so something could be afoot.

[draztik]

NAEFS 0z also contradicting the ecm op, with the high moving east. Next week uncertain, as has been suggested.

[Cloud 10]

Can't remember ever seeing the ECM operational run switch so dramatically at day 5/6,an enormous pattern shift west from yesterday's 12z.

 

12z..   00z..

 

 

 

So much for the UKMO going in the shredder. 

 

Fascinating stuff!

[Frosty.]

Yep but it's never over until the fat lady sings and she is not singing yet :-)

[smithyweather]

There wouldn't be any snow on those charts, in fact even frosts would be quite limited to high ground and patchy stuff elsewhere. Most of the precipitation will end up in the south east where it will be entirely of rain. This is the beginning of October, not November.

Frankly the ECM is terrible for my location, 10C with lots of cloud and outbreaks of rain on and off for several days.

At least the NAVGEM has also changed sides

Definitely not clutching at straws

How would frost be limited to high ground! I've had frorst with plus 7 uppers before!!!

[draztik]

   So much for the UKMO going in the shredder.  

maybe that should be left for the MetO's text forecast. As unsettled weather in the NW looks very unlikely by its own fax and raw data.

[bluearmy]

The 00z ecm ens reflects the colder blast as is often the case when the whole suite becomes skewed somewhat. Looking at naefs, it would be quite a surprise if that depression makes it as far west as the ecm 00z suite indicates.

[Captain Shortwave]

How would frost be limited to high ground! I've had frorst with plus 7 uppers before!!!

Have you?

Is it like the 2C maxima you get during October quite often which is actually lower than the lowest recorded daytime maximum in Northern Ireland for October?

I'm just asking because the weather you experience seems to be a lot more extreme than what the climate of Northern Ireland actually suggest.

A hard frost with +7 uppers would need one heck of an inversion to set up, is it actually remotely possible?

Edited October 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Tamara]

Can't remember ever seeing the ECM operational run switch so dramatically at day 5/6,an enormous pattern shift west from yesterday's 12z.

 

12z..ECM1-144.gif   00z..ECM1-120.gif

 

 

 

So much for the UKMO going in the shredder. 

 

Fascinating stuff!

Yes indeed - bluearmy also suggested yesterday evening following my post that it was likely that the models would pick up on the initial signal from the UKMO. The EPS members this time yesterday had at least a minority of members supporting the more northerly solution and even the overnight GFS had indicated something more amplified. So whilst the signal may still prove to be overcooked, it certainly wasn't, and isn't, to be ignored

 

As said up the page, there is too much uncertainty for late next week ro call things with any confidence based on the information we can find available here - but it gives extra interest to the output updated later today

[Captain Shortwave]

Well by day 4 the GFS has changed, but I don't think it's backing the other models either

The high won't get much further north as there is energy piling over the top of the high.

Another option thrown into the ring

A wild polar vortex has appeared 

Going to be honest here, this run is probably going straight into the shredder

Edited October 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[smithyweather]

Have you?Is it like the 2C maxima you get during October quite often which is actually lower than the lowest recorded daytime maximum in Northern Ireland for October?I'm just asking because the weather you experience seems to be a lot more extreme than what the climate of Northern Ireland actually suggest.A hard frost with +7 uppers would need one heck of an inversion to set up, is it actually remotely possible?

Idk but i've recorded a frost in the summer (nearly quite often but one day in june 2012) so probably.Castlederg records 1c in june very often.http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/CASTLEDERG/06-2009/39040.htmhttp://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/CASTLEDERG/06-2011/39040.htmhttp://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/CASTLEDERG/06-2012/39040.htmhttp://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=United+K&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2012&mes=06&day=18&hora=18&ndays=1&Send=send Edited October 5, 2013 by smithyweather

[Cloud 10]

Yes indeed - bluearmy also suggested yesterday evening following my post that it was likely that the models would pick up on the initial signal from the UKMO. The EPS members this time yesterday had at least a minority of members supporting the more northerly solution and even the overnight GFS had indicated something more amplified. So whilst the signal may still prove to be overcooked, it certainly wasn't, and isn't, to be ignored

 

As said up the page, there is too much uncertainty for late next week ro call things with any confidence based on the information we can find available here - but it gives extra interest to the output updated later today

 

Yes indeed,lesson learnt for me. 

 

Even as we speak the gfs 06z is shifting everything west!

[Captain Shortwave]

Idk but i've recorded a frost in the summer (nearly quite often but one day in june 2012) so probably.

Castlederg records 1c in june very often.

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/CASTLEDERG/06-2009/39040.htm

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/CASTLEDERG/06-2011/39040.htm

http://www.tutiempo.net/en/Climate/CASTLEDERG/06-2012/39040.htm

http://www.ogimet.com/cgi-bin/gsynres?lang=en&state=United+K&osum=no&fmt=html&ord=REV&ano=2012&mes=06&day=18&hora=18&ndays=1&Send=send

Hmm you got a minimum of 1C on June 12th 2009, so I took a look at the chart for that day

Uppers are close to 0C so actually a frost in places would be possible here, I guess your location is quite prone to cold minima then. Kind of like Santon Downham in my region which always ends up being the coldest place in my part of the world.

Anyway back to the model discussion

[Cloud 10]

Two jetstream charts from the gfs for next thursday,one from the 00z and the other from this morning's 06z...

 

00z..  06z..

 

 

.....which leads to this comparison between the ecm 00z and the gfs 06z.

 

 

ecm..   gfs..

 

 

wtf?

 

 

[Richie V]

Yes cap shortwave, as I thaught, prehaps the gfs has begun the high flattening i've been barking about?!

Watch and learn lololol

[Tamara]

The updated MJO forecasts when they are available might give some insight into the model fluctuations. The UKMO model had suggested the greatest amplitude into Phase 7 which might explain where the trend for the High to buckle northwards started. The other models previously had a much weaker signal

[smithyweather]

Hmm you got a minimum of 1C on June 12th 2009, so I took a look at the chart for that day

Uppers are close to 0C so actually a frost in places would be possible here, I guess your location is quite prone to cold minima then. Kind of like Santon Downham in my region which always ends up being the coldest place in my part of the world.

Anyway back to the model discussion

It's ok just hate people calling me a liar.

[Captain Shortwave]

Ok the GFS has well and truly gone off the rails

Screaming westerlies for a few days and then the Atlantic simply dies,

Default to randomness

Edited October 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Well by day 4 the GFS has changed, but I don't think it's backing the other models either

The high won't get much further north as there is energy piling over the top of the high.

Another option thrown into the ring

A wild polar vortex has appeared 

Going to be honest here, this run is probably going straight into the shredder

There ya go, on netweather, shredders are free of charge, just in case the shredder is broken, here's a wheely bin

[Captain Shortwave]

There ya go, on netweather, shredders are free of charge, just in case the shredder is broken, here's a wheely bin

The GFS has simply gone mental in this run, after a Greenland high by day 8 the GFS then defaults the pattern in low resolution

 

Before building a huge Scandi high with a cold easterly wind

 

I have to admit that is a pretty specialist run there from the GFS, congratulations on wasting everyone's time with this 

[Frosty.]

It's like the gfs is in festive spirit..over 2 months early

[Cloud 10]

Updated 6-15 dayer from the met office talking about showers especially in the east for the end of next week,and also mention of frost which seems in line with ecm and ukmo output.

 

UK weather forecast - Met Office

[Cheshire Freeze]

The GFS has simply gone mental in this run, after a Greenland high by day 8 the GFS then defaults the pattern in low resolution

 

Before building a huge Scandi high with a cold easterly wind

 

I have to admit that is a pretty specialist run there from the GFS, congratulations on wasting everyone's time with this 

 

Yep I mentioned this last night. The end to the GFS run is cold, despite uppers being modest. By this time the continent is rapidly cooling and the dew points dropping....

[bluearmy]

looking at the london ens graph, the op run is indeed in line with the whole suite. given that it would have looked very odd superimposed on yesterdays suites, i would be giving it a few more runs before changing ht nuance of the forecast (as the met seem to have done)

[Frosty.]

BREAKING NEWS.....

 

 

The latest met office update briefly backs a more eastward version of what the ukmo 0z-12z showed yesterday plus a dash of what this morning's Ecm 00z op run showed and a smidge of the MO fax charts with significantly cooler air spreading south across the uk from later next week following a fine and relatively warmer spell but then with scattered showers spreading into the east of the uk for a while and a risk of a touch of overnight frost where winds fall light and skies clear, then it changes to more of a typical nw/se split with the most unsettled and windiest weather across the northwest corner of the uk and the best of the dry and brighter spells for the south and east with temperatures beginning to recover again later. It's nothing dramatic for later next week, there is no talk of wintry showers so it sounds very tame but at least it would feel like autumn has really arrived which frankly, it hasn't done as yet, the further outlook remains unchanged for now.

 

So, it looks like the high will be forced westwards in response to the cold surging south through scandinavia but whether it will just graze the uk to the east or become a direct hit, a glancing blow appears to be the current favourite.

Edited October 5, 2013 by Frosty.