Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Cloud 10]

Look at that wall of cold air advancing from the NE.

 

 

 

Almost looks like a bluearmy 

[smithyweather]

Thats actually pretty good but I would prefer it to be a little more west and on a more south westerly tranjectory.

[Geordiesnow]

Think there is too much emphasis at the moment on where people want the cold air to be, there is a strong trend for a cold plunge to hit from the Atlantic side of the Arctic, but how far South into Scandinavia remains a doubt and at this time of year, its not going to be strong enough to sustain so it has NO bearing on the winter ahead. 

 

For the UK, it does look a very dull and chilly outlook at the moment, with winds coming from the East in general for the foreseeable future. Quite autumnal and willl be a big change to what we had so far during this Autumn season.  

[Summer Sun]

ECM shows milder wetter weather returning next week with the Atlantic low and the high to our east dragging up warmer moist air

 

Edited October 9, 2013 by Summer Sun

[jethro]

*snip*

 

 

Who fancies a late southerly?

 

 

Ooo, yes please.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby after a short cold period temperatures will be recovering to higher levels again later next week

 

Good evening. Here is the report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday October 9th 2013.All models show the cold air establishing itself across the UK sandwiched between High pressure to the West and Low pressure to the East. Showers will push South down North Sea Coasts and some will be heavy with near gale winds. Through the following days all models show winds veering further towards the East and NE and remaining strong and cold for a time with rain at times affecting much of Southern Britain. Further North and the weather would stay dry and bright with sunny spells and light winds with the risk of frost and patchy mist night and mornings.

 

GFS shows winds steadily settling SW next week with less cold air moving across the UK. However, this comes at a price with Low pressure being steered slowly NE across Northern Britain with spells of rain and showers for all in brisk SW winds. Later in the run as the Low exits East the weather turns colder with a Northerly flow bringing temperatures well down but with High pressure moving across from the West a period of dry, cold and frosty weather with fog too seems likely before milder South-westerly winds return late in the run with a return to wet weather too.

 

UKMO tonight closes it's run with the UK under slack and benign conditions next Tuesday with a lot of cloudy but dry weather with the chance of the odd shower and temperatures recovering somewhat on previous days.

 

GEM shows a quiet start to next week too with a little rain at times in the South before it like GFS shows a SW wind developing with fronts crossing NE across the UK with winds strengthening further with time with spells of rain in rather milder weather than the days before.

 

NAVGEM shows deep Low pressure to the West next week with milder SW winds extending to all of Britain with rain at times.

 

ECM tonight shows a period of quiet and benign conditions across the UK early next week with temperatures slowly recovering from the weekend chill. Through the week Low pressure in the Atlantic carries troughs in towards the UK with milder SW winds and rain at times gradually becoming established across all areas late next week. 

 

The GFS Ensembles are a warmer set tonight with 850 uppers exceeding the average for mid October next week. There is a fair amount of Autumn rainfall to get through from most members which when coupled with mostly cloudy skies may temper the feel of conditions at the surface despite the higher uppers.

 

The Jet Stream is shown to be strongly blowing way North over Northern Scandinavia for several days before a new arm crosses the Atlantic at around the UK's latitude next week with the flow if anything drifting South of the UK at times putting the UK close to Low pressure systems and their attendant fronts.

 

In Summary tonight it looks like after a short cold period temperatures will be recovering to higher levels again later next week as the general consensus between the models suggest a deep Atlantic Low pushing fronts and milder air NE across all areas later next week. All areas will become subject to spells of rain and cloudy skies with brisk but mild SW winds for much of the time.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

 

[Scorcher]

ECM shows milder wetter weather returning next week with the Atlantic low and the high to our east dragging up warmer moist air

 

 

I didn't look at the models this morning but presumed there was a big freeze on the way judging by some of the comments I saw on here! Instead of seeing a new ice age as I expected I was quite pleasantly surprised to see these charts- looks like this cold spell might be short-lived.

[Barry12]

Patience grasshoppers, the cold and snow will come soon.

 

Edited October 9, 2013 by Barry95

[Mr Frost]

I didn't look at the models this morning but presumed there was a big freeze on the way judging by some of the comments I saw on here! Instead of seeing a new ice age as I expected I was quite pleasantly surprised to see these charts- looks like this cold spell might be short-lived.

Yes, warm rain rather than cold rain. Roll on a below average Winter...a few more tedious Weather weeks to get through first.

[Zenarcher]

My 5 day outlook

 

Thursday - High pressure covers most of the UK but as low pressure moves down from the North across Eastern parts they will see unsettled weather.

 

 

Mostly a dry, sunny and bright day across most parts of the UK and Ireland. Eastern parts of England are likely to stay cloudy with showers. Severe gales across the whole Eastern side of the UK and minimum temps 2c to 7c and maximum temps 8c to 12c.

 

Friday - High pressure covers most of the UK giving plenty of sunshine but the South East of England still has low pressure giving unsettled weather.

 

 

Staying dry, clear and sunny for most and improving for those in the East. South Eastern England is likely to stay cloudy and later see some rain. A strong breeze across England and Wales with gales around coastal and high ground areas. For the rest a light breeze. Minimum temps 0c to 8c and maximum temps 10c to 15c.

 

Saturday - High pressure moves further North giving the best of the weather in Scotland.

 

 

Cloudy across Ireland, Wales and England meanwhile Northern England and Scotland remain clear and sunny. A strong breeze with a risk of gales remains over Wales and England but for the rest a light breeze. Minimum temps 2c to 11c and maximum temps 11c to 16c.

 

Sunday and Monday

 

Sunday staying mostly cloudy over Ireland, Wales and England although later in the day England has a chance of clearing up with sunshine. As for Scotland stays mostly sunny with partly cloudy conditions. Monday rain moves across Ireland, Wales and England as Scotland stays sunny for most of the time.

 

[Scorcher]

Yes, warm rain rather than cold rain.Roll on a below average Winter...a few more tedious Weather weeks to get through first.

 

I will always take the warm variety if it's a choice between the two!

[joggs]

Even myself as a coldie do not see the point of looking for cold yet on the models as long as the euroasian snow cover advances this way and the cold is modelled in the right areas.2nd wk into november is when i start lol.I just see it as a waste of money re central heating!

[damianslaw]

Models in fair agreement this evening over the mid-term prospects i.e. out to around Tuesday and that is for the high pressure just to our norhwest to topple SE ushering in an easterly fllow for southern districts by the weekend and calm conditions further north,before the high is forced on a SE path thanks to energy off the atlantic injecting its force NE, but it looks another slow protracted affair, with low pressure to our west becoming rather unstuck as it attempts to cross the country throwing front after front NE, so a possible very wet spell of weather as we move through next week for NW parts.

 

I wouldn't be surprised to see a strong ridge develop over the western seaboard of the atlantic next week and we could easily be in cut-off low territory again as low pressure just sits to our west/southwest.

 

So we may well have to endure another mild spell of southwesterlies later next week, but the arctic profile will remain ripe for another northerly shot shortly thereafter - thanks to the position of the polar vortex and jetstream.

[Cloud 10]

Even myself as a coldie do not see the point of looking for cold yet on the models

 

Blasphemy! 

 

 

Looks like the ECM 12z op run was a bit progressive with its day 10 ideas when compared 

to the ensemble mean.

 

op run..  ens. mean

[Frosty.]

I just see it as a waste of money re central heating!

I think it would be worth paying a bit more to get a taste of that very cold weather across ne europe later this month and I still believe the retrograde block will have an impact on the uk weather in a few weeks time.

[SomeLikeItHot]

Big differences between the GFS 12Z and 18Z. The Atlantic kept at bay all through the high res.

eg

 

[Mucka]

ECM Op almost an outlier from day 8, very progressive.

 

http://www.meteo24.fr/meteo/eps/ensemble-tt6-london.gif

[Gaz1985]

By t312 we have a Bartlett/Euro high on our hands  , another 4 weeks after that if it's still there it would be an absolute mouthwatering prospect 

 

[SLEETY]

Dont understand why people look for cold in October,not going to have much impact for our island.Anyway perfect winter sypnotic patterns in October rarely persist through into winter ,you only have to look at previous cold Octobers to prove that to yourself.

 

I remember one October with a very strong Scandi high gave oslo a sub-zero mean month,and lots of talk of how bad the winter was going to be over Europe and the UK,but the  winter was very mild indeed.

Edited October 10, 2013 by SLEETY

[smithyweather]

Don't understand why folk look for 20c weather in October either.

[Sean Donoghue]

High Breaks down next week ,,,, noooooooo

[Frosty.]

Don't understand why folk look for 20c weather in October either.

I do, because it will probably be another 5½ to 6 months before that temperature is reached again, it's completely understandable.

[smithyweather]

But then again we haven't seen cold since May and in this country warmth is more common than cold so perhaps some should get over it and let the coldies have our turn!!

[Summer Sun]

ECM once again shows a return to milder air during next week

 

 

Edited October 10, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby becoming milder next week

 

Good morning. Here is this morning's account of the midnight outputs of the regular big 5 weather models for today Thursday October 10th 2013.

 

All models show all areas now under a much more seasonal spell of chilly north and eventually NE winds across the UK. A lot of dry weather will be shared for many areas especially those in the north and West close to high pressure. In the South and especially the East and SE of England some blustery showers are expected today with  a very strong wind with these conditions affecting other parts of the South of England and Wales over the weekend as the pressure pattern rotates to High to the North and Low pressure weakly near to or over the South by the end of the weekend. The start of next week is shown to become quite tranquil across the UK as the low over the South fills and the High to the North weakens for a time.

 

GFS then shows a South or SW flow developing towards the middle of next week, first in the West and then areas further East. Some occasional rain would accompany this change as well as returning normal temperatures. Then from the end of next week for the rest of the period low pressure steadily moves across the UK filling slowly but giving spells of windy and sometimes wet weather before a strong pressure build to the NE encourages Low pressure to slip SE over Southern areas with further spells of rain at times in temperatures near average but rather colder in the NE.

 

UKMO this morning closes it's run for next Wednesday with Southerly winds developing over the UK in response to a series of deep depressions ganging up to the West of the UK. Troughs from these would be expected to brush into at least Western Britain with occasional rain and temperatures near to or a little above average.

 

GEM also shows a Southerly flow developing next week though a little later in the week. The progress is unhindered though and by the weekend the weather will of turned wet and windy at times over all areas but reasonably mild. A powerful ex-tropical storm becomes caught up in the Low complex to the WSW at the end of the run and throws up the possibility of some very stormy conditions with very heavy rain just after the expiry day of the run.

 

NAVGEM shows the Atlantic becoming more dominant earlier next week with a spell of cloudy and rainy weather lasting several days in average temperatures as SW winds take hold. Towards the end of it's run some intensely cold air for October floods SW over Scandinavia and winds up a powerful storm system over the Baltic at Day 7 which leaves the UK in a more slack weather pattern with rather colder and dry conditions in the North with dry and less cold conditions for the South.

 

ECM edges Southerly and then SW winds into Britain as we progress through the middle and end to next week with rain at times becoming prominent after Wednesday, first in the west and to all areas by the weekend when winds could become strong at times and the rain heavy in places. Temperatures would recover to average or somewhat above though under this SW'ly regime.

 

The GFS Ensembles this morning show a short cold snap followed by some rather wet conditions developing over the weekend in the SE, areas further North soon after and the far North last of all. Rain at times is shown for all then for the rest of the run with mild temperatures easing back towards average at the end of the run in stronger winds than we have experienced for some time later in the output.

 

The Jet Stream still has it's main thrust well to the North of the UK near Scandinavia. A new arm then develops across the Atlantic on a much more Southerly latitude bringing depressions further South across the Atlantic to affect all of the UK later next week. Through week 2 there is little significant movement from it's end of next week position though at this range details are pointless.

 

In Summary after the current short but cold reminder that we are well into Autumn temperatures recover again next week as Southerly winds look like taking control albeit slowly. From midweek it looks like the tranquil conditions of the early week could be replaced by more traditional wet and windy type Atlantic based weather with lengthy dry spells at a premium. On the plus side despite some mouth watering cold pools floating about to the NE very early this season none look likely to affect the UK at this current time with temperatures always at or above the average with winds quite strong at times later next week but basically from a SW quadrant.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm