Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Paul_1978]

By t312 we have a Bartlett/Euro high on our hands , another 4 weeks after that if it's still there it would be an absolute mouthwatering prospect

No need to go overboard with the smileys.

[Yarmy]

By t312 we have a Bartlett/Euro high on our hands  , another 4 weeks after that if it's still there it would be an absolute mouthwatering prospect 

 

 

Gaz, how did you get the GFS 00z at 00:42am? I thought it didn't start coming out until about 4:30am?

[chionomaniac]

Gaz, how did you get the GFS 00z at 00:42am? I thought it didn't start coming out until about 4:30am?

I suspect that was a link to the previous run - because that is certainly not a Bartlett.

[Summer Sun]

I'm guessing this is what Gaz posted before it self updated

 

 

If it wasn't this then I don't know what he posted as there was no Bartlett high for the 24th on the 18z

Edited October 10, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Yarmy]

I'm guessing this is what Gaz posted before it self updated

 

 

If it wasn't this then I don't know what he posted as there was no Bartlett high for the 24th on the 18z

 

No, and the 18z shows a massive Arctic high with the PV entrenched over Russia. Hardly the sort of synoptics he'd be after.

 

 

 

But it's all nonsense anyway. The 00z is completely different again. As will the 06z, 12z, etc..

[Methuselah]

Please stick to discussing the models!

[Summer Sun]

No, and the 18z shows a massive Arctic high with the PV entrenched over Russia. Hardly the sort of synoptics he'd be after.

 

 

 

But it's all nonsense anyway. The 00z is completely different again. As will the 06z, 12z, etc..

 

Sorry to sound daft but is the PV the big blob of purple?

[Yarmy]

Sorry to sound daft but is the PV the big blob of purple?

 

Yes, at least it's what I'd call it. It's still a bit too early for the "proper" PV to organise itself, I think.

[Paul]

Another reminder - there is a zero tolerance policy in terms of point scoring, bickering, personal snipes and any posts which disrupt the thread or go against the spirit of the community. This includes posts which suggest other members are 'on a wind-up' just because they are offering a different opinion. (If you think someone is on the wind-up, or a troll please report them, don't respond to them in here as that just adds to any potential issues).

 

Any members who fall foul of this policy will find themselves unable to post in here for a period of time, so please do moderate your own posts, and consider what you're posting before hitting the submit button...

[Paul]

Don't understand why folk look for 20c weather in October either.

 

 

High Breaks down next week ,,,, noooooooo

 

 

But then again we haven't seen cold since May and in this country warmth is more common than cold so perhaps some should get over it and let the coldies have our turn!!

 

Not specifically picking on people here they're just the three most recent examples, but the posts above made this morning are not model discussion - these sorts of posts really need to go into the model banter/moan/chat thread:

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/76235-model-banter-moans-and-ramps/

[SMU]

Morning All-

 

Looking at the models over the last 24/36 hours- whilst we do get retrogression of the high the atlantic pattern does look to force through-  This will invoke the return of milder air -

 

The background is still polar blocking though & a split vortex- & Snow cover building up- edging west into scandi.

 

 

So for now, the exciting charts are on there way out ( for the UK) to be replaced by something more 'normal'

 

S

Edited October 10, 2013 by Steve Murr

[draztik]

The ECM 0z keeps low pressure anchored to the South East, with higher pressure for Scotland and the NW during its initial stages. The low affecting South Eastern parts will linger until Monday, brining outbreaks of rain for much of this period. From Wednesday, the Atlantic low will begin to show its cards, bringing rain to the Republic before extending into N.I. and other parts of the UK. Thursday and Friday appear to be similar, with rain/showers for most of the country. By the weekend, the NW can expect some heavier rain for a time,  as a deep low sits NW of Ireland at this stage... but most parts of the country will see rain at times from this associated low.

 

The accumulated rainfall from the ECM out to 240, shows the SE (week 1) and Southern Ireland (more from week 2) with the highest rainfall totals.

Edited October 10, 2013 by draztik

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a very slow moving pattern for the next 10 days or so, this means that for long periods, what you have, you will hold on to, for example, the southeast of the uk looks like being plagued by a persistent trough which only slowly fills but the residual weakness persists well into next week so an ongoing rather cloudy spell with some rain and showers, also feeling very cool compared to recently. Then we have northern uk where atlantic high pressure will be building across scotland before migrating to the north of the BI, so a more settled pattern further north with variable cloud and some sun but temperatures also struggling to recover much, eventually the high to the north extends a ridge south across all areas so a more generally settled few days by around the middle of next week but it then looks as though atlantic low pressure will push towards the uk and turn the weather more generally unsettled with outbreaks of rain and showers with strong sw'ly winds at times, but gradually turning milder again with temps eventually recovering back to average values, maybe a little higher towards the southeast by the end of next week.

[Man With Beard]

Charts in short term very reminiscent of early this year. Once the block established north of Scotland it continually reappeared for the following 3 months regardless of what the models suggested. Will be interesting to see if the same pattern crops up again and again this time. Is it just me or does it feel as if a climatic change might be going on? The northern block was so rare 1985-2007 but recently it seems to appear quite easily.

[shedhead]

06 GFS franks the trend to develop LP to our west and/or southwest next week, so with winds swinging back into a southerly quarter milder air appears very likely to return, along with showers or longer outbreaks of rain.  Perhaps not unsurprisingly given the expected set up Ireland and the westernmost third of the mainland looks wettest of all, with some significant totals possible towards the SW in particular later next week. Thereafter GFS's suggestion that the LP will drift east and set up shop over the UK as we enter the final third of October looks plausible, so perhaps a colder shot may be possible later this month if it eventually edges even farther east, but all that is currently a long way off and subject to major change. 

Edited October 10, 2013 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run is close to what the Ecm 00z ens mean shows until later next week, it extends a ridge south as the remnants of the persistent trough gradually pushes away from the south and southeast of the BI, the ridge is not as robust looking as the ecm but it still indicates a more settled interval through the middle of next week and then it shows atlantic low pressure becoming the dominant feature, however, it struggles to push eastwards across the uk as high pressure builds further southeast, most significantly, after a rather cool more seasonal spell, there are strong indications it will become much milder by the end of next week with winds veering s'ly to sw'ly and the south/southeast could become rather warm again with temperatures into the mid 60's F with longer sunny spells and less in the way of rain but temps closer to average in the wetter & windier north and west. Later in the run, high pressure builds northeastwards across the uk for a few days but the run ends with a threat of much more unsettled and windy weather to close out the last few days of october,

[Gavin Hannah]

 

At t120 here, just check out the cold air spilling south over Russia.....The snow cover is going nuts this year and then this just puts the icing on the cake as it were!

[shedhead]

 

At t120 here, just check out the cold air spilling south over Russia.....The snow cover is going nuts this year and then this just puts the icing on the cake as it were!

Problem is though it's only mid Oct and for the next 4 to 6 weeks at least blowtourch SW'erly can blast their way well east of the Urals, so chances are the early snow cover may well struggle to hold on - especially IF the kind of pattern suggested in deep FI sets up.

Edited October 10, 2013 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06Z mean shows a more generally settled spell during the middle of next week, replacing the cool and unsettled conditions across the south/se as the culprit trough finally fills and drifts away with a nice pressure rise for a few days, meanwhile, the northern third of the uk will have already been fine and settled but rather cloudy at times but with temps struggling in the low teens celsius. Then low pressure spreads in off the atlantic but it mainly affects the northwest corner of the uk with a nw-se split developing with pressure rising to the southeast drawing much milder sw'ly winds up across the uk, the north and west of the uk (especially n.ireland, cumbria & scotland) look like becoming generally unsettled and windy at times but at least it will be milder than now, the southeastern half of england eventually enjoying the sunniest and mildest / warmest weather with temperatures well into the 60's F again, nearer mid to high 50's F for the far northwest. So, after a spell of crisp, refreshing conditions which has finally made it feel like october for the first time, it looks like gradually warming up again by the second half of next week, especially towards the end of next week, there is already pretty solid agreement across the various model output.

Edited October 10, 2013 by Frosty.

[cobbett]

A possible 70f Frosty ? Now that would be epic !

[Frosty.]

A possible 70f Frosty ? Now that would be epic !

It's possible cobbett with winds eventually coming up from the azores or even from due south from southern europe.

[Methuselah]

It's possible cobbett with winds eventually coming up from the azores or even from due south from southern europe.

Possible, of course; but, around this time last week, we were in the process of preparing for for 24 degrees? Always be prepared for a sudden and unexpected change...

[Frosty.]

Possible, of course; but, around this time last week, we were in the process of preparing for for 24 degrees? Always be prepared for a sudden and unexpected change...

Agreed pete, the models pulled the rug from under some of us last week, but again there is good agreement from the gefs mean & ecm ens mean for a significant recovery in temps later next week and some dry and sunny weather eventually returning to the southeast of the uk.

[cobbett]

Agreed pete, the models pulled the rug from under some of us last week, but again there is good agreement from the gefs mean & ecm ens mean for a significant recovery in temps later next week and some dry and sunny weather eventually returning to the southeast of the uk.

Seems to tie-in with the metoffice update with a hint of above avg temps for the south anyway

[Frosty.]

Seems to tie-in with the metoffice update with a hint of above avg temps for the south anyway

Yep, all the model output I have seen so far today points in that direction.