Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Captain Shortwave]

To be honest if things had played out like the ECM by now I think most would take this

Settled with sunny spells and temperatures around average.

[Frosty.]

Hmm yeah the ecm 12z looks a tad different to last night

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends mild with a big area of high pressure over mainland Europe returning and drifting to the UK

 

Edited October 11, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Skullzrulerz]

ECM ends mild with a big area of high pressure over mainland Europe returning and drifting to the UK

 

At least eastern europe,norway,sweden,finland will be cold good thing for them if any snow cover and hope that it wont melt.

[Frosty.]

At least eastern europe,norway,sweden,finland will be cold good thing for them if any snow cover and hope that it wont melt.

It probably will melt when the pattern becomes more mobile since its only october.

[Summer Sun]

At least eastern europe,norway,sweden,finland will be cold good thing for them if any snow cover and hope that it wont melt.

 

Won't take much for the warmer uppers to move in and melt it though given its only October still any gains could be lost quite quickly

[Frosty.]

Won't take much for the warmer uppers to move in and melt it though given its only October still any gains could be lost quite quickly

I agree gavin, our mild weather will eventually be shunted further east and north across the cold areas.

[Frosty.]

There is nothing nasty lurking at the end of the month according to the GEFS 12z mean, looks fairly benign the further south you are and a bit windier and more unsettled further north with mild air across the far south, progressively closer to average further north/nw, a bit chillier across scotland but quite an average looking pattern overall.

Edited October 11, 2013 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

What a difference 24 hours makes, last night I got a bit carried away with the stunning Ecm 12z T+240 hours chart saying make it so...snow  and then tonight we have...make it...oh no..ah well. such are the pitfalls in model watching, i'm sure captain shortwave will also see the funny side of this..

[Skullzrulerz]

What a difference 24 hours makes, last night I got a bit carried away with the stunning Ecm 12z T+240 hours chart saying make it so...snow  and then tonight we have...make it...oh no..ah well. such are the pitfalls in model watching, i'm sure captain shortwave will also see the funny side of this..

Because models are so annoying.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby becoming mild and wet from mid next week, no real cold in sight

 

Good evening folks. Here is the Friday evening look at the 12 noon outputs of GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Friday October 11th 2013.

 

All models show a NW/SE split tonight with the NW of Britain seeing the best of the dry and bright weather with temperatures lasting through the weekend. In the SE and East a small but dominant Low pressure area will ensure much more unsettled conditions here with rain, heavy at times swirling around in the cyclonic winds. Early next week the Low in the SE fills up and slowly moves away East. At the same time Low pressure in the Atlantic sends a trough East and NE across the Atlantic and across the UK with rain and fresh to strong but milder winds for all areas.

 

GFS then shows unsettled conditions throughout the remainder of the run with Low pressure areas moving East across the UK with attendant troughs spilling East too giving all areas some copious rainfall with temperatures largely on the mild side of average but there could be temporary incursions of cooler weather at times in the North.

 

UKMO shows the UK under a strong SW flow by next Thursday with cloud and spells of rain in temperatures well up to average and probably above.

 

GEM shows a very unsettled and windy spell from the middle of next week with West or SW winds strong at times carrying periods of rain, heavy in places. Once again the ex tropical storm is still down to the SW at the end of the run, likely to influence the weather in the days following the end of the run with further wind and rain.

 

NAVGEM shows Low pressure anchored over the Atlantic later next week with a SW flow delivering spells of rain and showers in mild but strong SW winds.

 

ECM has Low pressure stretched firmly across the Uk later next week before within 24 hours much of the UK portion of this has dissolved into a High pressuure ridge which builds further close to the East of the UK late in the run. After a very wet period late next week better weather arrives almost out of the blue with a fine and dry weekend for many next weekend followed by a strengthening Southerly flow and thicker cloud edging in from the West. 

 

The GFS Ensembles show broadly fairly average temperatures over the coming few weeks, perhaps bordering on rather mild at times, that is after this weekends chilly feel in the South. There will be a fair amount of rain at times too with winds quite strong too from the SW as next week and the week after passes.

 

The Jet Stream is currently flowing well North leaving Greenland across to Northern Scandinavia. Over the next few days this weakens substantially and hands the baton to a new arm at much more Southerly latitudes across the Atlantic towards the South of the UK later next week. It then looks reluctant to move far from this position for the remainder of the output.

 

In Summary tonight the general consensus is for a spell of mild and wet weather to arrive by the middle of next week with some strong SW winds for most. ECM has a strange transformation within 24 hours late next week from wet and windy Friday to dry and fine over the weekend, not sure how that evolution came about but most other output keeps Low pressure firmly in control throughout all of the length of their outputs with no real cold weather in sight.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[Frosty.]

Because models are so annoying.

cheer up....it's not even mid october yet, there will be lots of ups and downs for the next 5 months.

[Yarmy]

So the ECM's flirty T240 has gone tonight. No real surprise and the cold hadn't actually arrived even then, just looked like it would afterwards. Bigger picture is that the PV is in bits and all over the place and there's lots of snow potential all over the NH. Early days though.

Lots of cold about. Winter proper is going to be full of teases, I think, hiding behind the sofa as the outputs roll out. Happy days :-)

[Summer Sun]

ECM ensemble out to day 10 maintains decent uppers over the UK

 

 

Pretty much around average

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Because models are so annoying.

plenty of time yet still autumn theres nothing wrong with average for otober )

[Frosty.]

I agree Yarmy, I don't think any of us will be glued to the models in the wee small hours anticipating anything wintry for a good while yet. :-)

[johnholmes]

The anomaly charts over the past two days have all, not entirely similar, shown a predisposition to having a flow over the Atlantic at 500mb, with the trough to the west tending to flatten out with time and an unsettled as opposed to a settled look. No sign of any cold outbreak looking at the wave spacing certainly in the 6-15 day time frame and probably further out.

[Richie V]

Sorry steve, my bad. I should have said watch out for the models to get a handle on the atlantic return in 6 plus days, not the actual return.

Hum.. Hate to burst the bubble- If we are at day 6 then your forecast is for this atlantic onslaught at day 7 / 8 & 9- well there is NO atlantic within these days- 24/48/72 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101100/ECH1-24.GIF?11-12 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101100/ECH1-48.GIF?11-12 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101100/ECH1-72.GIF?11-12  The only day the atlantic is predicted to arrive day 6 on the UKMO- which is day 12 for you- http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013101100/UW144-21.GIF?11-07 S

[lorenzo]

18z GFS looking sensible so far......

[Frosty.]

18z GFS looking sensible so far......

Hehe I've heard the 18z called many things but sensible is a first :-) it must have skipped the pub tonight then.

[Snowman.]

Hehe I've heard the 18z called many things but sensible is a first :-) it must have skipped the pub tonight then.

 

Have you seen it? Its had a few.

[Panayiotis]

Just some charts from the latest 9month and 1month CFS for November:

Notice the Greenland heights develop, I will be keeping my eye on these runs in the future to see if there is any consistency. From September I thought that November could be an interesting month, we shall see...

Edited October 11, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Cloud 10]

^^^^

 

The 00z cfs for November doesn't look particularly thrilling,i'm assuming the 12z was better. 

 

 

Some very unsettled weather showing on the overnight runs,the gem still showing that FI storm as well.

 

 

 

Edited October 12, 2013 by Cloud 10

[joggs]

Lack of posts tells the story in reflection to the models with even the pub run staying sober last night lol.A few days off now before i start viewing them for the mad season.Cheers again to all who contribute.

[MR EXTREMES]

as I suggested the models are wobbling but what is amazing is the amount of cold air to the north in all direction incredible,

and I suggested northern areas could get a real blast of cold air I stand by what im seeing southern areas look average or slightly above,keep watching its building brrrrrrrrr