Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[draztik]

summer sun, those thinking it would snow in the near term were living in a bubble. Looking at the gfs 12z we are seeing classic autumn at work... Wet a lot of the time, windy at time, mostly cloudy...and temps around average.

[Summer Sun]

summer sun, those thinking it would snow in the near term were living in a bubble. Looking at the gfs 12z we are seeing classic autumn at work... Wet a lot of the time, windy at time, mostly cloudy...and temps around average.

 

Yep some were getting a little excited I think by a few colder runs

 

all in all we look like entering a typical Autumnal spell

 

For the 20th to 27th the met office forecast ends with this

 

Temperatures probably on the warm side of average, with some mild nights.

 

With wind, rain and all the cloud nights would certainly be mild

Edited October 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

SS

You are also posting like what you see is a 'given'. 

 

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

SS

You are also posting like what you see is a 'given'. 

 

BFTP

 

Given what the met offices forecasts (text) have been saying I can't see us seeing anything overly cold for a while yet

[karlos1983]

Yep some were getting a little excited I think by a few colder runs all in all we look like entering a typical Autumnal spell For the 20th to 27th the met office forecast ends with this Temperatures probably on the warm side of average, with some mild nights. With wind, rain and all the cloud nights would certainly be mild

It is just 1 run, could easily flip the other way tomorrow morning, and of course the ECM is yet to roll out.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yep some were getting a little excited I think by a few colder runs

 

all in all we look like entering a typical Autumnal spell

 

For the 20th to 27th the met office forecast ends with this

 

Temperatures probably on the warm side of average, with some mild nights.

 

With wind, rain and all the cloud nights would certainly be mild

 

I wasn't getting excited by cold runs, its only 0ct, and I live in a lousy location for 0ct snow, lets have it warm for rest of 0ct, then turn cold mid Nov, when snow is possible for low levels in the south

[UV-RAY]

Given what the met offices forecasts (text) have been saying I can't see us seeing anything overly cold for a while yet

I would agree with that Gav as it stands, possibly something colder towards the back end of the month into November but that's a long, long way off.

[Richie V]

SSYou are also posting like what you see is a 'given'. BFTP

he aint far off the money in my opinion my dear boy. Watch for our ferind the Canadian vortex. Edited October 13, 2013 by Richie V

[TootyFruity]

he aint far off the money in my opinion my dear boy. Watch for our ferind the Canadian vortex.

What influence would the Canadian vortex have on our weather ?

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

he aint far off the money in my opinion my dear boy. Watch for our ferind the Canadian vortex.

This week is fine, but deep FI,,,Gav posts t300+ as 'given' charts...they ain't

 

BFTP

What influence would the Canadian vortex have on our weather ?

LP systems going up the GIN corridor and long fetch SW'ly winds with low pressure dominating to our NW with a jetstream reamining to our north.. 

 

BFTP

Edited October 13, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Cloud 10]

After last week's model fiasco nothing is off the table,the 12z GEM being a case in point.

 

[Summer Sun]

Although GEM is a bit slower we still get the same result with milder uppers sweeping across the UK

 

 

Over to ECM now which is out to Friday its less cold so far

 

 

00z to compare

 

Edited October 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Captain Shortwave]

After last week's model fiasco nothing is off the table,the 12z GEM being a case in point.

 

gem-0-108.png

The GEM seems very out of kilter with GFS/UKMO and ECM even at day 4

ECM looks a drier run in the early stages though

12C uppers pushing out of France, the weekend looks mild to warm (North to South) but unsettled according to the ECM

Edited October 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Skullzrulerz]

Looks like its going to cold until mid week mild air kicks it out.

[Summer Sun]

ECM is certainly going milder this evening as per GFS

 

 

Milder but turning wetter sums up ECM though it won't be raining all the time so in drier spells it should feel quite pleasant given we'll be exchanging cold easterly winds for mild south westerlies

Edited October 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[ANYWEATHER]

The polar vortex remains at the the top of the Earth on this run, but such a strong vortex sends the Jet way south, .......

[Chris K]

ECM is certainly going milder this evening as per GFS

 

 

As much as it's great for your input on milder uppers SS, it would be helpful to any newcomers to the thread on details of what surface weather is likely to accompany these charts you post. 

 

With the trough to our W/SW influencing our weather for the foreseeable, the milder temps will somewhat feel tampered by any wind and rain... perhaps feeling a bit better if any sunshine peeks through, I'll give you that.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101312/ECH1-192.GIF?13-0

 

Like a Yorkshire terrior yapping away - the split flow over western Greenland is noted.... If you want 1 single feature in winter this would be near the top of your list...

 

S

Edited October 13, 2013 by Steve Murr

[MR EXTREMES]

As much as it's great for your input on milder uppers SS, it would be helpful to any newcomers to the thread on details of what surface weather is likely to accompany these charts you post. 

 

With the trough to our W/SW influencing our weather for the foreseeable, the milder temps will somewhat feel tampered by any wind and rain... perhaps feeling a bit better if any sunshine peeks through, I'll give you that.

for any new people on this forum id be careful of being dragged into the ss post!

all I can say is the northern hemisphere profile and model are not screaming heat wave 18c max if not lower.

 

over all treand is good if not wet and at time windy none of the models show the low heights progressing any futher than the uk also chance of something wintry for the north.

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101312/ECH1-192.GIF?13-0

 

Like a Yorkshire terrior yapping away - the split flow over western Greenland is noted.... If you want 1 sing feature in winter this would be near the top of your list...

 

S

little more time and these charts will be something very good for winter.

[MR EXTREMES]

for any new people on this forum id be careful of being dragged into the ss post!

all I can say is the northern hemisphere profile and model are not screaming heat wave 18c max if not lower.

 

over all treand is good if not wet and at time windy none of the models show the low heights progressing any futher than the uk also chance of something wintry for the north.

little more time and these charts will be something very good for winter.

and im sometimes irritated by ss post sorry mods cant buy into this its milder chart lets add the real detail please average is the right term.

[Captain Shortwave]

and im sometimes irritated by ss post sorry mods cant buy into this its milder chart lets add the real detail please average is the right term.

To be honest if you want to moan at SS, maybe you should moan about what the surface conditions are being shown over the UK, mild south to south west flow throughout at the moment. GFS says 20C for Saturday and the ECM if anything shows an even warmer flow from the continent so in any sun the temperature could reach 70F in the south. After the weekend, simple rinse and repeat

Heights over Greenland and Europe both equally persistent, where else is any low pressure going to go, we are stuck like this until either one of the two highs give way. Which at the moment is neither even by day 9/10

Edited October 13, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

t216 sees colder uppers making inroads to Scotland whilst in the south we see +8 uppers across a lot of England, wales and Ireland

 

 

Again there could be some rain around maybe even snow on the highest ground of Scotland but for most of England and Wales it remains mild

 

ECM ends with cooler uppers for the far north of Scotland whilst the rest of the UK remains milder with winds continuing to come from the south west

 

 

as per t216 there could be some rain around maybe even snow on the highest ground of Scotland but for most of England and Wales it remains mild

 

Overall there is no real cold in sight away from northern Scotland for a while yet, what we seem to be moving to now is some more typical Autumnal weather windy, quite cloudy though brighter spells are always possible from south westerlies especially the further east you are and temperatures at or slightly above average away from parts of Scotland

Edited October 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Rain looks to be the key talking point this second half of October. Sadly, flooding could well be an issue across quite a few parts I think.

[AWD]

With a thermal gradient as steep as this across the UK;

As well as strong steering winds aloft;

There won't just be some rain around, there would be a hell of a lot of rain in certain locations. Being FI etc, detail is obviously untrustworthy but the trend of milder air to the south and colder air to the north with the threshold somewhere across the UK is gaining support amongst the NWP. I certainly don't see a settled spell developing anytime soon, rather the opposite intact, with a gradual decline to rather inclement conditions in the second half of the month.

Rain rather than temperature could be the more noteworthy weather type for the UK.

[UV-RAY]

and im sometimes irritated by ss post sorry mods cant buy into this its milder chart lets add the real detail please average is the right term.

MR, SS isn't controlling the model output or trolling, he's merely commenting on what it's showing. Until we lose that big fat euro high we will be stuck in no mans land if it's cold your after. Remember though it's the bigger picture which is more important and as long as those heights stay strong to our NE then it's only a matter of time before we see a far more favourable set up for cold, also it's only October. Edited October 13, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer