Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Skullzrulerz]

 

 

Well then..

Cold.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101412/ECH1-216.GIF?14-0

 

Lovely winter 'type' pattern continues...

 

just a couple of hundred miles south to come....

 

S

[Summer Sun]

Cold.

 

Not yet

 

[Summer Sun]

t240 ends with some cooler uppers moving into Scotland

 

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101412/ECH1-240.GIF?14-0

 

Day 11 would be tasty.....

 

Steve

[Captain Shortwave]

Well again it's the ECM T240 tease

3rd time lucky or will it simply dump the run in the morning

Other than that the output this evening has been diabolical 

Edited October 14, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Skullzrulerz]

Not yet

 

I was talking about this one 

http://www.meteociel...H1-240.GIF?14-0

[karlos1983]

Here it goes, this is my outlook on the last frames of the ECM.

240 is a stunner in my eyes, euro heights shifting east, which pushes the low over Eastern Europe off to North Russia, which in turn allows the Heights over Greenland to extend a bit further south, opening the door to North/North Easterly cold?

Now I know ithas little chance of verifying so far out,but just what I'm seeing on the "current output"

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=240&mode=1&map=1&archive=0

[ANYWEATHER]

Ecm shows in the words of  "Jerry Lee Lewis" Theres a whole lotta  shaking  Blocking going on!!!  

[SLEETY]

t240 ends with some cooler uppers moving into Scotland

 

In all the years I have been model watching I cant recall seeing so much intensity of cold in the Arctic for mid october before.I shudder to think how cold Dec,Jan,Feb could be IF this trend continues.

Edited October 14, 2013 by SLEETY

[cooling climate]

With further ridging and wave breaking occurring on the Pacific side which will

aid in more HLB's and a negative AO we may well see a much colder pattern

start to emerge for our neck of the woods as the ECM tonight is hinting at.

[Snowman.]

In all the years I have been model watching I cant recall seeing so much intensity of cold in the Arctic for mid october before.I shudder to think how cold Dec,Jan,Feb could be IF this trend continues.

Planet is broken, I demand a refund.

[Frosty.]

Another T+240 Ecm tease, I wonder what JH thinks :-) will the 500mb anomaly charts support it? Will the ecm still show it tomorrow or will it crash and burn as usual.

[TootyFruity]

But hasn't the GFS got the polar vortex on the move to a nasty place ?

[AWD]

Another T+240 Ecm tease, I wonder what JH thinks :-) will the 500mb anomaly charts support it? Will the ecm still show it tomorrow or will it crash and burn as usual.

I don't think the EC 500mb anomaly output is going to help John too much tonight; ;)Just a case of patiently waiting I think.

[Gaz1985]

Another T+240 Ecm tease, I wonder what JH thinks :-) will the 500mb anomaly charts support it? Will the ecm still show it tomorrow or will it crash and burn as usual.

 

I think the latter is most likely.

[karlos1983]

But hasn't the GFS got the polar vortex on the move to a nasty place ?

Yes,but it's the GFS, it'll probably shift it to Mexico come tomorrow morning :-)

[Frosty.]

I don't think the EC 500mb anomaly output is going to help John too much tonight;

image.jpg

Just a case of patiently waiting I think.

Yeah....what could possibly go wrong :-)

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, wet, windy and mild no signs of anything specifically cold or long lasting settled spells in the foreseeable future.

 

All models show a spell of milder Atlantic SW winds around Low pressure out to the West from midweek on. The North will stay rather chillier for a while with rain likely here too with time with an unsettled but relatively mild weekend likely for all.

 

GFS then takes us through next week with and the remainder of the run with periods of rain and strong winds with just brief drier periods as well. Things would remain mild everywhere with just brief slightly cooler interludes possible in the far North

.

UKMO tonight shows a broad trough and Low pressure lying WSW to ENE across the North of England and Ireland with mild SW winds with rain and showers to the South and cooler ESE winds and wet weather to the North over Scotland.

 

GEM shows unsettled and possibly stormy conditions for a time next week before colder weather plunges down from the North with wintry showers in the North for a time before quieter more settled weather with frost at night develops towards the end of the run with mist and fog likely too.

 

NAVGEM too shows mild SW winds and spells of rain across England and Wales at the start of next week with cooler but still unsettled weather persisting in the North under cyclonic winds at times.

 

ECM shows unsettled, wet and windy weather still affecting the UK nationwide in strong to gale force winds at times a week from now. Towards the middle of next week things turn colder from the North while the weather remains unsettled, windy and often wet. 

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show unsettled and wet weather for most areas over the coming week or two. Temperatures are largely shown to be close to average with any short interludes of cooler conditions restricted to the North.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

Edited October 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Well with the GEM and ECM 12z going for cold tonight, and not forgetting the end of the GFS 06z earlier....things have suddenly and out of nothing, become very interesting. :-)

[bluearmy]

the wondrous winter patterns continue to show on the fi nwp and inching closer. as we head into the second half of october, i begin to wonder if a cold outbreak early november could actually deliver something worthwhile to the uk from a wintry perspective. I wouldnt expect this to continue through november though, and a positive AO switch is perhaps on the agenda ?

[Mapantz]

Well with the GEM and ECM 12z going for cold tonight, and not forgetting the end of the GFS 06z earlier....things have suddenly and out of nothing, become very interesting. :-)

 

Well .. not really, are they? Short term is where it counts so saying they're going for cold is a bit  misleading. I would expect the FI end of the charts to typically show some cold air close by at this stage of the year. T+216 and T+240 do look rather good on the ECM i will admit, but if there was a T+264, i'm not sure it would be what you're expecting. Watch it all vanish again tomorrow!  

Edited October 14, 2013 by Mapantz

[Captain Shortwave]

Why do british people always have to be so negative! It is possible for something to verify you know.

Surely it's the definition of realism, fact remains we have seen a few cold ECM solutions at day 9/10 which have not verified and until the ECM can show some consistency in it's output then it's only one solution in a wide variety of solutions which include average and mild solutions to boot.

For the moment I am sticking to a wet and average to mild outlook for the foreseeable but if the ECM chucks out another developing northerly tomorrow morning then I might start to become interested 

Edited October 14, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Mapantz]

Why do british people always have to be so negative! It is possible for something to verify you know.

 

It's in our nature! :lol:

 

I never say never, but sometimes you just have to be in check. I do agree with many other posts regarding cold potential in November though.

[karlos1983]

Why do british people always have to be so negative! It is possible for something to verify you know.

From personal experience, it's because we have seen much better model outputs at +72 hours out, beast from the east imminent, for it to disappear the next morning which is sole destroying, all because of a pesky shortwave (not that I'm bitter about it). No amount of positive thinking will change what will be. A sense of realism is best practice.looks good though for mid Autumn Edited October 14, 2013 by karlos1983