Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Cloud 10]

Good support for the ecm operational run from the ens. mean for day 10.

 

op run..  ens.mean..

 

 

 

[karlos1983]

May have to hang on for the pub run tonight following the ECM's last few frames!

How's that for positive thinking ;-)

[Frosty.]

It's amazing how quickly things can change, I suddenly have more belief that the first cold spell of the next five months might arrive much sooner than I dared to expect. I think we are in for a very exciting late autumn / early winter onwards. :-)

Edited October 14, 2013 by Frosty.

[Richie V]

C10...... Correct me if i'm wrong but that ens mean and op screams atlantic influence to me does it not? Height anoms over euro and the vast majority of NH heights on the Siberian and Alaskan side of the world. An open invite for raging zonal conditions if this holds true.

[harryc]

All this talk of cold in the far reaches of model fantasy land, the experts at the Met are not having any of it.

H

[Cloud 10]

C10...... Correct me if i'm wrong but that ens mean and op screams atlantic influence to me does it not? Height anoms over euro and the vast majority of NH heights on the Siberian and Alaskan side of the world. An open invite for raging zonal conditions if this holds true.

 

Certainly very unsettled for the UK,although i wouldn't call it raging zonal with the Polar Vortex modeled towards Siberia.

 

[johnholmes]

I don't think the EC 500mb anomaly output is going to help John too much tonight;

image.jpg

Just a case of patiently waiting I think.

 

It has been missing more than present 00 and 12z over the past few days. Has anyone any idea what the issue is please?

[johnholmes]

Another T+240 Ecm tease, I wonder what JH thinks :-) will the 500mb anomaly charts support it? Will the ecm still show it tomorrow or will it crash and burn as usual.

 

It is in the same ball park so to speak as GFS at 240 hours, obviously several degrees further on hence the colder air further south.

Neither 6-10 or 8-14 NOAA really back this up, nor does either the GFS anomaly nor the NAEFS. So at the moment, with the ECMWF anomaly charts not appearing much of the time I can only suggest a cold plunge, other than a 24-36 hour outbreak behind an active low pressure system seems unlikely. In the main the anomaly outputs to me suggest a period of Atlantic activity with surface lows forming off/near Newfoundland and as they approach the trough diffluence then tending to deepen and swing ENE south of Iceland. It is possible that one may get closer to northern Scotland and give the brief input of cold air across the country. T+72 or perhaps the T+120 Fax might give an indication of how likely the professionals feel this might be?

Edited October 14, 2013 by johnholmes

[Polar Maritime]

maybe the american government shut down John ?

Edited October 14, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[johnholmes]

hard to do that as ECMWF represents a number of European countries, odd though, never happened before since I started using them.

[Gaz1985]

All this talk of cold in the far reaches of model fantasy land, the experts at the Met are not having any of it.H

 

Yes I'm not buying into it unless the Met come on board.

[karlos1983]

Yes I'm not buying into it unless the Met come on board.

They change their outlook often, they seem to be pretty good at sitting on the fence IMO, until it's fairly nailed on they won't stick their neck out.

[Frosty.]

until it's fairly nailed on they won't stick their neck out.

A very sensible policy it is too :-)

[Timmytour]

it seems to be to have been a re-occuring theme now for a few months that the models seem to indicate there's an open invitation for the Atlantic to come steaming in and resume normal service only for the Atlantic to end up being a lot more tentative in taking up the opportunity then we would have thought.i think there's going to be a lot of probing from the cold up north....almost like watching a cat trying to suss out whether it safe to occupy a certain piece of ground. It will come, go and come again and go again and eventually get more and more confident.  I reckon we could some blue uppers stretching down to the very south of the UK come 10th November

[Turnedoutniceagain]

It's amazing how quickly things can change, I suddenly have more belief that the first cold spell of the next five months might arrive much sooner than I dared to expect. I think we are in for a very exciting late autumn / early winter onwards. :-)

Just like the Daily Express predicted ehh Frosty !!

 

All eyes on the next model output as we're still in FI here

[karlos1983]

Well not great charts for cold fans in the foreseeable future on this mornings runs. ECM fl cold has dissapeared as well.

[Frosty.]

A very unsettled looking Ecm 00z op run this morning, lots of low pressure during the next 10 days+ with spells of heavy rain & strong winds, the worst of it across the northwest of the uk with the southeast most favoured for the best of any fine intervals in between times, it will also be turning much milder from the south from thursday with winds sourced from southern europe / azores but the far north of the BI looks like turning cold for a while later this week before wet and windy weather and milder air pushes north by the end of the weekend.

 

Tonight is the lull before the big change, a lot more in the way of fog tonight but tomorrow brings the change, heavy rain spreading in from the west/sw and pushing north and east before grinding to a halt across central scotland with a cold and wet day up there but with progressively milder air feeding in further south, thereafter, unsettled weather persists with only brief drier and brighter intervals to separate us from the next depression, however, the ecm shows a change to rather colder weather later in the run, especially across the northwest.

[MR EXTREMES]

A very unsettled looking Ecm 00z op run this morning, lots of low pressure during the next 10 days+ with spells of heavy rain & strong winds, the worst of it across the northwest of the uk with the southeast most favoured for the best of any fine intervals in between times, it will also be turning much milder from the south from thursday with winds sourced from southern europe / azores but the far north of the BI looks like turning cold for a while later this week before wet and windy weather and milder air pushes north by the end of the weekend.

 

Tonight is the lull before the big change, a lot more in the way of fog tonight but tomorrow brings the change, heavy rain spreading in from the west/sw and pushing north and east before grinding to a halt across central scotland with a cold and wet day up there but with progressively milder air feeding in further south, thereafter, unsettled weather persists with only brief drier and brighter intervals to separate us from the next depression, however, the ecm shows a change to rather colder weather later in the run, especially across the northwest.

good post frosty don't think were be seeing anything wintry for sometime yet.

looks like vortex is on the move which is a concern although to early to say for sure its looking rather wet very wet and stormy and very mild at times.

 

were seeing all the northern hemisphere heights being removed lets hope cold can hold on in scandi and east but signs are the low alantic heights are going to bully there way through.

 

so for now its wind and rain to keep us intrested.

[tinybill]

well if  fantasy  world  right  the  cold  lovers will soon  be coming out  of hibernation!!

[Summer Sun]

Well not great charts for cold fans in the foreseeable future on this mornings runs. ECM fl cold has dissapeared as well.

 

ECM still looks cool to me in FI apart from the south of England

 

Edited October 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[AWD]

well if fantasy world right the cold lovers will soon be coming out of hibernation!!

I don't think one GFS Perb is going to bring euphoria in here. lol.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, a sustained spell of mild SW winds with rain at times, little sign of anything significantly cold affecting any of the UK for the next few weeks

 

Today sees all models introducing a sustained spell of unsettled and Atlantic based weather beginning tomorrow. Low pressure settles over the Atlantic and steers a front NE across the UK tomorrow before it becomes slow moving over Northern Scotland. Behind the front warmer air moves in and then begins a period of many days of temperatures on the mild side of average with spells of rain, wind and showers with a few almost springlike sunny intervals in between the rain bands. Northernmost areas will see somewhat less mild weather but even here it will never be desperately cold though with some persistent rain at times in a cool ESE wind.

 

GFS then shows the entire remainder of the run with broad and strong SW airflows blowing across large parts of the UK, sometimes strong with gales in exposed places. All this will be in association with Low pressure crossing the Atlantic and passing NW Scotland at times.There would be spells of rain at times too with just briefer drier and brighter spells in between. The North could feel a little fresher at times as cold fronts pass through.

 

UKMO has Low pressure off NW Ireland at the start of next week with a fresh to strong SW flow across the UK with spells of rain and showers for all in temperatures on the mild side of average.

 

GEM in particular shows the potential for a stormy spell early next week as a viscious Low moves up from the SW close to central Britain. To it's North colder and wet weather would feature while to the South the strongest winds and potential severe gales would take place along with heavy rain albeit under very mild conditions here.

 

NAVGEM holds Low pressure just to the West of Ireland early next week throwing frequent troughs NE across the UK with rain at times followed by showers. It shows a generally mild picture for all.

 

ECM shows wet and windy weather early next week as a very deep Low passes close to the North of the UK. After a mild period colder weather would engage the circulation on the rear side of this Low, shown to affect the North after the middle of next week with showers turning wintry here over the hills. The South would remain rather milder with rain at times from a slow moving trough across Southern England.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to show a sustained spell of wet and windy weather across the UK over the next few weeks. Temperatures look like staying on the mild side of average throughout the entirety of the output both North and South with just a handful of cooler options in the North later on. Some drier, pleasant and still mild weather looks like occurring at times too. It also looks like becoming quite windy at times too with a dominance from a SW point.

 

The Jet Stream looks like maintaining a new position across the Atlantic towards the UK for some considerable period to come.

 

In Summary today the trend remains for the UK to be staring down the barrel of a sustained spell of mild SW winds with rain at times. The North could be a little chillier at times but there is little sign of any chance of anything significantly cold affecting any of the UK for the next few weeks. Despite the rain being a common feature for most areas some brighter periods will be likely to occur at times too when in shelter it could still feel quite warm. Winds could be strong at times almost anywhere but with the majority of the time seeing the UK bathed in a SW wind direction this will emphasise the reasons why the UK is likely to remain mild.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[Frosty.]

I don't think one GFS Perb is going to bring euphoria in here. lol.

it's not just one though is it...the ecm and gem also showed a cold blast and the gfs 06z, and today's ecm 00z shows a colder pattern emerging towards the end of the month.

[AWD]

it's not just one though is it...the ecm and gem also showed a cold blast and the gfs 06z, and today's ecm 00z shows a colder pattern emerging towards the end of the month.

I'm in agreement with Gibby's summary above, as well as John's summary last night and the current Met Office forecast. All forecasting the prevailing winds to be from a westerly or south westerly source with much of the UK under milder Atlantic air for the next couple of weeks. The far north may flirt with cooler air at times (I'd hesitate to call it cold), but that looks the exception rather than the rule.The main story for the next couple of weeks looks to be rainfall amounts rather than temperatures. Some rather inclement and troublesome rainfall totals are possible in prone locations.As we've seen before though, things can change very quickly in the world of weather forecasting so nothing is ever certain.

[shedhead]

There is almost always 'something interesting' showing in FI, especially deep FI, but I think we need to remember the same caveats should always apply at that range....whatever the situation. For the time being Gibby's summary above pretty much describes what we are actually going to see across the foreseeable, with the temperature emphasis very much on mild - for now at least.