Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Thanks Yarmy

 

BFTP

[Frosty.]

Looking through the latest GEFS 06z perturbations, on most of them we get the blowtorch hairdryer treatment and although this is from the 6z control run, it has plenty of support..it looks like a wild, mild & rainy outlook for the next few weeks at the very least, a constant conveyor belt of depressions sweeping in on a sw-ne aligned jet.

[shedhead]

Looking through the latest GEFS 06z perturbations, on most of them we get the blowtorch hairdryer treatment and although this is from the 6z control run, it has plenty of support..it looks like a wild, mild & rainy outlook for the next few weeks at the very least, a constant conveyor belt of depressions sweeping in on a sw-ne aligned jet.

Indeed, also as I suggested last week this kind pattern would steadily erode much of the snow cover that has or will build up west of the Urals....IFit ultimately transpires of course! 

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by shedhead

[Frosty.]

Indeed, also as I suggested last week this kind pattern would steadily erode much of the snow cover that has or will build up west of the Urals....IFit ultimately transpires of course! 

 

Indeed shedhead, the cold block to the northwest and north is blown to pieces and norway also warms up, as would finland soon after, We will end up starting from scratch again if the charts above verify.

[shedhead]

To be fair that T+384hr (as always) has very little chance of verifying, but even anything remotely similar would be a horror show as far as cold is concerned, not just in the UK either. Early November cocktails on the banks of the Moskova anyone...

Edited October 16, 2013 by shedhead

[Methuselah]

Indeed, also as I suggested last week this kind pattern would steadily erode much of the snow cover that has or will build up west of the Urals....IFit ultimately transpires of course! 

 

Bugger me, that's a big 'if', Shed! 

[Frosty.]

Bugger me, that's a big 'if', Shed!

Indeed it is but in a prolonged mild unsettled pattern with the jet on a sw/ne axis...I'm agreeing with shedhead about the devastating impact it would have in undoing all that early promise with a big zonal BLOWTORCH blasting through western, eastern & northern europe.

Edited October 16, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

GFS ensemble shows little end in sight for the westerly winds as a result mid and unsettled looks like lasting for a long time yet

 

Ensemble to start November

 

 

GFS Op to start November

 

 

Both are in agreement that pressure stays low over Greenland

Edited October 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

At least the angle of the jet is veering towards more of a due westerly flow with potential for amplification further upstream, straw clutch about the last bit.

[MR EXTREMES]

Was trying to post another chart which shows where we are going this week which shows heights between Iceland and Svalbard and LPs on a track 600 miles further south to illustrate we are not in 'traditional' zoneality.  My computer at work won't allow me to post an image from current runs.  Suffice to say though I much prefer the set up we are going to get than above even if it brings wet, windy and mild

 

BFTP

nothing from the models or teleconnection points to any kind of northern blocking for the foreseeable future and with the strat temps falling like a stone I think im already to throw the towel in already this winter is looking the complete opposite to recent ones and I agree that madden talks absolute rubbish.

 

but stormy is what the models are showing with snow and ice in northern Europe slowly retreating back.

 

the models are how ever showing a lot more action and mild so atleast its not boring.

solar activity ramping up and so is the weather.

 

winter 2013/14 headlines flooding and strong winds mild at time very mild.

[UV-RAY]

nothing from the models or teleconnection points to any kind of northern blocking for the foreseeable future and with the strat temps falling like a stone I think im already to throw the towel in already this winter is looking the complete opposite to recent ones and I agree that madden talks absolute rubbish.

 

but stormy is what the models are showing with snow and ice in northern Europe slowly retreating back.

 

the models are how ever showing a lot more action and mild so atleast its not boring.

solar activity ramping up and so is the weather.

 

winter 2013/14 headlines flooding and strong winds mild at time very mild.

Winters over then........ It's October 16th and yes the outlook is mild and wet, geez if we are still seeing the same charts come the end of January then I may join you in throwing in the towel but just for now it's Autumn and it's doing what it says on the tin.

[johnholmes]

winter 2013/14 headlines flooding and strong winds mild at time very mild.

 

what a silly comment to make in mid October

[Frosty.]

. winter 2013/14 headlines flooding and strong winds mild at time very mild.

And if the jet pushes further south..BLIZZARDS..SEVERE FROSTS and ICE DAYS :- ) according to the law of averages, even madden will get lucky at some point.

[Methuselah]

Winters over then........ It's October 16th and yes the outlook is mild and wet, geez if we are still seeing the same charts come the end of January then I may join you in throwing in the towel but just for now it's Autumn and it's doing what it says on the tin.

And, as we all know, the biggest pattern-changes tend to take us all by surprise?

And if the jet pushes further south..BLIZZARDS..SEVERE FROSTS and ICE DAYS :- ) according to the law of averages, even madden will get lucky at some point.

And, also 'according to the law of averages', we will all be dead by then... 

[Captain Shortwave]

And, as we all know, the biggest pattern-changes tend to take us all by surprise?

And, also 'according to the law of averages', we will all be dead by then... 

Indeed a week ago it was endless cold, the week before that was endless warmth. Now it's endless rain and wind 

[Frosty.]

And, as we all know, the biggest pattern-changes tend to take us all by surprise?

And, also 'according to the law of averages', we will all be dead by then... 

I hope not pete..I love a good freeze :-)

[Dancerwithwings]

And, as we all know, the biggest pattern-changes tend to take us all by surprise?

Surprise! Surprise!....Ooh i love a bit of cilla !!!

[Methuselah]

Surprise! Surprise!....Ooh i love a bit of cilla !!!

 

[Barry12]

Patience caterpillars, the cold will come.

[throwoff]

If spending time on NW has taught me anything is it that nothing can be trusted!

 

Last winter when all around us had snow, some people lots, others a light dusting, the models, the rain radar everything pointed to Medway getting a decent fall.

 

Time after time everything was wrong.

 

The models give us a good idea, sometimes they are spot on but I have learnt never to chalk anything us as read and certainly never to dismiss anything no matter how far into FI it is.

 

Everything builds the picture.

[Frosty.]

 

wotta lorra lorra laffs that got pete...a lot funnier than the upcoming weather

 

she has aged very well.

[Tom Jarvis]

hold your horses is the low going to undercut on the gfs 12z!!!!

[Barry12]

hold your horses is the low going to undercut on the gfs 12z!!!!

Grasshoppers, this is what I was trying to tell you.

[Frosty.]

hold your horses is the low going to undercut on the gfs 12z!!!!

or an overcut

[Summer Sun]

Where ever the low ends up it will be bringing some rather mild 850's