Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Iceni]

This man, Dave 'the Weather' King, reckons it will be so-so average... until Boxing Day when it'll be the start of the Big Freeze right through to Easter.

 

http://www.thetimes.co.uk/tto/weather/article3815693.ece

 

A re-run of 1963 in other words.

[Frosty.]

Where ever the low ends up it will be bringing some rather mild 850's

Yes Gavin, let's save the undercuts for when it would be effective...I.e WINTER :-) Edited October 16, 2013 by Frosty.

[Tom Jarvis]

mabe not this time but heights getting to greenland which is new

[Summer Sun]

Some cooler uppers push into Scotland later on in GFS's run but thats as far as they get

 

 

Looks like the PV is going to get a move on as well

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

The PV is always 'on the move,' chaps...that's what make the UK's weather so fascinating! 

[Tom Jarvis]

FI know but nothernly incoming??

[Summer Sun]

FI know but nothernly incoming??

 

For a short time yes but look what it leads to

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Snowman.]

CFS for Nov looks quite nice if you ask me.

 

 

 

However Feb took my eye

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Steve C]

FI know but nothernly incoming??

I'm not sure I'm a great fan of those Meteociel charts, as with their colouration, they can look super cold.

 

Here is an equivalent one, showing 500-1000 hpa thickness. If low altitude snow chances are likely to occur when the thickness levels are sub 528, then they are still pretty far north here.

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by Steve C

[johnholmes]

It can be quite confusing with different web sites and centres having differing map projections and temperature colouring.

[smithyweather]

It is also hard to read what the colour code is because of the way they do it, I mean I can't tell if the dark green is 534dam or 528dam

[Polar Maritime]

I'd go to specsavers .........@ 

Edited October 16, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Methuselah]

I'd go to specsavers .........@ 

And, there was I just about to make a 'humorous' remark - about specks!   

[Polar Maritime]

I did't want to let that slip Pete ! cheaky.

[Frosty.]

And, there was I just about to make a 'humorous' remark - about specks!   

My humorous remark is..I hope the Ecm 12z is speckstacular

[Captain Shortwave]

My humorous remark is..I hope the Ecm 12z is speckstacular

Unfortunately any model output is entirely speckulative and likely to be completely wrong 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Well we trundle along to a more active period and this is where I'll up the ante a bit.  I suggested that a change would be afoot for latter half and it seems we are headed that way, I think that some of the LPs that are looking like heading our way will be a little more lively than currently shown and if....IF they remain on southerly track there could be some notable weather with both rain and very strong winds being a feature.  I think the theme is too slack at present and anticipate an 'upgrade' in intensity

If I'm right ok, if I'm wrong...ok....as I'm looking through my rose tinted SPECS!  And my method is very much SPECulative. Let's see what develops....and YES GAV no cold to speak of on horizon!!!

 

BFTP

Edited October 16, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Summer Sun]

ECM out to t144 and it remains unsettled with it becoming increasingly mild

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[smithyweather]

What is stopping the cold from coming down? There looks to be alot of very cold air quite close to us (well me anyway) i.e 500 miles away. 

[Summer Sun]

What is stopping the cold from coming down? There looks to be alot of very cold air quite close to us (well me anyway) i.e 500 miles away. 

 

Low pressure to our west dragging up mild air

 

If t168 comes off the early gains of snow in parts of Scandinavia could be lost quite quickly

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Methuselah]

I think someone needs be a bit more circumspecked?

[Frosty.]

ECM out to t144 and it remains unsettled with it becoming increasingly mild

 

Wish those big blue blobs were further south..our time will come fellow coldies :-)

[Captain Shortwave]

Well the ECM wants to blowtorch Europe in specktacular fashion

Polar vortex transferring across the pole with all the heights in the wrong place pretty much

Edited October 16, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Summer Sun]

t192 from ECM shows those cooler uppers making a move to Scotland but at the same time the warmer air to our south makes another push northwards let the battle commence

 

 

A closer view

 

[Frosty.]

Well the ECM wants to blowtorch Europe in specktacular fashion

Polar vortex transferring across the pole with all the heights in the wrong place pretty much

Now that's what I call the ultimate hairdryer treatment, all that lovely snow melting away. :- (