Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Polar Maritime]

So am i AWD and im sure Frosty is, but i also agree with Frosty regarding a colder pattern at the turn of the month, which the ECM has has been showing for a few days now.

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=16&ech=192&carte=&mode=0

 

if you look from 300hr  onwards there  is  a  change yes  i  know  9/10 times  it don't happen got to look some were for  a  hint!!!

Edited October 15, 2013 by tinybill

[Bristawl Si]

 

There is almost always 'something interesting' showing in FI, especially deep FI, but I think we need to remember the same caveats should always apply at that range....whatever the situation. For the time being Gibby's summary above pretty much describes what we are actually going to see across the foreseeable, with the temperature emphasis very much on mild - for now at least.

Well Gibby's post (as placed in this thread by SS) says no cold "for a few weeks".So that's a whole month or 4 weeks to be accurate, written off for cold. I'm not sure anyone can really predict UK weather 4 weeks into the future.

[Polar Maritime]

Certainly a very interesting few days coming up to see how the models handle the two lows out in the Atlantic. Hopefully they will continue on a Southerly track !

[Frosty.]

 

Well Gibby's post (as placed in this thread by SS) says no cold "for a few weeks".

So that's a whole month or 4 weeks to be accurate, written off for cold. I'm not sure anyone can really predict UK weather 4 weeks into the future.

This is true, nobody can see around corners unless they have a mirror placed there.

[shedhead]

 Well Gibby's post (as placed in this thread by SS) says no cold "for a few weeks".So that's a whole month or 4 weeks to be accurate, written off for cold. I'm not sure anyone can really predict UK weather 4 weeks into the future.

Not entirely sure that is an accurate reflection of his summation BB....

 

The North could be a little chillier at times but there is little sign of any chance of anything significantly cold affecting any of the UK for the next few weeks.

[UV-RAY]

Not entirely sure that is an accurate reflection of his summation BB....

 

The North could be a little chillier at times but there is little sign of any chance of anything significantly cold affecting any of the UK for the next few weeks.

That's a fair assessment of what the models are showing currently, of course this could change suddenly but as it stands average to mild and wet for most sums it up.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean paints a very unsettled picture with low pressure centred just to the west of the uk being the dominant feature, it also shows much milder air sweeping across most of the uk from thursday onwards although the far north will be colder for a while later this week, however, the mild air further south will be spreading north through scotland as time goes on, during next week it doesn't look as mild as it will be later this week. Throughout all this, the extensive cold block remains intact not far north of the uk and eventually begins to push south later.

Edited October 15, 2013 by Frosty.

[chionomaniac]

I see the first signs in FI that a more traditional autumnal pattern is likely to become more dominant. I suspect that we will see the modelling come into line with a more October MJO phase 2 type pattern as we get closer to November. That will involve a reduction in heights in Greenland with a more mobile Atlantic pattern and probable height build up to our NE. How far north the jet stream settles across the Atlantic remains to be seen. Wet and mild will be the theme by the end of the month is my best guess with recurrent troughing towards the west of the country.

[Frosty.]

I see the first signs in FI that a more traditional autumnal pattern is likely to become more dominant. I suspect that we will see the modelling come into line with a more October MJO phase 2 type pattern as we get closer to November. That will involve a reduction in heights in Greenland with a more mobile Atlantic pattern and probable height build up to our NE. How far north the jet stream settles across the Atlantic remains to be seen. Wet and mild will be the theme by the end of the month is my best guess with recurrent troughing towards the west of the country.

And perhaps some occasional amplification of the upstream pattern with polar maritime incursions can't be ruled out with a broadly westerly mobile pattern, i'm not convinced we are looking at a long draw sw'ly borefest until mid november.

Edited October 15, 2013 by Frosty.

[Yarmy]

The incipient winter PV still seems reluctant to move away from Northern Russia/Barents Sea on the 06z.

 

 

In the low Res it goes wandering all over the place as usual, but you might as well throw paint at the screen for the GFS low res.

Edited October 15, 2013 by Yarmy

[Man With Beard]

I think the long-term outlook is particularly hard to guess right now - we look like being stuck in a pattern of SWlies for a week or so, but what will happen to us when it breaks? Without strong driving from the Atlantic, is it not conceivable that heights could rise from the south once more? Or if the low off Ireland gets through to the east, may a small ridge of heights build behind? However, if the jet finally heads our way then it will likely stay unsettled.

[Frosty.]

Got my blue paint ready Yarmy :-)

[Summer Sun]

Forget above colder weather for now the most concerning thing for some over the next few weeks is rainfall

 

Accumulated totals to this time next week show some stark contrasts across the UK

 

Just over 100mm in NE Scotland but in NW Scotland some spots don't even get above 30mm whilst in SE England we don't get above 20mm

 

 

Take it on another 24 hrs and parts of NE Scotland get just over 120mm of rain again the SE remains one of the driest places

 

 

If those totals come off we'll be looking at flooding again unfortunately

Edited October 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run takes aim but can't pull the trigger to enable all that huge mass of arctic air to come flooding south, there is just a moment when I thought it would but a secondary depression tracking east scuppered it but as things stand, it's an increasingly angry looking atlantic pattern with depressions becoming more and more vigorous towards the end of the month, hardly anything you could describe as settled, just brief gaps between the lows. The cold air to the north is tantalizingly close but the uk becomes very mild, the southern half of the uk could actually be described as rather warm this weekend and through the first half of next week if this run verified, even scotland becomes milder but not like further south, lots of strong winds and heavy rain interspersed by brighter and showery spells, once the atlantic fires up..it stays that way and the uk has proper wild autumn weather for the first time this autumn.

[legritter]

certainly a real autumnal looking modell output ,and as been already stated cold air tantalising us coldies to our north .certainly a set up for the developement of possibly some deep lows ,and perhaps some newsworthy weather in NW europe over the coming weeks .on pulling the curtains this morning one could have thought winter was already here , i did spend severall minutes at 4am this morning whilst having a fag outdoors thinking well if we can get this mid  October what could the winter bring .interesting times ahead gang ,i hope this coming winter to post some data etc ,our computer is on the blink and iv a new desk top waiting in its box so when iv mastered windows 8 i will give it a try .we could start seeing some interesting FAX charts ,will catch up later after modell updates 

[MR EXTREMES]

The Gfs 06z op run takes aim but can't pull the trigger to enable all that huge mass of arctic air to come flooding south, there is just a moment when I thought it would but a secondary depression tracking east scuppered it but as things stand, it's an increasingly angry looking atlantic pattern with depressions becoming more and more vigorous towards the end of the month, hardly anything you could describe as settled, just brief gaps between the lows. The cold air to the north is tantalizingly close but the uk becomes very mild, the southern half of the uk could actually be described as rather warm this weekend and through the first half of next week if this run verified, even scotland becomes milder but not like further south, lots of strong winds and heavy rain interspersed by brighter and showery spells, once the atlantic fires up..it stays that way and the uk has proper wild autumn weather for the first time this autumn.

well sod it lets enjoy the stormy weather for now and see where the end of the month leaves us.

intresting model watching though the last week or so but now a little worried about the removal of all that cold air to the ne with systems looking like a full on attack but atleast we can safely say summer is over and autumn is back with a angry look.

 

but agree its going to be pretty mild and the north was very very close to getting there first taste of winter but its not boring now.

plenty of time yet more so when you look at march this year.

Edited October 15, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Frosty.]

well sod it lets enjoy the stormy weather for now and see where the end of the month leaves us.

intresting model watching though the last week or so but now a little worried about the removal of all that cold air to the ne with systems looking like a full on attack but atleast we can safely say summer is over and autumn is back with a angry look.

 

but agree its going to be pretty mild and the north was very very close to getting there first taste of winter but its not boring now.

plenty of time yet more so when you look at march this year.

Yep it looks like we are finally going to get our fix of stormy weather as the atlantic cranks up to maximum during the last week & a ½ or so of october. Goodybye benign sluggish weather, hello proper autumn.

Edited October 15, 2013 by Frosty.

[forecaster]

The EC monthly forecast model kills the +ve heights to our north from the start of next week and doesn't bring them back for the remainder of the period. Actually shows a strongish signal for +ve heights to our south and -ve heights near or over us. So if that's right you would expect mainly mild and wet and sometimes windy for the next month. 

[phil nw.]

Yes the Atlantic wake up was inevitable given the time of year.Once we head into the second half of Autumn the cooling Polar Vortex usually becomes more influencial as it continues to deepen and expands so it was only a matter of time that we hit a mobile westerly pattern.

 

The mean outputs model this pattern to continue into the second week

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013101500/ECH1-240.GIF?15-12

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gens/run/gensnh-21-1-240.png?6

 

so changeable with bands of rain and showers crossing the country from time to time but with some bright intervals between.

Temperatures look close to average for much of the time so in the often breezy and cloudy setup i would think night frosts would be at a minimum.

[Gaz1985]

 

It is looking wet but at least it won't be cold, far from it, temperatures above average throughout  

[Captain Shortwave]

Someone on here needs to design a mug which says

"Keep calm, winter's coming"

Time to endure Autumn in full bloom by the looks of it

[Summer Sun]

Someone on here needs to design a mug which says

"Keep calm, winter's coming"

Time to endure Autumn in full bloom by the looks of it

 

Not a mug but

 

 

[Tom Jarvis]

well the gfs 12z is coming out and it looks like the PV is on it way

to Greenland 

Edited October 15, 2013 by Tom Jarvis

[AWD]

well the gfs 12z is coming out and it looks like the PV is on it way

to Greenland

It's going to go there sooner or later. It won't stay away for the next 6 months otherwise Greenland would be issuing drought orders come Spring.

It's all about shifting it after it does enter Greenland territory for a period of time before Spring gets here.