Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[UV-RAY]

Vortex off on it's travels, map of the core low heights at 30hpahttps://mapsengine.google.com/map/edit?mid=zxmSRTLk6qjA.kxuYmNkEhXn0

Lol, it reminds me of NASA'S where's Santa on Xmas eve website.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a gradual transition to much milder weather as we begin to draw air up from the azores / southern europe on ssw'ly winds, however, the far north of the uk becomes colder for a while later this week, an offshoot of the very cold plunge through norway, but even those northern areas turn milder through next weekend but not as mild as the south/se of the uk where temperatures could reach the mid 60's F, perhaps high 60's F for the southeast corner as they flirt with warmer continental air for a time. This is only half the story though because it also looks like the unsettled spell will continue, albeit a warmer version although tomorrow is the exception to that rule with a fine day across the uk with sunny spells after the clearance of some stubborn thick fog patches, the south/se could also have a fine day or two later in the week as pressure becomes higher to the southeast as a ridge builds but the north and west of the uk look like becoming generally very unsettled and staying that way for the foreseeable future. By next weekend the mean shows a shallow trough centred just to the west but it's influence is significant with a cyclonic mix of sunshine and showers and longer spells of rain but pleasantly mild, the further outlook is also looking mild but generally unsettled through to the end of the month at least, probably into early november too.

Edited October 14, 2013 by Frosty.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Looks like the models wanting October to go out like a lion. that 06z run is non stop action.  I think we're in for a troublesome latter October folks.  Forget how mild or how cold it will be, the other troubles of high winds and heavy and excessive rainfall could be the watch words with that jetstream looking like ensuring its not just the usual the further N and W you are. 

 

 

BFTP

Edited October 14, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

That falls in with ECM I think, going to get the ECM 240.  Correction, here is ECM T192

 

 

 

generally the same theme I'd say

 

BFTP

Edited October 14, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Polar Maritime]

The 6z is not a stone throw from this mornings ECM at 240hrs.

 

Edited October 14, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[nick sussex]

More backing from the GFS 06hrs run for the ECM 00hrs operational, note where the PV is held. The overall NH profile is similar between the ECM and the GFS 06hrs run now.

If you look at the ECM postage stamps theres a lot of uncertainty there with the trough position:

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2013101400!!/

Generally we often see this when you have some blocking to the north and low pressure near the UK as we often see a bias in the later timeframes, how much energy gets ejected off the main trough is often a point of contention.

For newbies for this reason its better to stick to the operational runs upto 144hrs, the higher resolution here generally gives a better idea of the battle between low and high to the north, the lower resolution of the ensembles often overplays both the northwards placing of the jet and the depth of the low in this type of set up.

We'll see this evening if the ECM is on the right trend as given the timeframes involved we would expect to see the models move towards a general consensus.

[Frosty.]

A very mild and unsettled looking GFS 06z as the atlantic really cranks up with spells of wet & windy weather interspersed by sunshine and showers, temperatures on the warm side of average until near the end of the run, the best of the warmer, sunnier spells tending to be the further southeast you are, the northwest of the uk being the wettest and windiest overall but mild or very mild.

[Backtrack]

Looks like the models wanting October to go out like a lion. that 06z run is non stop action.  I think we're in for a troublesome latter October folks.  Forget how mild or how cold it will be, the other troubles of high winds and heavy and excessive rainfall could be the watch words with that jetstream looking like ensuring its not just the usual the further N and W you are. 

 

 

BFTP

 

Now where's that Walker's 'Will it Rain?' promotion when I want some easy cash?!

[Frosty.]

A nice little tease at the end of the 6z op run, a more wintry pattern evolving.  

[shedhead]

Clearly ECM is keener to build heights to our north, but I think the general consensus is we're now on the cusp of a protracted wet, perhaps very wet spell, with temperatures not unsurprisingly in the mild/very mild category for most.  Just how protracted the spell is likely to be remains open to question, but it's hard to see a return to anything drier and colder this side of months end imo, so if nothing else lets hope the new pattern at least results in some interesting weather at times. 

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06Z mean shows a very unsettled outlook, becoming mild/v.mild across the southern half of the uk beyond midweek and turning cold across the far north for a time later this week and throughout this run, cold air is never far to the north of the uk, there are hints throughout the mean where it looks like the cold air could be drawn further south, as it is, the PFJ does push south at times, sometimes the whole of the uk is north of it and this indicates that although most of the uk will become mild for a while, especially the further south you are, temperatures then begin to slide towards average or even a little below, the further north you are. It's an interesting run and shows potential for a cold spell towards the end of the month, which the 6z op run was even more bullish about.

[tinybill]

The GEFS 06Z mean shows a very unsettled outlook, becoming mild/v.mild across the southern half of the uk beyond midweek and turning cold across the far north for a time later this week and throughout this run, cold air is never far to the north of the uk, there are hints throughout the mean where it looks like the cold air could be drawn further south, as it is, the PFJ does push south at times, sometimes the whole of the uk is north of it and this indicates that although most of the uk will become mild for a while, especially the further south you are, temperatures then begin to slide towards average or even a little below, the further north you are. It's an interesting run and shows potential for a cold spell towards the end of the month, which the 6z op run was even more bullish about.

  as  you say  if fantasy world  comes  off  things could  start  getting interesting

[johnholmes]

I really cannot see anything that any of the 500mb anomaly charts are showing over the past 5 days or so to suggest anything like any cold spell or even anything more than a very short snap if that.

All show the anomaly in heights to be –ve and somewhere west of the UK. Any +ve height anomalies are small although in the area that coldies’ like, ie Greenland and Iceland. However until such time as they are coupled with actual ridging in the contour heights being also predicted I think any hopes in that quarter are not going to be realised. At least in the 6-15 possibly longer using the anomaly charts.

Sorry to pour warm water on cold hopes but this is me being realistic and objective. Of course I may end up with egg on my face and will be back to apologise within that time frame if I am proved wrong-won’t be the first time or the last.

One last thing, it is far from clear but the pattern does seem to be setting up for what may be a fairly active spell with the Atlantic with the probability at this time of the year as the temperature gradient north to south increases, of a very active system at some point. No sign yet of any ex tropical storms getting into the north Atlantic to create even more model havoc.

 

links to various anomaly charts, note that ECMWF is missing again this morning and has been at times both at 00 and 12z over the past week; anyone any idea why?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?mode=0&code=0&ech=192&map=&runpara=

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

[Bobby]

I really cannot see anything that any of the 500mb anomaly charts are showing over the past 5 days or so to suggest anything like any cold spell or even anything more than a very short snap if that.

All show the anomaly in heights to be –ve and somewhere west of the UK. Any +ve height anomalies are small although in the area that coldies’ like, ie Greenland and Iceland. However until such time as they are coupled with actual ridging in the contour heights being also predicted I think any hopes in that quarter are not going to be realised. At least in the 6-15 possibly longer using the anomaly charts.

Sorry to pour warm water on cold hopes but this is me being realistic and objective. Of course I may end up with egg on my face and will be back to apologise within that time frame if I am proved wrong-won’t be the first time or the last.

One last thing, it is far from clear but the pattern does seem to be setting up for what may be a fairly active spell with the Atlantic with the probability at this time of the year as the temperature gradient north to south increases, of a very active system at some point. No sign yet of any ex tropical storms getting into the north Atlantic to create even more model havoc.

 

links to various anomaly charts, note that ECMWF is missing again this morning and has been at times both at 00 and 12z over the past week; anyone any idea why?

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/naefs_cartes.php?mode=0&code=0&ech=192&map=&runpara=

 

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/814day/500mb.php

Can also see no plausible signs of cold in the forseeable future in the models, looks like typical late October weather really, fairly mild if anything.

 

Perhaps those anomaly charts are missing because of the US government shutdown? Don't know where they are based, seems to be affecting a lot of things lately. Here is the ECM ensemble anomaly chart from Meteociel at day 10 at least, low pressure anomalies to our W and SW.

 

 

850 anomalies suggesting slightly above average temperatures

 

Edited October 14, 2013 by Bobby

[Turnedoutniceagain]

A nice little tease at the end of the 6z op run, a more wintry pattern evolving.  

Where did that one pop up from? I've been lurking for a while, but didn't see that coming

[Frosty.]

Where did that one pop up from? I've been lurking for a while, but didn't see that coming

Wherever it came from I hope we see it pop up again, I think there are some hints here and there on today's output that colder weather could arrive by the end of october, I would never think there was no chance because the models are sometimes found wanting, as that surprise Northerly proved last week when there was previously emphatic support for a prolonged indian summer pattern which imploded. Once we get into a more typically mobile pattern, there will be more chances of cold incursions if the jet pushes further south.

[UV-RAY]

Wherever it came from I hope we see it pop up again, I think there are some hints here and there on today's output that colder weather could arrive by the end of october, I would never think there was no chance because the models are sometimes found wanting, as that surprise Northerly proved last week when there was previously emphatic support for a prolonged indian summer pattern which imploded. Once we get into a more typically mobile pattern, there will be more chances of cold incursions if the jet pushes further south.

I think the JMA model has been hinting at such towards the months end/early November, a long way off at this moment in time and a lot of water under the bridge first, literally in fact.

[Frosty.]

I think the JMA model has been hinting at such towards the months end/early November, a long way off at this moment in time and a lot of water under the bridge first, literally in fact.

Yep, at least time is marching on and the wintry patterns are getting closer by the day. :-)

[MR EXTREMES]

^{well the gfs has vortex on the move to a not so good home.}

^{gem has lost it completely now its down to the ecm im wondering now whether all this is to much to soon still incredible cold to the north and northeast this really is a early start for the model roller coaster ride.}

^{its going to be intresting time very unsettled weather on the way.}

 

^{but take note of what john h said earlier lets hope this all moves towards a good climax by winter.}

[Snowman.]

The 6z is not a stone throw from this mornings ECM at 240hrs.

 

That looks like a chart from Jan had to check.

[Allseasons-Si]

Mmmm!

 

not many people comenting on the gfs,not suprised really

 

i know it's FL,but the GEM is looking tasty from a cold point of view.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=1&mode=0&archive=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=1&mode=1&archive=0

Edited October 14, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Skullzrulerz]

Mmmm!

 

not many people comenting on the gfs,not suprised really

 

i know it's FL,but the GEM is looking tasty from a cold point of view.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=1&mode=0&archive=0

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/geme_cartes.php?ech=6&code=0&carte=1&mode=1&archive=0

Just looked on one of them cold blast on 22nd oct.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows the uk is in the firing line for a prolonged spell of unsettled and sometimes windy weather beyond tuesday and across the southern half of england and wales it will be turning much milder / rather warm from thursday with temps boosted into the 60's F, especially in any decent sunny spells with winds becoming s'ly to sw'ly drawing air up from southern europe / azores.. indeed the southeast could reach temps of 20 celsius later in the week/weekend and even through next week it continues very mild across the south, mild across central areas with only the northern half of scotland having a hard time to get temps much above 10c at any stage. There will be spells of very wet and windy weather, especially across the north & west, the southeast is favoured for relatively better conditions at times with some warm sunshine but the mean eventually shows temps sliding closer to average by the end of the month with winds trending rather more to a westerly point with less mild air from the atlantic replacing the tropical maritime flow.

[Summer Sun]

ECM out to t216 now mild and wet seems to be where we are heading to once we lose the cooler uppers during the week

 

Edited October 14, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Snowman.]

 

 

Well then..