Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Mark Neal.]

Tonight could be cold enough for a touch of frost to go with all the fog for central and eastern areas so tomorrow will start crisp but end wet.

 

Not quite frosty, frosty! Though a chilly one here, clear skies for parts of eastern england at the minute but the right recipe for fog to form during the early hours. Models show rain arriving by mid morning for central areas and eastern england late morning and around midday. So a contrast a cool/chilly start with a milder end to the day with temperatures responding as we pick up milder SW winds. 

[Frosty.]

I said a touch of frost, not frosty but cold and foggy then all change as tropical maritime air and heavy rain sweeps north and east. Here's hoping for a much colder second half of nov. :- )

[BlueHedgehog074]

I would have to go along with some of the other posts I've read that there is nothing particularly cold showing on many of the models at the moment with Low Pressure systems looking as though they will hang about to our West or North-West with some fairly stubborn areas of High Pressure to our South-East/East. Even when looking through...

> a magnifying glass

> a pair of binoculars

> a telescope

> a super telescope

... There's just no very chilly weather to be seen on the models (although I suppose, to be fair, the chance of very chilly weather occurring increases significantly during the main Winter months). With the possibility of High Pressure over Greenland becoming weaker (something that a number of models show, although the UKMO upto 144 hours does keep it fairly strong), combined with the fairly stubborn heights to our East, winds coming in from a mild Southerly or South-Westerly direction could become the common theme for the next week or so. The possible best chance of cool/very cool conditions occurring would probably likely be from Polar Maritime interludes as Low Pressure systems out West attempt to crash through further East with a chance of the mild Southerly or South-Westerly winds backing to more of a cooler Westerly or North-Westerly direction. Also, Northern Scotland looks like it could remain on the cool side for the next few days as these areas stay more on the North-Easterm side of Low Pressure systems.

Despite the fact that the heart of the Low Pressure systems will mostly hang about to our West (with a chance of them trying to creep further East eventually), they do look influential enough to bring a number of spells of rain, showers and windy weather to numerous parts of the UK for the next few days or so. Perhaps during brighter interludes between weather fronts, and also areas that dodge most of the showers, it could become warm enough to have a picnic outside (though with all the wet weather that could occur, it would probably be too wet to gobble your sandwiches, crisps, chocolate muffins etc on the the grass). ;-)

Although it does look like the pattern above is something we could get locked into for a good while with the main models (including the 12Z ECMWF ensemble mean) generally agreeing to a constant flow from around the South/South-West and possibly West, the models could still unleash a few surprises - maybe if we do develop a proper Scandinavian High (which could be possible with High Pressure to our East) without the Polar Vortex becoming too dominant to our North-West, we could see some ridging from a Scandinavian High extending Westwards with the UK seeing cool or cold Easterly or North-Easterly winds returning. Personally, though, since there is no guarantee whether a proper Scandinvian High will develop within the next ten days or so, I do feel the chances of us experiencing a generally mild pattern for a while with Lows to our West or North-West with High Pressure to our East/South-East is the likely route we'll head in. The general agreement in regards to this, plus the fact that High Pressure to our East can be quite difficult to budge, are the reasons for thinking this. It could be true that if the Jetstream can go far enough South, it could quite possibly, at least, steer some Low Pressure systems right over us and help knock heights to our South-East or East further away (but maybe still with the far North of the UK staying on the Northern or North-Eastern edge of the Low Pressure systems and remaining cool as a result). Otherwise, getting brief periods of cool/cold weather via Polar Maritime airflows, as mentioned earlier on, I think is only really the other way, for the moment, to see something less-mild (as longs as Lows do crash through far enough East).

The way things stand, the charts are remaining 'snowproof'. But if you're a fan of mild or warm weather, and would like to see some unsettled weather, you'll be pleased with what the charts are currently showing. Because of the general positioning of the Low Pressure systems, the South-East is likely to see the least in the way of unsettled weather, and the area that's likely to be the mildest.

[Iceni]

Tonight could be cold enough for a touch of frost to go with all the fog for central and eastern areas so tomorrow will start crisp but end wet.

 

Yes I think we missed the first frost of this autumn by the skin of our teeth this morning. Very chilly look to the dawn although a rather spectacularly red sky through the mist.

 

It's the classic 'Red sky in the morning, shepherd's warning' thing isn't it?

Edited October 16, 2013 by Iceni

[Frosty.]

The GEM 00z shows a very unsettled and at times, windy outlook for all of us and turning much milder across the uk, eventually scotland becomes much milder too with temps into the low teens celsius but across southern, central, eastern & southeast england it becomes rather warm at times with temps into the low to mid 60's F with air sourced from southern europe and the best of the dry and sunny spells towards the southeast. So, after a cold and in places foggy start this morning, it's all change with rain spreading north and east, heavy at times and milder air spreading from the southwest later.

Edited October 16, 2013 by Frosty.

[karlos1983]

GFS is not a million miles away from where we need it to be

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?&ech=168&mode=0

No support though

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php?ech=168&mode=1&map=0&archive=0

Edited October 16, 2013 by karlos1983

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models show a front moving NE across the UK today. It will carry rain NE too, heavy in places but not everywhere. The rain band will become slow moving over the far North tonight and tomorrow while all other areas see clearer and milder weather move in behind the rain later this morning in the SW and elsewhere this afternoon and tonight. A few showers will follow but mostly scattered and confined to the West. Tomorrow sees this showery mix prevail when it will feel quite warm in the sunshine. After that further troughs and Low pressure areas in the Eastern Atlantic dominate our weather maintaining mild and windy weather with rain at times, some heavy through Friday and the weekend with just brief brighter intervals. It may still feel chilly at times in the North though.

 

GFS then shows all of next week largely the same with showers or longer periods of rain for all in mostly mild SW winds as deep Low pressure crosses the NW. Towards the end of the week a brief colder interlude may develop as a weak ridge crosses East behind one such depression before the pattern resets for the end of the run with strong winds and heavy rain sweeping East.

 

UKMO closes it's run with the UK bathed in a warm and moist SSW flow with Low pressure positioned out in the Eastern Atlantic SW of Ireland. All areas would see rather mild weather with a lot of cloudy skies with spells of rain or showers a frequent event for many. The East would see the best of the drier and brighter spells.

 

GEM today shows a vigorous Low pressure moving North up the Western Coasts of the UK through next week with gale force Southerly and then SW winds with bands of heavy rain sweeping through followed by showers. In the wake of this Low further secondary features sweeping NE keep the pot boiling with further wet and windy weather in maintained mild conditions throughout in the South though the trend towards colder conditions over the North is shown late in the run.

 

NAVGEM also shows Low pressure just to the West of the UK with fronts crossing North and East over all areas at times delivering bands of rain and showers throughout. On it's run temperatures stay close to or above average throughout for all.

 

ECM shows unsettled weather too next week with a brief ridge early in the week offering the South and East something drier and brighter for a brief while. However, by midweek all areas become subject to strong winds and rain as Low pressure regains total control parked to the West and NW of Britain with mild conditions still maintained for most.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a sustained mild spell with plenty of rain at times for all areas in predominantly South or SW winds. The cooler interlude offered by the operational run for the North was not supported to any great degree with most members opting for just a plain and traditional often windy, mild and wet October period.

 

The Jet Stream shows the new Southern arm of the Jet Stream is now the dominant player for the foreseeable future swallowing up the weakened Northern arm and maintaining a position close to Southern Britain from now on.

 

In Summary the models have pretty much settled now on a prolonged and unsettled period of traditional wet and windy October weather. It won't be raining all the time and all ares will see some drier and quite warm weather in between the bands of showers. Night times could see temperatures unusually mild at times in the long fetch South or SW drift. Conversely and on the negative side some of the rainfall could be heavy and driven on by an often strong South or SW wind.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[Troubleatmill]

The first snows of Finland have arrived!! way too early for us obvioulsy but fingeres crossed a cold Autumn up there will give us something to tap into later down the line.

 

http://alk.tiehallinto.fi/alk/english/kelikamerat/kamera-C1451601.html

[johnholmes]

the ECMWF-GFS charts below give the general idea of what the upper air pattern is very likely to be in the 6-10 day time scale and probably out to 15 days or so. All 3 of the main anomaly charts show a very similar pattern and have done so for about 3 days, (albeit with gaps from the output from ECMWF.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

[Skullzrulerz]

James Madden has posted this in his lastest update 'recent GFS ensemble forecasts are starting to indicate a much colder theme for the latter part of October and into November'.True?

Edited October 16, 2013 by Skulltheruler

[Frosty.]

Fellow coldies..we have to take this on the chin and bide our time but chin up, our time will come.. it is sickening to see that vast deep cold pool to the north of the uk which is just out of reach but that's life, it's better to have this now than in winter when similar charts would have me pulling my hair out. The Ecm 00z shows a very mild outlook, with occasional pulses of much warmer air pumping north from way down in southern europe, at least it looks very unsettled for most of the time although tomorrow there is a lull before the next system moves in from the southwest, then throughout next week it continues mild and unsettled with strong s'ly to sw'ly winds at times, it looks to me like a locked in unsettled pattern which could last well into november.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

Fellow coldies..we have to take this on the chin and bide our time but chin up, our time will come.. it is sickening to see that vast deep cold pool to the north of the uk which is just out of reach but that's life, it's better to have this now than in winter when similar charts would have me pulling my hair out. The Ecm 00z shows a very mild outlook, with occasional pulses of much warmer air pumping north from way down in southern europe, at least it looks very unsettled for most of the time although tomorrow there is a lull before the next system moves in from the southwest, then throughout next week it continues mild and unsettled with strong s'ly to sw'ly winds at times, it looks to me like a locked in unsettled pattern which could last well into november.

Frosty mate would this set up keep the sst's up still learning Edited October 16, 2013 by Skeggy weather

[draztik]

James Madden has posted this in his lastest update 'recent GFS ensemble forecasts are starting to indicate a much colder theme for the latter part of October and into November'.True?

http://www.null/two/ensembles/you can find the ensembles here, so take a look and decide.

[Frosty.]

Frosty mate would this set up keep the sst's up still learning

hi skeggy, yes I think it will but i'm no expert on sea surface temperature changes.

[Skullzrulerz]

No idea.

[Polar Maritime]

The name "James Madden" should be banned from NetWeather. Nothing at all is showing cold in the charts this morning. Dont wast your time listening to him Skull.

Could it be possible to add his name to the swear filter...?

Edited October 16, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a mild, at times very mild and unsettled outlook with low pressure domination, so at least it won't be benign and dull, we will all see spells of rain, sometimes heavy and with occasionally strong to gale force ssw'ly winds which eventually tend to veer more towards a westerly point during the last days of the month, so perhaps a hint that temperatures will slide closer to average by the end of the month with more of an atlantic flow rather than tropical maritime.

[UV-RAY]

The name "James Madden" should be banned from NetWeather. Nothing at all is showing cold in the charts this morning. Dont wast your time listening to him Skull.

Indeed,but the JMA model last week was hinting at a mild unsettle spell lasting until the end of this month before a cold plunge takes over for 7-10 days. Least we forget that what shows in the long range output one day can be invalid the next. Edited October 16, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[Frosty.]

The name "James Madden" should be banned from NetWeather. Nothing at all is showing cold in the charts this morning. Dont wast your time listening to him Skull.

here here

Edited October 16, 2013 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The name "James Madden" should be banned from NetWeather. Nothing at all is showing cold in the charts this morning.  

Aye, it looks good for iceland, greenland and norway but good old blighty looks positively mild and wet.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

<p>Who is expecting cold? </p>

<p> </p>

<p><img alt="Rrea00119981022.gif" src="http://www.wetterzentrale.de/archive/ra/1998/Rrea00119981022.gif" title="GFS Archive Image" /></p>

<p> </p>

<p>I also see words of 'traditional' October/Autumn weather.  Whilst windy, wet, mild is indeed common what we mustn't do is ignore the diffeence in jet pattern.  Above is your 'traditional' zoneality.</p>

<p> </p>

<p>What we are getting/going to get is this</p>

<p> </p>

<p><img alt="Netweather GFS Image" border="0" id="image1" src="http://cdn.nwstatic.co.uk/ecmimages/20131016/00/ecmslp.096.png" /></p>

<p> </p>

<p>LP centre is 600 miles further south and look at the region between Iceland and Svalbard, in the first scenario the LP will continue NE, second it will either stick or move across the UK.  Yes they both bring mild and wet and windy but the 1st is your traditional GIN corridor zoneality, the second displays a southerly tracking jet and not traditional [although over last 5 years its becoming the norm.]</p>

<p> </p>

<p>BFTP</p>

Edited October 16, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Was trying to post another chart which shows where we are going this week which shows heights between Iceland and Svalbard and LPs on a track 600 miles further south to illustrate we are not in 'traditional' zoneality.  My computer at work won't allow me to post an image from current runs.  Suffice to say though I much prefer the set up we are going to get than above even if it brings wet, windy and mild

 

BFTP

[Yarmy]

Formatted BFTP's post cos it's interesting.

 

Who is expecting cold?

 

 

I also see words of 'traditional' October/Autumn weather. Whilst windy, wet, mild is indeed common what we mustn't do is ignore the difference in jet pattern. Above is your 'traditional' zoneality.

What we are getting/going to get is this:

 

LP centre is 600 miles further south and look at the region between Iceland and Svalbard, in the first scenario the LP will continue NE, second it will either stick or move across the UK. Yes they both bring mild and wet and windy but the 1st is your traditional GIN corridor zoneality, the second displays a southerly tracking jet and not traditional [although over last 5 years its becoming the norm.]

BFTP

[johnholmes]

My view for what it is worth.

I rather doubt that other than a one off the depressions are going to be tracking over northern Scotland rather more the Torshavn area and at times a shade north of there as they track away into the Norwegian sea?

My views remain as they have been in my comments using the 500mb anomaly charts over the past 2-3 days. No major cold outbreak, and any cold burst of short duration behind one of the lows before the next one brings more wind and rain. A fairly wet and at times for northern and western areas quite windy. Even the far SE will not escape some rain and strongish winds at times. Overall the next two weeks probably showing temperatures above rather than below normal for most areas. The very far north may be about or a touch below?

[Frosty.]

Although I am no fan of mild weather as the countdown to winter continues (T- 6 weeks and counting  ..the Gfs 06z op run indicates some impressive warmth for the time of year across southern parts of the uk with temps close to 20c 68f only 10 days from november which would be some achievement I have to say, it also looks very unsettled, windy at times with gales but the further southeast you are, the better it would be in the gaps between depressions...and..unlike yesterday, the 6z today takes aim and manages to pull the trigger...coldies..we are not ignored entirely on this run, the 6z does indicate a colder plunge later in the run and a scandi high, everything on this run apart from the kitchen sink.

Edited October 16, 2013 by Frosty.