Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Summer Sun]

With the PV on the move this afternoon Scandinavia becomes milder whilst the UK remains under low pressure so mild and wet at times for us with no cold in sight

 

 

 

Quite a good call from the met office IMO who for the past week or so have stood firm about it remaining mild as we see out October and enter November

Edited October 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[MR EXTREMES]

yep indeed one thing I have noticed though is the low pressure don't really make to much progress although for awhile the flow is deep sw flow from the azores and uncle barty wants to party.

 

so its going to be testing times with also the added development of the vortex going to Greenland funny that solar activity ramps up and so does the weather.

 

stormy mild wet for most with the se escaping the worst.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

All this mild weather when it comes will not last. Come on, it is mid October! Such conditions are to be expected at this time of the year, a raging atlantic, mild Southwesterlies etc etc. 

A cold Easterly now, or a raging Northerly will be in my opinion a total waste. We need to be patient and wait until the very least December. Even when Christmas comes, we still have the two coldest months of the year to go!! 

At least on the plus side it will be feeling very warm for the time of year with 18/19c likely in Southern spots.

[Ian Brown]

All this mild weather when it comes will not last. Come on, it is mid October! Such conditions are to be expected at this time of the year, a raging atlantic, mild Southwesterlies etc etc. 

A cold Easterly now, or a raging Northerly will be in my opinion a total waste. We need to be patient and wait until the very least December. Even when Christmas comes, we still have the two coldest months of the year to go!! 

At least on the plus side it will be feeling very warm for the time of year with 18/19c likely in Southern spots.

 

Yes, we might as well have the zonality now, certainly all the ingredients are in place for a prolonged spell.

[Chess01]

People saying a 2011 winter could be in store are forgetting that most of the autumn and winter we were stuck with an Azores high . We have no such thing this autumn and it's to be expected that we could get Atlantic back in because it's autumn . Both winters of 2009 and 2010 started with a wet and windy weather as I can remember going Jamaica in 2009 when the Cumbria floods hit and I came back on the 5th of December and it was still mild however the cold set in on 23rd December. Nobody knows what will happen in a months time it's best we just observe the current pattern . When we have had cold snaps in late autumn like last year we ended up with a mild December with 13c recorded on Christmas day

[ANYWEATHER]

People saying a 2011 winter could be in store are forgetting that most of the autumn and winter we were stuck with an Azores high . We have no such thing this autumn and it's to be expected that we could get Atlantic back in because it's autumn . Both winters of 2009 and 2010 started with a wet and windy weather as I can remember going Jamaica in 2009 when the Cumbria floods hit and I came back on the 5th of December and it was still mild however the cold set in on 23rd December. Nobody knows what will happen in a months time it's best we just observe the current pattern . When we have had cold snaps in late autumn like last year we ended up with a mild December with 13c recorded on Christmas day

Tbh ,the pattern coming up is quite normal for the time of year, what as been noticeable is the lack of stormy weather in recent Autumns, anyway lets blow away the cobwebs for the next week or two and see what happens next! At least it will be mild enough to enjoy the outdoors between the storms... I think we need to have some patience as regards cold weather, the switch to mild and cold I think will happen very swiftly in the near future and computer models will not pick upon this to the very last minute!  

[Summer Sun]

Mild and wet from ECM again of course it won't be raining all the time so in any clear spells it should feel quite pleasant given the winds will be from a warmer direction than of late

 

 

By t168 we see the colder uppers get pushed further away from the UK

 

Edited October 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Skullzrulerz]

Mild and wet from ECM again of course it won't be raining all the time so in any clear spells it should feel quite pleasant given the winds will be from a warmer direction than of late

 

 

By t168 we see the colder uppers get pushed further away from the UK

 

No cold for now.

[Summer Sun]

t216 maintains the milder unsettled theme with hints also of Scandinavia turning milder

 

 

t240 ends with a big area of high pressure build over Europe, is that uncle barty building or not?

 

The UK remains unsettled and the warmer uppers start to ease off

 

Edited October 15, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Bristawl Si]

I genuinely cannot understand some of the downbeat posts on here in the last few days; it's ONLY mid-Oct.

It looks like we're entering a period of NORMAL autumn weather for the UK.

The last few years, with our early tastes of winter, were almost exceptional for the UK, as a whole.

In my lifetime i can only recall a handful of Late Octobers/Novembers where we've experienced any decent cold spells before December - certainly for anywhere south of the N Midlands.

[Frosty.]

I'm looking forward to this prolonged unsettled and at times stormy spell, been waiting for the atlantic to get angry..I think it's going to make up for lost time..BRING IT ON. :- )

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, mild and wet with temperatures by night especially well above average

 

All models show the same pattern as previous runs tonight so a short report from me tonight. Through the remainder of the week mild SSW winds will spread NE tomorrow behind a band of rain which then becomes slow moving over the North keeping things rather chillier here. Following the rain in the South it will become rather warm but breezy with occasional showers and further spells of rain later in the week, though still with some drier spells at times too.

 

GFS shows the rest of it's run with sometimes wet and very windy weather across all areas at times as increasingly deep Autumnal Low's rattle East or NE across the North Atlantic past NW Scotland. gales or severe gales are possible at times with temperatures holding well up to normal if not above.

 

UKMO shows a more modest but very mild South or SW flow with rain at times for all areas with temperatures on the warm side of average for most.

 

GEM also carries a lot of unsettled weather through next week with winds up to gale force and periods of rain moving NE on regular occasions through the week.

 

NAVGEM also shows unsettled weather with SW winds carrying through the beginning half of next week with relatively mild conditions for most.

 

ECM shows all the hallmarks of a prolonged mild spell with a conveyor belt of Low pressure tracking NE towards the NW of the UK throughout next week with trough after trough carrying bands of rain followed by showers in often very windy but mild conditions for all.

 

The GFS Ensembles show almost universal support for a mild and unsettled period of weather nationwide. Temperatures will almost be always on the mild side especially overnight with plenty of wind blowing at times.

 

The Jet Stream shows the flow currently being set up across the Atlantic and across the UK showing some signal to buckle North over Europe in response to some build of pressure to the SE of Britain in Week 2.

 

In Summary a mild period is more or less set in stone tonight with a sustained period of SW winds, mild weather with rain at times. Prolonged dry weather will be very hard to find over the coming few weeks with the incidence of frost or fog almost non existent with temperatures by night especially well above average.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[karlos1983]

I'm looking forward to this prolonged unsettled and at times stormy spell, been waiting for the atlantic to get angry..I think it's going to make up for lost time..BRING IT ON. :- )

Agreed Frosty, if it can't be cold I want it wild, big seas and torrential downpours.

[Summer Sun]

You can see the 06z accumulated rain totals to next Wednesday on the previous page (60) but the 12z run has the highest totals in the west now with SE England seeing very little rain still

 

 

Wednesday 23rd

 

[damianslaw]

An unsettled outlook, as others have said, par for the course at this time of year. Indeed the last week of October is on average a very wet unsettled period. However, in recent years we have seen alot of tame weather during same period. The atlantic has been very sluggish for a good few months now, if it is going to gets its act together now is when you would expect it too.

 

This is the time of year when the atlantic traditionally stirs into 'early winter mode' as we see temperature gradients increase rapidly over the North Atlantic - the cold pooling to our north and a warmer than average atlantic is creating a very marked temperature gradient to our north at present and perhaps it isn't a surprise neither to see the forecasted shift in the polar vortex to its traditional early winter home i.e. Greenland with cyclogensis taking place to our NW.

 

All the models show a spell of mild southwesterly winds, with bands of heavy rain and strong winds from off the atlantic for the foreseeable future, classic late October weather. On a personal note I'd like to have seen a couple of frosts by now, but it looks like we are going to have to wait awhile yet for these.

[Richie V]

Listen up coldies.... It's our turn now. Here barty barty! Lol

4 years plus since a substantial gale, tonights gfs has essence of jan 93 about it. Oh the memories.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Listen up coldies.... It's our turn now. Here barty barty! Lol4 years plus since a substantial gale, tonights gfs has essence of jan 93 about it. Oh the memories.

As much as I don't mind the Atlantic gales and a few mild breaks. You should also consider that the winter mildies emperor high pressure system (Bartlett) was actually the answer to opening the gates to the most snowiest period known to man. The ultimate 1947! It was an unbelievable turn around from raging zonality too. You would not have been able to imagine it if it was to be repeated without any idea it was going to happen.

Pretty ironic in itself really, as it is what we fear most for the warmest conditions to happen! Just goes to show that anything can happen and just flip as quick as you can blink. 

[karlos1983]

Listen up coldies.... It's our turn now. Here barty barty! Lol4 years plus since a substantial gale, tonights gfs has essence of jan 93 about it. Oh the memories.

I'm always up for a Gale, we don't get them down here like we used to. The 90's were gales gales gales. I cant remember the last proper storm down south of note in the last 10 years. 80-90mph gusts were not infrequent in Autumn/winter.I'd rather a Blizzard, but that is a 10 year event at best imby, so a deep low is a good 2nd best as far as I'm concerned. Anything but benign boring weather........Zzzzzz

[johnholmes]

As much as I don't mind the Atlantic gales and a few mild breaks. You should also consider that the winter mildies emperor high pressure system (Bartlett) was actually the answer to opening the gates to the most snowiest period known to man. The ultimate 1947! It was an unbelievable turn around from raging zonality too. You would not have been able to imagine it if it was to be repeated without any idea it was going to happen.

Pretty ironic in itself really, as it is what we fear most for the warmest conditions to happen! Just goes to show that anything can happen and just flip as quick as you can blink. 

 

Just goes to show how useless it is, even today, with super models and increasing knowledge about so many meteorological factors, to say this or that pattern cannot change and the next x weeks will be the same. The weather is able to make fools of us all, long may it continue.

[Cloud 10]

Watch for an upper ridge becoming established n scandi as we approach months end. Naefs has been hinting at this for a few runs and now develops a weak high anomoly ..

 

 

The 12z NAEFS seems to be reading your script.

 

 

 

Perhaps some late October warmth to come?

[Frosty.]

Totally agree about the benign stagnant pattern going on way too long, mother nature always finds a way of balancing things out. The very unsettled outlook is set in stone according to all the models and our autumn is about to enter a shiny new phase with gales, heavy rain and potentially stormy conditions, after a good month of that I will be expecting the first snow...then it will be nearly winter, looking forward to posting all those wintry charts covered in lovely shades of blue, :- )

[Geordiesnow]

Nothing wrong with the current output in my eyes, some typical Autuminal weather without anything severe in terms of Gales although there could be some isolated localised flooding in parts with some heavy rainfall projected in the next few days. 

 

Shame there is no signs of the other side of Autumn as far as frosty weather is concerned but I think in terms of cold, my main interest is from November as we get some proper sustained cold developing more widely at Northern latitudes. Far to early to worry about snowcover just yet although it still looks very extensive compared to previous years. 

[Captain Shortwave]

The 12z NAEFS seems to be reading your script.

 

naefsnh-0-0-360.png

 

 

Perhaps some late October warmth to come?

We need the polar vortex to keep moving and not get stuck over Greenland for this to realistically happen, on the plus note a height anomaly over Scandi which might start warm can quite quickly become cold if the warm feed from the south is cut off. We might by then have the means to do that with a stronger jet.

Unfortunately we know how stubborn the polar vortex can be if it reaches Greenland

The z word is going to be used a lot for the time being though

Edited October 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Frosty.]

Tonight could be cold enough for a touch of frost to go with all the fog for central and eastern areas so tomorrow will start crisp but end wet.

[karlos1983]

I think we have been very spoilt this early on with the intense cold to the north and teasing early models, the models have not quite gone our way if you like cold, if we are still seeing these charts modeled next month and the PV stays where it is,it will get pretty exciting, in the mean time, Typical autumn weather with not so typical conditions to our our north and far east can only be good signals for Winter.

I look forward to sharing many moments with you all in the coming months, who knows, November 2010..........