Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Summer Sun]

Now that's what I call the ultimate hairdryer treatment, all that lovely snow melting away. :- (

This is the problem with getting early gains in October it only needs one spell like this and bang its melting rapidly

 

Those cooler uppers which tried to make there way to Scotland at t192 are not making any gains for now its a case of close but no cigar for now

 

 

PV heading to Greenland whilst the UK remains unsettled

 

Edited October 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Aye gavin...early gains just lead to lots of pain, it looks as though the slate will be wiped clean and we start from scratch once the blowtorch is switched off in november, assuming it is.

[Summer Sun]

Other than the extreme north of Scotland it remains fairly mild

 

 

PV continues its trip to Greenland

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Where's these massive record breaking losses SS?  Please enlighten me

 

BFTP

[Summer Sun]

Where's these massive record breaking losses SS?  Please enlighten me

 

BFTP

 

I was merely replying to frosty's comment

 

Now that's what I call the ultimate hairdryer treatment, all that lovely snow melting away. :- (

 

All the fresh snow whats fallen over the past few weeks would melt quite quickly if it turns as mild as ECM shows

 

 

 

If your a coldie the last thing you want to see over Scandinavia is those sort of uppers especially after all the early gains they've had

Edited October 16, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Where's these massive record breaking losses SS?  Please enlighten me

 

BFTP

I think it's the expected blowtorch sw'ly blasting across the currently wintry areas that gav means,

[shedhead]

winter 2013/14 headlines flooding and strong winds mild at time very mild.

 

what a silly comment to make in mid October

It's his opinion John, surely he is entitled to it and to voice it, whether it's what most want to hear or not; indeed labelling a Winter forecast 'silly' in mid October could be construed as being equally silly.  Maybe it's not in the right thread, but by your own admission no one can accurately forecast that far ahead, making every sudmission in the Winter Forecast thread 'silly' by that measure. Perhaps the best time to judge it and all other winter forecasts will be next Feb 28th, not today.

Edited October 16, 2013 by shedhead

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby remaining mild though this could be offset somewhat by the wind and rain, little sign of anything remotely cold, Gales or severe gales are possible at times

 

Hi everyone. Are there any changes to the mild and unsettled theme tonight? Read on to find out with the data used taken from the noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Wednesday October 15th 2013.All models show mild conditions across England and Wales over the next 5 days with tomorrow and maybe Monday seeing windows of drier and brighter weather between spells of rain, sometimes heavy driven on by occasionally strong South to Southwest winds. Temperatures will be well above normal at times both by day and night, especially in any sunshine. In Scotland changes to milder weather will be more limited with temperatures closer to average with a chilly East or ESE wind at times. All this weather is driven by Low pressure in the Eastern Atlantic which goes nowhere fast over these five days.

 

GFS makes few changes to this pattern for the remainder of the run with a succession of Low pressure areas tracking NE close to NW Britain pulling troughs quickly NE and North over the UK. So there would continue to be spells of wet and windy weather alternating with sunshine and showers in strong SW winds and temperatures close to average or somewhat above. Late in the run a change to colder weather occurs as Low pressure to the NE exits East leaving a legacy of NE winds and cold showers over England and Wales with drier and cold weather under a ridge sliding SE over Scotland and Northern Ireland.

 

UKMO tonight shows another surge of mild SSW winds and heavy rain bearing fronts moving NE across Britain  delivering copious rainfall in places while winds become strong for many areas too.

 

GEM shows a replica of the UKMO chart at Day 6 moving on to continue wet and very windy weather across all of Britain as winds remain WSW with active troughs and depressions continuing to cross the Atlantic on a collision course with the British Isles.

 

NAVGEM tonight offers little respite from the same story with rain and strong SW winds regular features to the weather pattern over all of the UK with temperatures remaining on the warm side of average over all.

 

ECM too is particularly unsettled and potentially stormy towards the end of the run as Low pressures deepen further with spells of heavy rain and showers throughout next week.

 

The GFS Ensembles continue to illustrate generally unsettled conditions with rain and strong winds at times in a basically SW or Westerly airflow. Temperatures will hold at levels above average for the most part though some brief colder incursions could deliver a cooler feel of average temperatures briefly almost anywhere but chiefly more towards the North.

 

The Jet Stream is shown to blow sometimes strongly in an Easterly direction across the Atlantic and across or to the South of the UK over the next week. In Week 2 little changes though the flow strengthens further with the core moving a little further North over Scotland with time.

 

In Summary tonight the weather looks like being particularly unsettled over the coming couple of weeks. For much of the time it will be mild though this could be offset somewhat by the wind and rain. Gales or severe gales are possible at times, especially later with little sign of anything remotely cold with little chance of frost and fog issues.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis%282859336%29.htm

[Mr Frost]

I wouldn't worry about Scandinavia snowfall or the PV setting up shop over Greenland in October.

Winter begins December 1st, any snowfall or cold spell in the UK before this date is a bonus.

It is Autumn, rain and mild temperatures are common.

Embrace the British climate in all it's splendid glory and variety!

Oh and post of the year so far goes to the member model rollercoaster...winter is over! Absolute comedy gold. :-D

Edited October 16, 2013 by Mr Frost

[smithyweather]

t192 from ECM shows those cooler uppers making a move to Scotland but at the same time the warmer air to our south makes another push northwards let the battle commence

A closer view

-8c uppers only 450miles from m yhouse. Maybe cold will build up and up and up and then blast down.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

I was merely replying to frosty's comment

 

 

All the fresh snow whats fallen over the past few weeks would melt quite quickly if it turns as mild as ECM shows

 

 

 

If your a coldie the last thing you want to see over Scandinavia is those sort of uppers especially after all the early gains they've had

 

 

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/index.php?app=core&module=attach&section=attach&attach_rel_module=post&attach_id=188717

 

Where does Scandinavian snowfall come into Cohens theory? Also that snowcover is very nicely ahead of previous years. I don't see the 'blow torch' record snowmelting temps getting that far east. 

 

 

 

BFTP

Edited October 16, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[Frosty.]

Oh and post of the year so far goes to the member model rollercoaster...winter is over! Absolute comedy gold. :-D

Nah, Ian Brown's WTF, I dont know what to say with 167 likes (8th January 2013 - 19.34 pm

[swfc]

There seems little doubt that mider weather is due to land but given the big swings in mo I guess the length of it is debatable.the talk over snow melt ete should prob be in the ongoing thread. Imo I can't see the mild air pushing that far into the siberia area ete.labouring the point can be tiresome and slightly boring given its mid oct!!!

[throwoff]

Mild spell in October is nought to worry about. Rather get the atlantic spell out the way and then see how we sit later into November.

[Summer Sun]

Nah, Ian Brown's WTF, I dont know what to say with 167 likes (8th January 2013 - 19.34 pm

 

Yep post of the year goes to Ian with out doubt its down to 164 likes for now

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75477-winter-model-discussion-cold-hunting-080113-00z-onwards/?p=2470456

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Yep post of the year goes to Ian with out doubt its down to 164 likes for now

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/75477-winter-model-discussion-cold-hunting-080113-00z-onwards/?p=2470456

 

168 likes for 1 post, gosh that was unbelievable! think Steve Murr leads the 'likes' though, something like 10000, off 10000 posts

[Timmytour]

Not too worried about a blow torch getting into Scandinavia or Siberia in early November...it's happened in certain other years.....

[Mark Neal.]

Not too worried about a blow torch getting into Scandinavia or Siberia in early November...it's happened in certain other years.....

 

Wonder what that winter turned out to be like?

 

Anyway a Atlantic firing up as we speak, low pressure systems moving in and a return to milder SW winds. Drier interludes but a predominant spell of weather systems being lined up to spread SW-NE for us, strong winds tied in aswell, but temperatures average or above average so not feeling cold. No need to panic, PV can move and break up as we head into winter or during winter.

 

Matt Hugo has some good news, some long range models looking at northern blocking being a common feature through the winter months.

 

EC seasonal update for Oct indicates higher than average pressure to the N of the UK for Dec/Jan/Feb, a consistent signal from past months.

EUROSIP showing something similar. Weak signal for higher than average pressure to the NW and lower to the S and SE. Blocked pattern.

[Yarmy]

Not too worried about a blow torch getting into Scandinavia or Siberia in early November...it's happened in certain other years.....

 

Big chunk of PV is heading towards Greenland too. Low heights to our NW. Positive NAO.

 

Winter 62/63 is over.

[ribster]

 

Now that's what I call the ultimate hairdryer treatment, all that lovely snow melting away. :- (

This is the problem with getting early gains in October it only needs one spell like this and bang its melting rapidly

 

Those cooler uppers which tried to make there way to Scotland at t192 are not making any gains for now its a case of close but no cigar for now

 

 

 

PV heading to Greenland whilst the UK remains unsettled

 

 

 

Win win as far as I''m concerned, at this time of year if it ain't cold, it's usually wet and vice versa, plus the days are short and dark - wonderful! As has been said, it's only mid October, plenty of time for the cold to arrive, and plenty more long dark nights to come.

[Snowman.]

Nah, Ian Brown's WTF, I dont know what to say with 167 likes (8th January 2013 - 19.34 pm

That was brilliant.

[tight isobar]

I was merely replying to frosty's comment

 

 

All the fresh snow whats fallen over the past few weeks would melt quite quickly if it turns as mild as ECM shows

 

 

 

If your a coldie the last thing you want to see over Scandinavia is those sort of uppers especially after all the early gains they've had

I was merely replying to frosty's comment

 

 

All the fresh snow whats fallen over the past few weeks would melt quite quickly if it turns as mild as ECM shows

 

 

 

If your a coldie the last thing you want to see over Scandinavia is those sort of uppers especially after all the early gains they've had

[bluearmy]

Glad to read some sense on here this evening re snow cover in scandi. Its october !!!!!!!!!!!!!! it matters not about snowcover in scandi and nw russia in October.

Looking at the extended ens output from ecm, we see the polar profile taking on a more traditional look with the vortex axis siberia to ne canada. However, the heights on the other side of the pole mean that the mean jet stays south of where we would expect it to be at this stage of autumn and that means we probably stay well in the firing line of systems headed our way. The only thing looking like coming to our aid would be that rise in heights to our east but that currently seems unlikely to be close enough nor strong enough. On the basis that things even themselves out over a long period, a few weeks of rain and average/mild temps is ok as we head into november. Lets save the below av precip for the winter months as we know that this tends to come in tandem with below av temps.

EDIT: naefs 12z has a good go with those heights to our east later in week 2.

Edited October 16, 2013 by bluearmy

[tight isobar]

This sort of modeled scenarios, can indeed be interpreted, as mirror opp, actualy! With the jet being modeled as so unpredictable at the almost cusp of crosslink,via autumn through early winter.such variance of the stream over evolutionary, buckling north/ south over evolve, is most certain (imo), of either a mild lovers dream or indeed a cold fans, in the evolving) win win.by months end I,ll stick my neck out and project dramatic viewing, and most likely in end fruition, for one side or other....

[smithyweather]

This sort of modeled scenarios, can indeed be interpreted, as mirror opp, actualy! With the jet being modeled as so unpredictable at the almost cusp of crosslink,via autumn through early winter.such variance of the stream over evolutionary, buckling north/ south over evolve, is most certain (imo), of either a mild lovers dream or indeed a cold fans, in the evolving) win win.by months end I,ll stick my neck out and project dramatic viewing, and most likely in end fruition, for one side or other....

Eh what does this mean?