Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Allseasons-Si]

Ok,not the most reliable model but...

 

The 12z gem @ 126hrs is more bullish at throwing the scandi trough closer to our shores than the 00z,

 

00z 12z.

Edited October 12, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Captain Shortwave]

Ok,not the most reliable model but...

 

The 12z gem @ 126hrs is more bullish at throwing the scandi trough closer to our shores than the 00z,

 

00zgem-0-126.png 12z-1.png.

It doesn't turn out too well doesn't it, Ireland gets absolutely blow torched 

 

18C uppers for all!!! Insanity....

The UK is rather warm too

That would probably bring close to record breaking temperatures for parts of the UK if this set up.

Which it won't because it's the GEM and has gone completely bonkers.

Edited October 12, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Allseasons-Si]

It doesn't turn out too well doesn't it, Ireland gets absolutely blow torched 

 

18C uppers for all!!! Insanity....

The UK is rather warm too

That would probably bring close to record breaking temperatures for parts of the UK if this set up.

Which it won't because it's the GEM and has gone completely bonkers.

 

 

And way out in FL,still one to watch though(that trough in scandi) through the next few days CS.

Edited October 12, 2013 by allseasons-si

[Summer Sun]

It doesn't turn out too well doesn't it, Ireland gets absolutely blow torched 

 

18C uppers for all!!! Insanity....

The UK is rather warm too

That would probably bring close to record breaking temperatures for parts of the UK if this set up.

Which it won't because it's the GEM and has gone completely bonkers.

 

Wow that would bring some very warm weather for the time of year to all parts

[Frosty.]

The main story next week on the Gfs 12z op run is becoming much milder/warmer across the south later next week with temps rocketing towards the mid 60's F and especially warm by the following sun/mon when temps could reach the low 70's F. In the reliable timeframe, the trough which is bringing cool and unsettled weather will slowly fill but on this run it spreads further north by early next week before finally being shunted out of the way by a ridge building south but any respite is only shortlived because an atlantic depression will drive fronts north and east across the uk with bands of rain but with much milder Tropical Maritime air following in behind the rain, at least across the southern half of the uk. This run shows an offshoot of the very cold air from northeast europe spreading into the far north of the BI but it gets cut off by high pressure drifting southeast from iceland but the north of the uk has a rather cold spell with temps struggling in the mid to upper single digits celsius, this run only really wakes up towards the end when the atlantic fires up with a more mobile westerly type pattern evolving.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows much milder & unsettled weather spreading northeastwards across the uk from midweek but the far south/se could have some fine and warmer spells thanks to a ridge of high pressure across northern france, by the end of next week the mean shows a slow moving trough over the top of the uk bringing a cyclonic spell of sunshine and showers and longer spells of rain, further on, the trough fills and clears away with drier but cooler air spreading down from the north.

[Cloud 10]

It really feels like winter model watching seeing tonights 12z ECM roll out,with a huge pool of cold air to the North-East and the Atlantic struggling to make inroads.

 

 

 

I think wet rather than white for the moment though. 

[Skullzrulerz]

At there's one model trying to say cold.

[Summer Sun]

At there's one model trying to say cold.

 

Not for long though ECM joins the mild and wet crew in the end

 

 

Good agreement now for milder air to arrive during the second half of next week so cool at first but becoming milder and wetter

Edited October 12, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Skullzrulerz]

Not for long though ECM joins the mild and wet crew in the end

 

 

Good agreement now for milder air to arrive during the second half of next week so cool at first but becoming milder and wetter

I was talking about the black hole of cold air above us.

[Frosty.]

Not for long though ECM joins the mild and wet crew in the end

 

 

Good agreement now for milder air to arrive during the second half of next week so cool at first but becoming milder and wetter

I think it's on a knife edge later next week, I really think there is a chance that the north of the uk, especially the far north could tap into some colder air associated with the bitter cold plunge across scandinavia..it's getting interesting, if the jet keeps being modelled further south, more of the uk would become colder. 

[Skullzrulerz]

I think it's on a knife edge later next week, I really think there is a chance that the north of the uk, especially the far north could tap into some colder air associated with the bitter cold plunge across scandinavia..it's getting interesting, if the jet keeps being modelled further south, more of the uk would become colder. 

Just about anything can happen.

[Frosty.]

Just about anything can happen.

True, I think there are very interesting developments tonight with arctic air spreading southwest and mild/warm air spreading northeast from the azores, at least scotland could have a relatively colder spell.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends with the colder uppers getting pushed a bit further away

 

 

Notice as well that pressure becomes lower over Greenland

Edited October 12, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

ECM ends with the colder uppers getting pushed a bit further away

 

 

Notice as well that pressure becomes lower over Greenland

Thankfully it's only mid october, doesn't matter so much for the next 4-6 weeks.

[Frosty.]

Tonight's Ecm 12z op run has thrown a spanner in the works for later next week with the milder air struggling to take over, indeed, it gets pushed south again for a time before finally creeping north at the end, the retrograde block is marching boldly in a south westerly direction and the far north of the uk is shown to be rather colder than anywhere else later next week, so, the gfs is more bullish about much milder air spreading up across the southern half of the uk beyond midweek, the ecm is much more reluctant tonight.

[A.J]

ECM ends with the colder uppers getting pushed a bit further away

Notice as well that pressure becomes lower over Greenland

 I don't know Gavin, according to this model, it's looking 'nippy' and definitely forecasting some high pressure!

 

 

 

I'll fetch me coat

[Man With Beard]

Not for long though ECM joins the mild and wet crew in the end

Good agreement now for milder air to arrive during the second half of next week so cool at first but becoming milder and wetter

Yes that may be true but the set-up is fascinating - just as it was earlier this year when a weak-seeming ridge of HP north of Scotland kept defying the models, until they finally realised it wasn't going anyway that is - well this is a re-run, a couple of days ago the ridge appeared on the wane by T168 but now the models show it reinvigorating. Other synoptics keep it warmer in southern UK but the north is looking closer to a cold blast - and north-eastern europe/Russia stay cold for the foreseeable.

I was wondering a few days ago if this might happen and hey presto.

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, wind and rain from mid week, for now the signs of cold weather from either the North and North-east in the next week or two has receded.

 

Good evening folks. Here is the evening report on the 12 noon outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for Saturday October 12th 2013.

 

All models continue the theme of Low pressure near SE Britain continuing to feed spells of sometimes heavy rain across Southern and Eastern England and Wales over the next few days with some strong Northerly winds developing on the Western and SW flank of this small but vigorous feature. Elsewhere rather quieter weather will continue with fine and bright days but chilly nights in the NW with patchy mist and fog and a touch of frost in the glens. This drier weather extends to the wetter areas by Tuesday as the Atlantic forces the small Low away East at the expense of increasing South or SW winds with a spell of rain for all followed by a brighter and drier interlude on Thursday as a weak ridge passes East. Temperatures, after the rather cool conditions in the wet weather towards the South and East would recover later next week as winds settle SW.

 

GFS then shows Low pressure down to the SW edging towards the UK with pulses of heavy rain swinging North and East across the UK in mild Southerly breezes. The Low then fills as we move through the start of week 2 as it crosses the UK with a more Westerly bias settling in after that with rain at times with colder conditions occurring over the North at times as cold fronts pass.

 

UKMO tonight shows the end of next week Low pressure well anchored out over the Atlantic with Southerly winds bringing spells of sometimes heavy and perhaps thundery rain with the least rain and drier spells most likely to be biased towards the NE of the UK.

 

GEM tonight shows a very unsettled and wet period later next week with Low pressure well established to the West of the UK with smaller but significant Lows delivering wind and spells of rain for all at times. At last the major storm to the SW has been dropped on tonight's run and a period of fine and very warm conditions for October has been put in it's place which is probably as unlikely as what has been shown of late at that range.

 

NAVGEM has the UK engaged in a sustained spell of SW winds with rain and showers running NE across the UK on regular occasions through the latter half of next week and the weekend. Despite this the weather would remain mild for all areas.

 

ECM tonight shows a mild SW flow too with Low pressure out to the West closing in towards the UK as we move out of next weekend and into the start of the following week. There would inevitably be rain at times with some heavy bursts around in a fresh but mild SW wind for all.

 

The GFS Ensembles state an unsettled spell to come with some copious rainfall events through the period both North and South. With regard to the temperatures they look very average for the main part with some mild days for all but some members offering some colder incursions too.

 

The Jet Stream currently flowing way North over Iceland and Northern Scandinavia weakens over the coming days before a new arm sets up across the Atlantic and across Southern England from the middle of next week where it generally remains for the reliable time-frame thereafter.

 

In Summary the pattern is much as this morning with a spell of typical Autumn fayre with wind and rain becoming the dominant features from the middle of next week. There will as always be some drier moments when things cool down a little but at least for now the signs of cold weather knocking on the door of the UK from either the North and North-east in the next week or two has receded.

 

http://www.norton-radstockweather.co.uk/Model-Analysis(2859336).htm

[Cloud 10]

 I don't know Gavin, according to this model, it's looking 'nippy' and definitely forecasting some high pressure!

 

index.jpg

 

 

I'll fetch me coat

 

Some noteworthy anomalies on that chart.....

[Skullzrulerz]

Yes that may be true but the set-up is fascinating - just as it was earlier this year when a weak-seeming ridge of HP north of Scotland kept defying the models, until they finally realised it wasn't going anyway that is - well this is a re-run, a couple of days ago the ridge appeared on the wane by T168 but now the models show it reinvigorating. Other synoptics keep it warmer in southern UK but the north is looking closer to a cold blast - and north-eastern europe/Russia stay cold for the foreseeable.I was wondering a few days ago if this might happen and hey presto.

Thats good news for snow cover.

[bluearmy]

True, I think there are very interesting developments tonight with arctic air spreading southwest and mild/warm air spreading northeast from the azores, at least scotland could have a relatively colder spell.

 

and somewhere will have a very wet spell if those two air masses come close to each other.

[Yarmy]

I don't know Gavin, according to this model, it's looking 'nippy' and definitely forecasting some high pressure!

 

index.jpg

 

 

I'll fetch me coat

Mum?!

[Timmytour]

It would be "Extratropical" as it's outside of the tropics. 

Apologies for being off-topic.

Wished you'd said "off-tropic" :)I'm encouraged by the models showing a potential incursion of cold air even if they are later backtracking.  That's how it started off last winter onlty it was a process that began much later in the season.  Hopefully this will be a sign that, come late November, the cold starts to take grip like it ended up doing last year.At the moment though it looks like there's no halfway house as far as temps are concerned. Periods of above average temps, possible incursions of lower than average temps, the battle seems set between north and south rather east against west for the timebeing at least .

[DAVID SNOW]

 I don't know Gavin, according to this model, it's looking 'nippy' and definitely forecasting some high pressure!

 

index.jpg

 

 

I'll fetch me coat

Wow,  that's the biggest northerly toppler  I've ever seen.