Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I could not place that vortex better by hand on a model globe, than where it is right now. The logic gates are definitely in place to flood the not just cold, but the 'brutal' Siberian cold straight down from the NE. Snowvember may well be a talking point if these charts further down the line do come to verification. 

The cold over Siberia has definitely kicked off with a head start this season, and looks like it will get better and more fierce as time goes on. 

As we know, snow cover helps to build huge strong blocking areas of high pressure. So if we can get a solid covering of snow early to Western Russia and Scandi, we could well be cooking with gas further down the line. 

[Summer Sun]

ECM 12z ensemble is out time to compare t240 which has got a bit of interest

 

Op

 

 

Ensemble

 

 

Bigger view side by side Op left ensemble right

 

Edited October 10, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

Anyone who remembers the snow at the end of october 2008 will know that tonight's Ecm 12z is synoptically far superior and further on it would bring a very unusually early wintry blast which would last a good while and turn colder and colder with an increasing threat of snow from the north.

[smithyweather]

Well I remain pessimistic when it comes to snow..

[karlos1983]

interesting to see the higher heights around greenland persisting with a mean upper ridge in that locale. i just cant get excited about the prospects of cold in october - sorry. all i want to see is the lw pattern maintained thus the upcoming snowfall in n asia does not thaw until such time that any thaw this side of year end becomes unlikely. the way the vortex is positioned this week plus the scandi trough to follow does give rise to the prospect that russian snowcover could make it quite a long way west for the time of year and the siberian high may attempt to establish itself that bit further west than usual. that would be retrogressive by definition. one thing that should be noted is that despite decent anomolys to our north, the lack of a low anomoly over mainland europe means we will struggle to advect cold over the uk. so those winter anomly charts that look great for northern blocking - i suggest a low anomoly of some kind to our south is just as important if you want to see the uk colder than normal.

Very true bluearmy, a nice developing low in the med and setting up over northern Italy would be ideal! Although still probably to early to bring any decent cold to the uk as a whole or away from high ground, hopefully these charts are still showing next month, along with snow over continuing its advances west, and with heights over Greenland, most of key factors will be in place. Great viewing nonetheless Edited October 10, 2013 by karlos1983

[lorenzo]

Stunning Day 10 chart from ECM, here is the CMC outlook for snow accumulation over that period should something similar verify. Consistent gains between 72 and 144 hrs also evident on this run.

 

Have not been able to check properly, did the Canadian model get upgraded recently to increase resolution towards being on a par with the ECM, anyone know?

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

ECM 12z ensemble is out time to compare t240 which has got a bit of interest

 

Op

 

 

Ensemble

 

 

Bigger view side by side Op left ensemble right

 

Yes that is interesting, it's difficult to believe but there seems to be amazing agreement there with the ECM , if it's any of the models that picks up on a trend that far out and actually has a chance of coming close to verification then it would be the ECM . Very early days of course ,

[johnholmes]

PLEASE ECM 12z operational.i'M BEGGING YOU...just for once...PLEASE VERIFY @ T+240 hours.......what a stunner that would turn into by a day or two later..    EPIC......Make it so........ 

 

how about a touch of realism! Neither you nor I can really say what T+48 might look like. EVEN if the -5 advceted south how likely is it to produce snow at anything other than hilly areas? Does the precip chart show anything falling, and  at T+240, come on frosty you are just having a laugh but some newcomers might not realise this

Very true bluearmy, a nice developing low in the med and setting up over northern Italy would be ideal! Although still probably to early to bring any decent cold to the uk as a whole or away from high ground, hopefully these charts are still showing next month, along with snow over continuing its advances west, and with heights over Greenland, most of key factors will be in place.

Great viewing nonetheless

 

caution about a Med low as well. They are notorious if you look back at those set ups for milder low level air coming into the UK and the predicted snow being rain for most other than quite high ground.

[Frosty.]

how about a touch of realism! Neither you nor I can really say what T+48 might look like. EVEN if the -5 advceted south how likely is it to produce snow at anything other than hilly areas? Does the precip chart show anything falling, and at T+240, come on frosty you are just having a laugh but some newcomers might not realise thisd.

Hi John I'm just commenting on a chart which has exceptional potential that's all, I would love it to verify and got carried away, I'm a weather geek who would love an early blast of winter. :-)

[Cloud 10]

Stunning Day 10 chart from ECM, here is the CMC outlook for snow accumulation over that period should something similar verify. Consistent gains between 72 and 144 hrs also evident on this run.

cmc_snow_acc_asia_41.png

 

Have not been able to check properly, did the Canadian model get upgraded recently to increase resolution towards being on a par with the ECM, anyone know?

 

Might have been upgraded vertically for stratosphere modelling?

 

FUTURE DEVELOPMENT

Development projects include:

• The completion of a 4D variational data-assimilation system;
• The completion of a non-hydrostatic version;
• Vertical extension of the model for stratospheric modeling and data assimilation;
• The development of spectral and limited-area versions of the model.

[Timmytour]

Hi John I'm just commenting on a chart which has exceptional potential that's all, I would love it to verify and got carried away, I'm a weather geek who would love an early blast of winter. :-)

 

The optimism is admirably overdone but understandable. :)There's room for allowing what newcomers might think, but let's not also forget that it's the regulars that make the forums live and breathe and I think a bit of tongue-in-the-cheek hyperbole banter is one of those things that keeps me smiling and enjoying coming to the forum as well as the informatative posts of the many posters on here who lend their interpretations to what the models are showing.Interesting what may develop 10 days on from here.....but I think over this timeframe over the last few months the models have been particularly inconsistent, so no chicken-counting.  In addition...as others have noted.....for everything that's happening now...the build up of snowfields to the east, a prospect of an early blast of cold (snowed in Munich today i think)....it will mean nothing for the rest of winter. Except I'll be more glued to this forum than ever! 

[damianslaw]

I said yesterday - the upstream pattern to our north is very conducive for a slow moving cut off low feature to our west/south west, anchored down in time by strengthening heights to our NW aided crucially by the key player - the position of the polar vortex.

 

It therefore shouldn't come as a surprise to see the synoptics being offered by ECM this evening for the end of next week - its a very plausible evolution based on the projected upstream profile- indeed you don't get much better textbook profile for a chilly northerly blast.

 

As ever though we can't bank on such an evolution verifying at such a timescale - we could see a west based negative NAO set up which would mean a more cyclonic outlook with low pressure steered more directly across the country cutting off the chance of a northerly.

 

Either way - the arctic profile is very interesting at the moment, with the olar vortex locked over Siberia a long way from its more normal Greenland home.

[SMU]

It has happened before-

 

October 19th 1880 - 3 inches of snow in London-

 

looks very similar to the ECM!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1880/archivesnh-1880-10-19-0-0.png

 

S

[gottolovethisweather]

So much for cold then for now.

 

Check post 831 above yours and look at the huge potential there. Before that, check the date on the calendar because we are a LONG way off winter proper. Unfortunately for your location and for a vast part of England and Wales at least, wintry precipitation is but a dream at this stage! However, the optimist in me suggests the 18th through to the 20th October could be a period to watch, after the warmer blip early to mid-part of next week.

 

The second chart on this post from yesterday - http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78005-model-output-discussion-12hrs-011013/?p=2803919 also shows the possibility of something most unusual, synoptically speaking for the time of year around the same timeframe. From there we have continued since yesterday, at least when looking at the daily ECM 12z runs.

 

A tooing and froing of very different weather types are on offer next week, I reckon. Early milder/near average to maybe cold/very cold later in the week.

Edited October 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Biggin]

Please put this in the correct area if considered the wrong one in here.

The latest ENSO outlook, link below, neutral through our winter.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf

John  does this mean that El nino will have a less than positive effect on the warming of the seas towards the UK?? And will therefore poss aid the cooling of the UK for winter?? May have got the wrong end of the stick here but am a weather newbie. Mods sorry if  is posted in the wrong place. If you move it giss a clue where ta

[johnholmes]

John  does this mean that El nino will have a less than positive effect on the warming of the seas towards the UK?? And will therefore poss aid the cooling of the UK for winter?? May have got the wrong end of the stick here but am a weather newbie. Mods sorry if  is posted in the wrong place. If you move it giss a clue where ta

 

hi Biggin

My answer is much the same as to the last one asking-I do not have sufficient in depth knowledge to be able to answer you question-sorry

 

anyone else able to answer Biggin?

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

John  does this mean that El nino will have a less than positive effect on the warming of the seas towards the UK?? And will therefore poss aid the cooling of the UK for winter?? May have got the wrong end of the stick here but am a weather newbie. Mods sorry if  is posted in the wrong place. If you move it giss a clue where ta

 

Hi Biggin,

 

My understanding (limited as it is) is that El Nino setups are conducive to colder winters and La Nina tend to be mild.  BUT that's not set in stone as there are an awful lot of variables that can affect what's happening.  JH always suggests looking at the "Netweather Guides" as a starting point and that's where I started.  We have an awful lot of expertise on this site, too many names to go through, but look at the guides, follow the "In Depth" thread (tends to be less frenetic than in here) and feel free to ask, 99% of people will help, I can't speak for the other 1%

[AWD]

I believe ENSO is the value of SST anomalies within the equatorial waters. An ENSO neutral forecast would suggest little variance within SST values, with average SST's therefore expected.

What this means for the UK is a little less clear and more speculative but to break it down into laymans terms, an ENSO neutral UK winter would favour average weather patterns, therefore an average winter with no swing in either the mild or cold direction.

[lorenzo]

It has happened before-

 

October 19th 1880 - 3 inches of snow in London-

 

looks very similar to the ECM!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1880/archivesnh-1880-10-19-0-0.png

 

S

 

Steve, how on earth did you manage to find an identical chart from 133 years ago !! 

 

John  does this mean that El nino will have a less than positive effect on the warming of the seas towards the UK?? And will therefore poss aid the cooling of the UK for winter?? May have got the wrong end of the stick here but am a weather newbie. Mods sorry if  is posted in the wrong place. If you move it giss a clue where ta

 

El Nino and La Nina create a different atmospheric base and both winters where there are strong events have different impacts on the NH background states. Neutral as AWD less so.

 

Last Winter a paper published quoted this extract relating to El Nino types with a Central Pacific Nino correlating with a Negative NAO. 

 

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/2011JD016493/abstract

 

 

1] This study contributes to the discussion on possible effects of El Niño on North Atlantic/European regional climates. We use NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data to show how the two different types of El Niños (the central Pacific, or CP, and the east Pacific, or EP) result in remarkably different European winter temperature anomalies, specifically weak warming during EP and significant cooling during CP El Niños, the latter being associated with a negative phase of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Our results diverge from former suggestions addressing the weakened stratospheric polar vortex as the dominant factor contributing to the El Niño/NAO teleconnection. We propose a tropospheric bridge as the mechanism primarily responsible for the establishment of a negative NAO phase and of associated cold European winters. This mechanism includes the subtropical jet (STJ) waveguide being activated only during CP El Niños, when anomalous convective heating occurs near the edge of the Pacific warm pool. Under these conditions the STJ is enhanced by planetary wave flux divergence in the subtropical upper troposphere, providing favorable conditions for the propagation of a wave number 5 disturbance around the subtropical Northern Hemisphere. This wave contributes to weakening of the Azores High and, hence, to the negative NAO phase. As global warming scenarios project an increase in the frequency of CP El Niño events, the distinctive nature of this mechanism implies that the probability of cold European winters may increase as well in future decades.

 

 

Edited October 10, 2013 by lorenzo

[Timmytour]

It has happened before-

 

October 19th 1880 - 3 inches of snow in London-

 

looks very similar to the ECM!!

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/reana/1880/archivesnh-1880-10-19-0-0.png

 

S

I like that!  But....as if to prove the point that even if we ended up with something similar this year it's no guarantee of what's to come (and i know you've not been saying this) ...it looks a lot different to 1962 at the same time of the year.....but if we could guarantee that the weather of this winter was a rinse and repeat of a previous year, I'd rather have 1962's

 

Edited October 10, 2013 by Timmytour

[swfc]

Anyone got anythoughts on the 18z? Looks pretty similar to the ecm until the pv performs a fantastic jump across the nh!

[MR EXTREMES]

incredible models across the board shows very intense cold into Europe and scandi ok so were stuck in southwesterly flow but heads up northern Scotland just maybe you could have absolutely something exciting.

its certainly getting exciting early this year and that cold is intense and early fantastic watching these models.

[Captain Shortwave]

Probably a tad quick but the UKMO shows a lot of promise this morning with some cold, unstable air swinging south, things would be shaping up nicely from here

ECM at the same time

So it's probably the UKMO T144 being a little too quick with a potential pattern change, let's see if the ECM can repeat yesterday evenings run

Edit - ECM has binned it again by the looks of it

Edited October 11, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[MR EXTREMES]

Probably a tad quick but the UKMO shows a lot of promise this morning with some cold, unstable air swinging south, things would be shaping up nicely from here

ECM at the same time

So it's probably the UKMO T144 being a little too quick with a potential pattern change, let's see if the ECM can repeat yesterday evenings run

I agree very progressive but u cant take your eyes of the deep cold to the north northwest and east northeast its almost like ice age incredible.

[lorenzo]

Vortex tries to set off on it's travels this morning on GFS, only to be met with a 1045mb Arctic High fed from a monster Aleutian Ridge, pumping 4 degree 850hpa temps up there. Jet still south, with hints of it kicking up a bit again on the Pacific side. 

 

Hints that the vortex wants to move from Siberian home to the usual place we don't like to see it, over Greenland, on GEM, lots going on here, the Greenland block stubbornly holding on, a lively feature in the Atlantic, and generally plenty of trough solutions around the Northern Hemisphere.

 

The GEM run is an interesting watch as the twin lows slowly ebb Eastward, before combining to form one low parked over the UK on a slow SSW - NNE path. Right in the queue behind an extratropical feature looking purposeful for a direct hit towards the end of October.

 

Interesting model watch coming up as hints of the Atlantic getting if not livelier a little more influential, versus the Blocking looking more stubborn than usual and prevalent at higher latitudes.