Model Output Discussion 12hrs. 01/10/13

[Frosty.]

^^^^

 

The 00z cfs for November doesn't look particularly thrilling,i'm assuming the 12z was better. 

 

 

Some very unsettled weather showing on the overnight runs,the gem still showing that FI storm as well.

 

gem-0-240 (1).png

At least with an unsettled outlook there will be a good chance of occasional rPm and polar maritime incursions as well as lots of Tropical maritime, variety at least rather than stagnation. autumn comes to life at last...

[Summer Sun]

Another mild and at times wet run from ECM this morning with only the north briefly becoming chilly again

 

Edited October 12, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, temperatures well up to average if not above at times with rain and showers

 

Hi everyone. Here is today's morning report on the midnight outputs from GFS, UKMO, GEM, NAVGEM and ECM for today Saturday october 12th 2013.

 

All models show an unsettled spell in the SE for the next few days as a small but vigorous Low settles near East Anglia over the next 48 hours giving a small but marked area of heavy rain here from tonight until Monday. Other areas though quite cloudy stay dry and bright and the cool wind will slowly die down from Southern areas though staying breezy in the East near the Low. By Tuesday all areas see a brief more settled interlude before Atlantic troughs whisk their way NE across all areas midweek accompanied by fresh to strong but milder SW winds and rain followed by showers in the West later.

 

GFS then moves on with some very wet weather at times gradually becoming more confined to the South as the North sees colder air from the North slide down on the Eastern flank of high pressure over the North Atlantic. Southern areas continue with rain in association with Low pressure to the SW with a slow trend to drier conditions here too as a ridge slips South. It would become chilly everywhere with some frost and fog in the North for a time. Late in the run Atlantic winds regain control with some wind and rain at times returning especially in the north. It would become somewhat milder and more windy again generally.

 

UKMO today shows next Friday with Thursday's rain and showers having cleared East with most places under a weak ridge ahead of more rain and strong winds looking like attacking the UK over next weekend. It would become relatively mild if windy.

 

GEM today shows a very unsettled period later next week with a potentially stormy period at the end of the run as it continues to model an ex-tropical storm getting wound up in the general Low pressure circulation near the UK giving rise to a lot of rain and some potentially damaging gusts of wind to the SW later should it evolve. Though mild for most and certainly in the South the North will become colder towards the end of the period with some snowfall on the mountains of Scotland possible.

 

NAVGEM also has Low pressure becoming entrenched near the West of the UK by this time next week with troughs on the previous days having brought mild and windy weather with rain or showers continuing well into the weekend and beyond.

 

ECM this morning also shows a unsettled end to next week with rain at times before it shows a more believable split in low pressure systems next weekend as pressure rises over the UK from both the North and the South with a quieter spell developing over the North especially next weekend though with a trough shown straddling the South this morning further rain is likely here in lighter winds than the days previous. It would also turn somewhat cooler briefly with a fog risk in the North for a time before all areas become milder and wetter again under SW winds at the end of the run.

 

The GFS Ensembles look typically Autumnal now with spells of rain shown for all regions throughout the two weeks. Some of the rain could be heavy with just brief brighter spells perhaps becoming more evident for the far NE late in the run. It will be windy at times and temperatures will be generally close to average for mid October or a shade above at times with no reliably cold weather shown as yet.

 

The Jet Stream currently flowing East over the Arctic weakens and relocates much further South through next week as the Atlantic Lows move in. It then holds over or to the South of the UK for some considerable time thereafter.

 

In Summary it continues to look as though we are all going to receive a spell of typically wet and windy weather which once again this year has failed to show it's hand much thus far this Autumn. So with SW winds and Low pressure areas crossing the Atlantic and eventually over the UK all areas can expect some heavy rain and showers at times with temperatures well up to average if not above at times, offset by the rain. There are some drier interludes programmed such as from ECM and conversely a major storm system is still shown by GEM to affect the SW in a week or so with potential sever gales and is certainly one to watch. So all in all for once I can report a typically Autumn spell of weather of the potentially wet and wild variety looking likely although I concede 'wild' may be stretching it a bit far.

[Summer Sun]

It will be touch and go but we may not be done with 20c temperatures yet especially in the south

 

We get very close next week to 20c

 

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean is very interesting, cold air is never far to the north of the uk and even flirts with the very far north for a while but the main message from this run is we are heading towards a much more unsettled outlook, there is just a brief suckers gap next wednesday, following the departure of our persistent trough from the south/se and atlantic low pressure pushing east, there is also arctic air flooding south into the atlantic which just adds extra fuel to the low out west, so an unsettled, windier and milder outlook for most of us but perhaps colder air in the mix across the far north, the best of any fine and dry intervals reserved for the southeast.

[MR EXTREMES]

as I suggested the models are wobbling but what is amazing is the amount of cold air to the north in all direction incredible,

and I suggested northern areas could get a real blast of cold air I stand by what im seeing southern areas look average or slightly above,keep watching its building brrrrrrrrr

we need better trough disruption from our east looks like the shortwaves to our east might help slow the alantic onslaught if this pans out right we could get some cold to tap into. I think possible cool and unsettled half way situation but I do think more runs needed to see if the alantic can truly blast through.

 

[MR EXTREMES]

we need better trough disruption from our east looks like the shortwaves to our east might help slow the alantic onslaught if this pans out right we could get some cold to tap into. I think possible cool and unsettled half way situation but I do think more runs needed to see if the alantic can truly blast through.

 

ok  in regards to my last comment it does look like a fail be nice to see heights lower to out south allowing low to dive a little futher south but all in all Europe getting pasted more so northeastern Europe and some amazing cold here in the uk nice autumn lows and colder in the north not extremely but moutains will get some nice snow fall aswell.

 

gem show a rather nasty system to our southwest infact could bring some dangerous winds.

 

all in all im not disappointed things are developing nicely and model watch is now a lot more intresting regardless whether 20c is reached which I might add is unlikely but possible maybe.

[Man With Beard]

as I suggested the models are wobbling but what is amazing is the amount of cold air to the north in all direction incredible,and I suggested northern areas could get a real blast of cold air I stand by what im seeing southern areas look average or slightly above,keep watching its building brrrrrrrrr

Yes I think this is about right, the chances of it turning cold in the next couple of weeks are small but potential is building for further down the line - though 'potential' is not the same as 'guarantee' of course

[bluearmy]

the week 2 nwp currently showing a drift towards a typical autumnal setup (mobile w/e).  the upper greenland ridge seems to be on its way out. anomolous low heights (to some degree) remain in the n asia area so that should be good for further snow build.

[Frosty.]

The GFS 06z op is a very unsettled run with low pressure to the west becoming the dominant feature, lots of wind and rain, especially for the north & west, the best of the drier, brighter and milder weather for the south & east between rain bands...A very nice end to the 6z with an E'ly blast across the north, follow the source of the easterly and colder air is being pumped into the flow from eastern europe/russia so it would feel very raw in that wind, hopefully we will have siberian blasts this winter as well as arctic outbreaks..please. 

Edited October 12, 2013 by Frosty.

[nick sussex]

In the more medium term the models still show some uncertainty with whether any of that cold air to the ne will flirt with the far north of the UK.

The ECM postage stamps do have good agreement for the overall pattern in Europe but quite a lot of disagreement with the southwards extent of that colder air:

http://www.ecmwf.int/samples/d/inspect/catalog/samplers/banner/mean_sea_level_pressure_and_temperature_at_850hpa!168!pop!od!enfo!enplot!2009112700!!/

The problem really is the lack of low heights in central Europe here and that ne ridge extension in tandum with an unfavourable jet axis means that any cold air is unlikely for the timebeing to make it further south than Scotland.

We're not seeing however the PV setting up shop in Greenland with the tendency for heights to remain lowest to the ne so its not by any means the typical standard fare.

Indeed if you look at the recent models they have corrected south to a degree, a few days back this troughing was further north. I'm not sure how much more southwards correction we could see here but certainly if you're in the far north especially the Shetland Isles still a chance it could turn colder here although at present this looks temporary.

[tinybill]

morning  all all i can say is from now till now deep  into fantasy world its looking like its  going  to get very  wet

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

[Bristawl Si]

morning  all all i can say is from now till now deep  into fantasy world its looking like its  going  to get very  wet http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=6 http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

Hmm.....must be a chance that the overall pattern is truly adjusting itself into a wetter second half of Autumn. With it being predominately dry for a number of months is the weather about to enter a more prolonged wetter phase, maybe stretching well into Winter?The weather has a habit of balancing itself out.

[ITSY]

some really fascinating charts on offer from the 06Z set. After the current cool snap and wild weather subsides, we get potential glimpses of Steve M's famous 'sausage high', with various outputs from the ens supporting the OP with the building of HP over Iceland and Scandinavia. The ens suite for central Germany, which the op plasters in snow in FI land, demonstrate that it is by no means alone in painting that scenario. Certainly only one of many different possible scenarios, but it paints the idea of 2 blocking setups at different points in October, which gives me some optimism for such developments to take shape over the coming winter months.

 

Central Germany: http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=759&y=152

[Bobby]

Would be interesting if the GEM came off with a tropical cyclone heading our way, hurricane force winds perhaps for Britanny and tropical style rain. Looks it could strike SE England too if it went further.

 

 

If this chart came off (which it very likely won't) would it be classified as an official tropical cyclone? Wikipedia says at least one official tropical cyclone has made landfall in mainland Europe, Hurricane Vince in 2005. Hurricane Debby which hit N. Ireland in 1961 is thought by some to have been a tropical cyclone at landfall too, so they can occur.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_effects_in_Europe

[Steve C]

Would be interesting if the GEM came off with a tropical cyclone heading our way, hurricane force winds perhaps for Britanny and tropical style rain. Looks it could strike SE England too if it went further.

 

 

If this chart came off (which it very likely won't) would it be classified as an official tropical cyclone? Wikipedia says at least one official tropical cyclone has made landfall in mainland Europe, Hurricane Vince in 2005. Hurricane Debby which hit N. Ireland in 1961 is thought by some to have been a tropical cyclone at landfall too, so they can occur.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_effects_in_Europe

 

I find the chart bizarre, considering that the Atlantic is fairly quiet, with regards to tropical development and one wave showing only a 50% chance of further development currently.

 

The chart certainly has a look of an extra-tropical system, but is this definitely one rather than just a potent secondary depression? For a model to show an extra-tropical cyclone, given the circumstances, seems weird to me.

[Panayiotis]

I find the chart bizarre, considering that the Atlantic is fairly quiet, with regards to tropical development and one wave showing only a 50% chance of further development currently.

 

The chart certainly has a look of an extra-tropical system, but is this definitely one rather than just a potent secondary depression? For a model to show an extra-tropical cyclone, given the circumstances, seems weird to me.

Its been quite consistent in showing it too! But we will have to see if it has been consistently wrong or right!

[Skullzrulerz]

Looks like no cold for a week in the south then.

[Mapantz]

Would be interesting if the GEM came off with a tropical cyclone heading our way, hurricane force winds perhaps for Britanny and tropical style rain. Looks it could strike SE England too if it went further.

 

 

If this chart came off (which it very likely won't) would it be classified as an official tropical cyclone? Wikipedia says at least one official tropical cyclone has made landfall in mainland Europe, Hurricane Vince in 2005. Hurricane Debby which hit N. Ireland in 1961 is thought by some to have been a tropical cyclone at landfall too, so they can occur.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_effects_in_Europe

 

It would be "Extratropical" as it's outside of the tropics. 

Apologies for being off-topic.

[Panayiotis]

-

Edited October 12, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Panayiotis]

Please note that the charts in my post http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78005-model-output-discussion-12hrs-011013/page-47#entry2805336 have changed. I tried something new to try and stop them updating but I guess it didnt work!

[Bobby]

It would be "Extratropical" as it's outside of the tropics. 

Apologies for being off-topic.

 

Hurricane Vince hit Spain (which isn't in the tropics) as a tropical cyclone. It seems it's more to do with whether the system has tropical cyclone charactisics rather than what latitude it is.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Vince

 

I find the chart bizarre, considering that the Atlantic is fairly quiet, with regards to tropical development and one wave showing only a 50% chance of further development currently.

 

The chart certainly has a look of an extra-tropical system, but is this definitely one rather than just a potent secondary depression? For a model to show an extra-tropical cyclone, given the circumstances, seems weird to me.

 

It's not a secondary depression as it reminds fairly intact right from the tropics

A few days earlier:

 

Edited October 12, 2013 by Bobby

[Mapantz]

Hurricane Vince hit Spain (which isn't in the tropics) as a tropical cyclone. It seems it's more to do with whether the system has tropical cyclone charactisics rather than what latitude it is.

 

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Vince

 

It depends on what source of air is flowing to the core, extratropical is fueled by cold air which will cause rapid cyclogenesis/bombogenesis, so that's what i meant by being away from the tropics.

 

Since you've posted that chart, it's sparked a memory of last year (i think?) the GFS showed something similar on a few runs, it would have been pretty extreme for the UK if it had come off. I'm wondering whether the GEM has suddenly taken in to account the colder air further North and fancied over-modelling a beast? Always fun to see what occurs though. 

Edited October 12, 2013 by Mapantz

[summer blizzard]

Would be interesting if the GEM came off with a tropical cyclone heading our way, hurricane force winds perhaps for Britanny and tropical style rain. Looks it could strike SE England too if it went further.

 

 

If this chart came off (which it very likely won't) would it be classified as an official tropical cyclone? Wikipedia says at least one official tropical cyclone has made landfall in mainland Europe, Hurricane Vince in 2005. Hurricane Debby which hit N. Ireland in 1961 is thought by some to have been a tropical cyclone at landfall too, so they can occur.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_cyclone_effects_in_Europe

 

Probably not. Looking at the 21st it gets caught by the low to its north and begins to undergo extra-tropical transition.

 

Like Katia 11 it would still contain a significant degree of moisture and probably produce hurricane force gusts.

[Summer Sun]

The low hanging over the SE is taking some shifting

 

Sunday, Monday and Tuesday it sits virtually in the same place each day

 

 

By Wednesday it finally clears

 

 

The week ends with the Atlantic low hanging around and not making much progress

 

 

With that low sitting where it is temperatures should respond hitting the high teens in the south and mid teens for a lot of England and Wales given the warm moist air it will be dragging up