Convective / Storm Discussion - 4th October onwards 2013

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Would love to be under that HUGE MCS in Southern France right now! http://pv.viewsurf.com/?id=236 http://www.webcam-hd.fr/webcams-tourisme/provence-alpes-cote-dazur/bouches-du-rhone/webcam-marseille-live-hd.html Take your pick of these, and watch the lightning strike every second. Marseille.

Edited October 4, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Supacell]

Chances for decent convection over land are rather slim now, unless you were referring to storm chances in general. I say slim as you can still have scenarios where there's an advection of deep cold air aloft or a particularly 'sharp' cold front which result in decent convective activity inland, sometimes severe in the case of the latter (provided the shear environment is favourable). Usually, though, the lightning risk is confined toward coastal regions (much as it has been recently). But it;s unlikely we'll see a substantial risk arise from an advection of deep moist air from the south. Thursday was certainly a good setup for the time of year in that respect.

 

Yes totally agree that chances are now slim. I don't normally get the opportunity to chase after the 30th September to be honest.

 

As you say though, slim but not non-existent. For example, I chased a squall line that formed on the 21st October 2004. This particular squall line caused flooding in Wales along with 70mph gusts of wind around Capel Curig. I caught it in North Derbyshire where it produced marble hail and frequent lightning plus gusts of around 40mph. It is currently in my top 10 of storms observed, and it occurred during the latter half of October. Coastal areas do now benefit from warmer SST's and this fact can make October a better time for storms than mid-summer around our coastlines.

 

My own experiences tell me that July is the most active month of the year for us in the Midlands, followed by August and then June. After this it is May, September then April... and then October

Edited October 5, 2013 by Supacell

[dave48]

A bit late and not the best video but just one I caught as the storm approached on Thursday night. It was certainly very electrically active. It was a fantastic hour and the best storm I have seen for years.

 

[Coast]

Yes totally agree that chances are now slim. 

 

Never say never, but GFS doesn't hold out a lot of hope currently:

 

 

 

[wimblettben]

A video of the storm Early Friday during the night filmed looking to the southwest.

 

NOTE: The sound quality is very poor!

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LoJGFmmXWaQ&feature=youtu.be

[poseidon]

Never say never, but GFS doesn't hold out a lot of hope currently:

 

 

 

 

Never say never indeed - few strikes in Ireland this afternoon, presumably as the cold front moved through.

[Sprites]

Cold fronts moving south with hail and thunder on thursday in eastern areas? , something to keep an eye on perhaps..

[Guest William Grimsley]

Never say never, but GFS doesn't hold out a lot of hope currently:

 

 

 

In terms of convection, this week is going to be very quiet, here.

Edited October 7, 2013 by William Grimsley

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I would expect some North Sea convection out of this cold polar low moving down, SST's will help anyway, as they are around their peak right now. 

Certainly something to watch out for anyway.

[Skeggy Winter Storm]

I would expect some North Sea convection out of this cold polar low moving down, SST's will help anyway, as they are around their peak right now. Certainly something to watch out for anyway.

would be nice to end season we have only had one decent storm here on 23 july had few rumbles here and there

[poseidon]

Met Office just mentioned some showers could be heavy and thundery.

[Coast]

All maybe a bit too far East?

 

[Andy Bown]

I would expect some North Sea convection out of this cold polar low moving down, SST's will help anyway, as they are around their peak right now. 

Certainly something to watch out for anyway.

Not meaning to be pedantic, but there is no Polar Low at all! A Polar Low is an entirely different weather occurrence to the blow of Northerly winds we're going to get for a few days.

[Coast]

Looks like anything convective associated with the low affecting the North Sea is now way out East:

 

 

 

 

 

If you're on an oil rig or boat, you are going to get wet!

 

Edited October 9, 2013 by Coast

[Bluebreezer54]

^^ It is ever thus Robin.

 

(  Good morning btw )

[Coast]

^^ It is ever thus Robin.

 

(  Good morning btw )

 

Morning Martin  

 

I think we've probably rung as much as we can out of the season this year and as always, many will have been delighted and many more will be thoroughly depressed.

 

The great thing is that like every kind of weather, there is always next year and the next after that etc to a point where none of us will be around to worry about it!

[Summer Sun]

Synopsis

 

A classic winter northerly episode will be underway during Wednesday as an upper trough rapidly sharpens and extends southwards down the North Sea, while a large upper ridge becomes established across the eastern Atlantic. An active day for convection is likely across the North Sea, and adjacent coastlines.

 

Discussion

 

A developing cold front, marked by a band of scattered showers, will migrate southwards across all of Britain through Wednesday, introducing colder but drier surface air from the north. Significant cooling will occur in the mid-levels (down to -33C at 500mb), moving atop warm SSTs and generating widespread convection over the North Sea in particular. With a strong north-to-northwesterly flow, scattered showers will affect eastern and northern coastal counties, some heavy and squally with gusty winds, and given such cold air in the vertical many showers will produce some soft hail, with snow above ~700m in Scotland.Rather weak CAPE (a couple of hundred J/kg) will result in sparse lightning activity, which will primarily remain offshore, but given the flow and long sea fetch, there may be an increase in lightning activity near the coast of Norfolk overnight and into the following forecast period (for which we may issue a SLGT).

 

http://ukasf.co.uk/storm-forecasts/285

 

 

[weatherobsuk]

Gusty winds ahead of the front here in the Peaks, temperature has also dropped significantly with slight hints of small hail hitting the windows facing west.

[Convective]

Hints of something next week. Possibly a good chance for many places! 

 

Just a scattering of showers here today, although a few have been heavy enough for some hail. Quite interesting to be honest, the convection has been incredibly shallow. I thought they were just regular fair weather cumulus clouds until the hail started falling out of some of them!

[paul m]

This is for all you storm starved people Enjoy http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=ba7_1381006224

[Coast]

The thundery activity seems to be out East still:

 

 

[Summer Sun]

Apparently 100mph gales are coming in the Scottish Mountains

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435563/100mph-winds-to-batter-Britain-Indian-summer-ends-as-UK-is-set-for-3C-Arctic-plunge

 

Highest wind speed so far today is 57mph at Cairngorm Summit 43mph short of the what the Express have

Edited October 10, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Mapantz]

Apparently 100mph gales are coming in the Scottish Mountains

 

http://www.express.co.uk/news/uk/435563/100mph-winds-to-batter-Britain-Indian-summer-ends-as-UK-is-set-for-3C-Arctic-plunge

 

Highest wind speed so far today is 57mph at Cairngorm Summit 43mph short of the what the Express have

 

I'm pretty sure the BBC or MO tweeted yesterday to say there was 80mph gusts up there, i can't remember the specifics. :s

 

Edit: Just double checked on the BBC twitter page, 93mph at the Cairngorm summit. 

Edited October 10, 2013 by Mapantz

[wimblettben]

I'm pretty sure the BBC or MO tweeted yesterday to say there was 80mph gusts up there, i can't remember the specifics. :s

 

Edit: Just double checked on the BBC twitter page, 93mph at the Cairngorm summit. 

That must have been recorded on a very exposed area.

 

Last time I checked it wasn't suppose to be like armageddon up in northan england, just typical gales with gusts around 50-60mph!

[NorthNorfolkWeather]

That must have been recorded on a very exposed area.

 

Last time I checked it wasn't suppose to be like armageddon up in northan england, just typical gales with gusts around 50-60mph!

and the North sea looks likes this (or it did this morning) at Cromer