Convective / Storm Discussion - 4th October onwards 2013

[Jane Louise]

And here's one from TORRO My turn today Lol, Lots of warnings, so good luck guys.

 

A TORRO CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION has been issued at 09:20GMT on Saturday 19th October 2013

Valid from/until: 09:20 – 21:00GMT on Saturday 19th October 2013 for the following regions of the United Kingdom & Eire:

Wales

Western England

SW Scotland

IoM

Eire

N Ireland

THREATS

Isolated tornadoes; wind gusts to 50mph; CG lightning; hail

SYNOPSIS

A deep upper low and associated surface low are to the SW of the British Isles. Numerous vorticity maxima are rotating around it. Currently, a frontal zone across SE England is waving, as such a vort max approaches. To the west of the frontal zone, a moist, unstable rPm airmass exists, and the approaching vort max has generated a line of heavy showers and thunderstorms. Given the linear nature and modest shear, a few wind gusts are possible with these - the small chance of an isolated tornado.

This broken line will spread across the whole of the discussion area through today, with the associated risks mentioned above. Behind this, more scattered convective activity will occur. This also resides in an environment characterised by shear marginal for severe weather. However, given some low-level veering and a moist airmass/low LCLs, an isolated tornado or two is possible.

Overnight, the convective regime will continue, with another vort max approaching later on. A new forecast is likely to be issued later on to cater for this, but southern and western parts of England and Wales, and southern Eire seem most at risk overnight from isolated tornadoes.

Forecaster: RPK.

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/myimg.gif

[wimblettben]

Do you look at charts, Ben? They are more significant than last time!

I know but what I am saying is that the charts are not always right.

 

That distant storm we had a few weeks ago probably had a lightning strike every 5 seconds or so at one point, it just seems highly unlikely that we will get that again and in a much more widespread area!

[Convective]

Here we go, yellow area shows what's currently giving the showers around the southwest coast. The embedded Cb are providing the downpours we can see on radar. The red area looks beautiful. Strong Cb cells!

 

[Supacell]

Here we go, yellow area shows what's currently giving the showers around the southwest coast. The embedded Cb are providing the downpours we can see on radar. The red area looks beautiful. Strong Cb cells!

 

And it is that red area that I believe will be into mainland UK by tomorrow (fingers crossed).

[Convective]

And it is that red area that I believe will be into mainland UK by tomorrow (fingers crossed).

 

With a bit of luck! 

 

Quite steamy here now. Misty, temperature 15°c, dewpoint 14°c.

[Guest William Grimsley]

With a bit of luck! 

 

Quite steamy here now. Misty, temperature 15°c, dewpoint 14°c.

More likely around the coasts of SW England, Wales and Ireland.

[poseidon]

Wednesday could be another day to keep an eye on - Met Office has a few thunder storm symbols.

[Mapantz]

From an IMBY perspective, i don't think i stand much chance today, tomorrow i think, will be a better day for southern counties. SBCAPE looks a little better, colder ELT's too, any developments will certainly work their way inland as well, so there's potential for many. It does look like the risk continues right in to next week as well. 

Edited October 19, 2013 by Mapantz

[Bobby]

A lively storm across Devon/Cornwall at the moment, quite a few strikes showing. Might be heading this way. Come to Bopa for peanuts!

Hefty downpours across Pembrokeshire too.

[wimblettben]

I have looked at most of the other weather forumns that are online and none of them seem to be as excited about this convective spell as our one.

 

A lot of members on these forumns have had to recently restrict any meaningfull potential to coastal areas over the next few days, it seems to me that the problem is going to be getting any storms that do develop to move far enouph inland for most places to see anything.

[Cakie]

Strange that theBBC forecast this morning didn't even mention and thunder for tomorrow in the South West. I do hope they are wrong

[Bobby]

More thunderstorms have broken out across SW Wales, heavy rain starting here now.

[TonyH]

Heavy showers glancing here with Sferics over carmarthenshire to the Se but not here.

[Panayiotis]

Torrential rain and thunder here in Cardiff!

[liamcymro]

whooo. Thunder! and anothet one in Cardiff!

[Jane Louise]

Just went across the fields to take my dog out and there's some lovely CB's and cloudscapes around. Fingers crossed for later on . I'll give them chance to build up ready to explode into storms for here later Lol

[andymusic]

couple of claps of thunder here now in Ponty

[Phantom2]

the storm has now moved on from Rhoose, one very bright flash of lightning and two rumbles of thunder and it was over !!

[conor123]

Ahhh thought i'd take a closer inspection after seeing some pretty interesting looking downpours approaching on the radar, looks like as usual the drizzles coming for Telford and any excitement north and south :lol:

[Panayiotis]

This is just what passed over my location!

[Convective]

So as this band finally arrives, there isn't one sferic anywhere within 120 miles of me!   Couldn't make it up!

[wimblettben]

No thunder here yet, just had a few heavy showers.

 

My main worry is that this thundery potential is being overplayed by some people.

Edited October 19, 2013 by wimblettben

[Jane Louise]

Lovely heavy downpours here.Waiting on the thunder and lightning now lol .Wind has really picked up.

[Jane Louise]

One flash of lightning and one rumble of thunder Yay

[Evening thunder]

Yes, quite a bit of lightning towards the Scilly Isles, at the moment. As you say, it is looking like one hell of a light show in places, this weekend.

 

EDIT: The lightning seems to have stopped over the W English Channel. But, still some activity near Brest, now.

 

 

There's no guarantee of course, but some places should see some thundery activity at least should be some intense downpours and chance of hail in places too. Probably not as strong as the storms in the channel that effected parts of S/E Devon at the end of September or the one that moved through Dorset/Somerset area early in October though. (though who knows..)

 

 

It's encouraging to see quite a bit of Tstorm activity in what's coming our way though:

 

 

http://www.sat24.com/ is also a good link to watch for general CB activity and lightning (if you have the lightning option checked)

 

I haven't seen CAPE of over 1000 j/kg and LI below -4 into the channel before from this type of maritime air mass showery flow, at least not often and not in October. 

 

(1400 j/kg and sub -5 LI near Brest on the previous frame too)

 

This along with decent activity out there now is why I think there might be a good chance for this time of year and for this set up of thundery activity especially around South and West coasts. Perhaps less inland admittedly though that's normal this time of year. As I'm home this weekend 3 miles from the coast of east Devon I'll be keeping an eye out tonight and have the camera battery charged just in case.