Convective / Storm Discussion - 4th October onwards 2013

[Mokidugway]

Heavy rain moving through south cumbria now possable thunder heard, very dark

[Chris.R]

can hear loads of sferics all around but no thunder, yet.

[Panayiotis]

CB to the north of me, responsible for the heavy rain shown on the radar. Seemed to have popped out of no where, with CAPE values high and the sun out I guess convection is the reason! I wonder if it will develop further as it moves NE..

 

EDIT: The answer looks to be no.

Edited October 19, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Mokidugway]

Well defined back edge, a couple of flashes and rumbles most interesting storm this year around here!

[MrSunshine]

Continuous Thunder/Lightning & rain here now for the last 30 minutes. Seem to be moving away though now, however a very impressive surprise! 

[IanR]

frequent blue CGs spitting out just west of here and thunder 

Edited October 19, 2013 by IanR

[Mapantz]

I guessing a f ew folk have had a nice surprise this afternoon?

 

I like the look of the showers coming in to the radar picture now, they're gonna look awesome later on, and tomorrow too.  Lot's to look forward to!

[conor123]

The shield strikes again, 5 spots of rain, no thunder, no hail, no lightning, no downpour but torrential just down the road :lol:

[Convective]

The shield strikes again, 5 spots of rain, no thunder, no hail, no lightning, no downpour but torrential just down the road

 

Know how you feel. Moderate rain here for the last hour, whereas just over the water all hell's breaking loose!

[I Cumbria Marra I]

Torrential rain for the last 5 minutes here, no thunder.

[Mokidugway]

It will be interesting to see what happens with all that stuff out in south west aproaches

[landslave]

1 clap thunder now rain.but no lighting......10 mins ago at Measham 

[A.J]

15 minutes of torrential rain here an hour or so ago as the trough passed through, no lightning here with the NW radar confirming the nearest strikes were around 25 miles to my north west towards Cirencester and Northleach.....even so, can still see the tough receding to my North/north east with new updrafts still developing.....ATD shows new sferics being detected near Oxford on the Southern flank of the trough

Edited October 19, 2013 by ajpoolshark

[Guest William Grimsley]

There's no guarantee of course, but some places should see some thundery activity at least should be some intense downpours and chance of hail in places too. Probably not as strong as the storms in the channel that effected parts of S/E Devon at the end of September or the one that moved through Dorset/Somerset area early in October though. (though who knows..)

 

 

It's encouraging to see quite a bit of Tstorm activity in what's coming our way though:

 

 

http://www.sat24.com/ is also a good link to watch for general CB activity and lightning (if you have the lightning option checked)

 

I haven't seen CAPE of over 1000 j/kg and LI below -4 into the channel before from this type of maritime air mass showery flow, at least not often and not in October. 

 

(1400 j/kg and sub -5 LI near Brest on the previous frame too)

 

This along with decent activity out there now is why I think there might be a good chance for this time of year and for this set up of thundery activity especially around South and West coasts. Perhaps less inland admittedly though that's normal this time of year. As I'm home this weekend 3 miles from the coast of east Devon I'll be keeping an eye out tonight and have the camera battery charged just in case.

Not everyone will see thunderstorms tonight as you say. But, at least someone will see something tonight and with both of us being in nearly the same location and near the coast, we have a good chance. Especially, with the already decent thunderstorms out in the Atlantic.

[The PIT]

Nothing will happen here once again. Quick glance of the radar and we're going through the gap.

[Jane Louise]

So pleased some of us have had something today. I am so happy I got just one flash of lightning and thunder. The lightning was like 3 strikes at once. Lots of CB's forming again here. Here's hoping we all get to see something tonight and in the early hours. Fingers crossed for us all.

[wimblettben]

So pleased some of us have had something today. I am so happy I got just one flash of lightning and thunder. The lightning was like 3 strikes at once. Lots of CB's forming again here. Here's hoping we all get to see something tonight and in the early hours. Fingers crossed for us all.

Its a shame you didn't see the storm to the southwest in the early hours of the 4th of October as that was producing a lightning flash every 10 seconds virtually.

 

There has been nothing here today thunder wise, though I think there is a higher chance for something overnight.

[Panayiotis]

Nice to see that convection is still occurring even after sunset...

Its been a great day for most, and its nice that a forecast which I made yesterday was correct for today hopefully tonight and tomorrow also delivers!

Edited October 19, 2013 by Panayiotis

[IanR]

Best storm I have seen this year, there were flashes every 15 seconds, sometimes more frequent,  was not direct overhead though,  thunder was not loud ,   just a constant distant growling , and nice vivid purple blue forks and sheets

 

the wigan storm shield must be down for maintenance

[Eye to the sky]

Lightning in Denby,with heavy rain!!

[The PIT]

I suspect tomorrow will be storm to the north of us storm to the west of us storm to east of us storm to south of us. Nothing here but odd light shower. Anybody taking a bet?

[Bobby]

I suspect tomorrow will be storm to the north of us storm to the west of us storm to east of us storm to south of us. Nothing here but odd light shower. Anybody taking a bet?

 

Will happen here too. A mighty stormshield we have.

[Supacell]

The odd flash observed to the south of Nottingham towards West Bridgford direction.

Edited October 19, 2013 by Supacell

[MrSunshine]

Best storm I have seen this year, there were flashes every 15 seconds, sometimes more frequent,  was not direct overhead though,  thunder was not loud ,   just a constant distant growling , and nice vivid purple blue forks and sheets

 

the wigan storm shield must be down for maintenance

 

Do you think we'll see anything tonight Ian?

[Mapantz]

Looking interesting for the SE tomorrow morning, potential for thunderstorms is pretty good. A lot of warning maps have been sticking with Western and Southern coasts, i don't think it that's quite correct, as today has proved.