Convective / Storm Discussion - 4th October onwards 2013

[Jane Louise]

Another update for tonight from the TORRO guys... Well done to all the forecasters today it seems to be panning out. Good luck again guys.

I can't get the link up because my FF address bar has gone missing lol.

 

TORNADO WATCH

 

Valid from/until: 17:15- 09:00GMT on Saturday 19th/Sunday 20th October 2013 for the following regions

 

Central and S England

Wales

CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION

Eire

Southern N Ireland

THREATS

Tornadoes; wind gusts to 60mph; hail 30-40mm diamter; CG lightning

DISCUSSION

Slow-moving upper and surface low to the west of the British Isles will maintain a deeply unstable rPm airmass. Vorticity maxima rotating around this low are generating more coherant areas of shower/thunderstorm acivity. This activity is embedded with in a flow regime characterised by shear marginally supportive of supercell structures. Recent radar returns depict showers and thunderstorms in the SW approaches which are indicative of organised updraughts.

A more pronounced vort max should move NE across the WATCH area overnight, with showers and thunderstorms becoming widespread, especially across the southern half of the area. The northern zone of risk is rather uncertain, and the box may be too far north. Within the WATCH there is a risk of tornadoes, and if rotating updraughts are present, some reasonably large hail is possible, although this may be modulated somewhat by the high waterloading of updraughts, given the moist airmass.

Across the DISCUSSION area (Eire/N Ireland) shear is lower, but strongly veering low-level wind profiles are suggestive of isolated tornadoes with stronger updraughts.
 

http://www.torro.org.uk/site/forecast.php

 

Link done now mananged to work it out

 

Nor can I ever get the map up either lol

Edited October 19, 2013 by Jane Louise

[Cloud 10]

That band has held together remarkably well as it has journeyed towards the North East,still hope for the odd rumble and flash.

 

[Summer Sun]

Torrential rain, thunder and lightening over darlington currently

[IanR]

Do you think we'll see anything tonight Ian? 

if  two storms hit wigan area in 24 hours it will be a rare event , might see some distant flashes late tonight perhaps, BBC did mention another band of showers moving up the midlands overnight towards here , so who knows.

[Jane Louise]

It's looking good!

 

http://meteocentre.com/lightning/map_sfuk.php?date=0〈=en&size=standard&map=Europe&data=zeus&type=strikes

[Evening thunder]

Looking interesting for the SE tomorrow morning, potential for thunderstorms is pretty good. A lot of warning maps have been sticking with Western and Southern coasts, i don't think it that's quite correct, as today has proved.

 

Yes MetO and BBC, and to an extent the GFS precip maps do seem to agree with that. 

 

although surely this can produce something for those further west along the coast? (he says hopefully)

[Cloud 10]

A flash and a rumble as this band has passed over. 

[Supacell]

I have to admit the temptation to drive towards the S Coast is increasing.

[Thundery wintry showers]

I wasn't expecting the thunder and lightning to keep going as the band passed over this part of North Yorkshire, but I managed to get these:

 

[Convective]

Maybe overnight?

 

[Supacell]

Great pics there TWS and just shows the land is not killing these storms off which is a good sign.

Looking at what charts i can get i am thinking areas bordering the Bristol Channel and Severn Estuary look very good too during tonight.

[Mapantz]

I have to admit the temptation to drive towards the S Coast is increasing.

 

Which county do you go for? lol - I would say, avoid Dorset but then again, the world of quantum mechanics is involved now, it could be a good bet. :lol:

 

Joking aside, the Sussexes? Kent? or further West, Devon and Cornwall?

[Supacell]

Which county do you go for? lol - I would say, avoid Dorset but then again, the world of quantum mechanics is involved now, it could be a good bet. :lol:Joking aside, the Sussexes? Kent? or further West, Devon and Cornwall?

If i do go that far then more likely the west, maybe Dorset as that does actually look a good bet However, i am liking South Wales, Bristol, SW Mids too and that would be closer.

[VillagePlank]

I have to admit the temptation to drive towards the S Coast is increasing.

 

SE looks interesting, tomorrow

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78128-south-east-east-anglia-regional-weather-discussion-111013/?p=2809347

 

Marginal chance of tornadoes: SRH * CAPE is just below the minimum threshold, so there could well be isolated spouts appearing particularly in or near the E Sussex, W Sussex, and Hampshire coast when considering local effects. 1km shear suggests, in any case, it is more likely that you'll see one towards Hampshire than E Sussex.

[TheToastPeople]

Was surprised to see some activity on the radar when i finished work today! went for a little drive and saw a pretty impressive cell with a few sparks of lightning, but it wasn't up to much as it was decaying to quickly as it reached my town

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

If i do go that far then more likely the west, maybe Dorset as that does actually look a good bet However, i am liking South Wales, Bristol, SW Mids too and that would be closer.

I really need to get out in the old motor next season. Hope next year delivers more than this year. Fingers crossed bud!This is definitely the best time of the year for coastal residents for storms. As for me, diurnal heating is basically non existent now, so no point in me banking on a real stormfest. Good luck to them on the S Coast and southwestern areas, hope you get some corkers. Edited October 19, 2013 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[Costa Del Fal]

Few flashes of lightning seen over Falmouth Bay recently. Heavy downpour passed through.

[Mark Neal.]

Heavy downpours in Oxfordshire late afternoon with some big Cumulonimbus clouds around. Intense rainfall at times. 

[I Cumbria Marra I]

please please please just ONE thunderstorm.....please.

[Panayiotis]

Radar doesn't look all that inspiring tbh, but the GFS has the signal for the current rain and it shows how things just spark up out of nowhere in the early hours, the NAE is also similar, so its a waiting game for now...

Edited October 19, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Convective]

Radar doesn't look all that inspiring tbh, but the GFS has the signal for the current rain and it shows how things just spark up out of nowhere in the early hours, the NAE is also similar, so its a waiting game for now...

 

Who knows. It's one of them ''on the fence, make or break'' situations! Still plenty of chance out there this overnight period and all day tomorrow! Hope we all get to see something!

[Raidan]

If you come to Bristol Supercell pop in and I'll make you a cuppa lol

[AderynCoch]

Had a spell of very heavy rain late this afternoon but I noticed no thunder or lightning despite other members not far away reporting it. Funny how I seem to get thunderstorms when I least expect them (like on Wednesday night) but not when I actually do.

 

Is Round Two still on later tonight?

[Chris.R]

same here, heavy rain for a time today but no thunder heard with it, although I could hear lots of close sferics all around.

[Jane Louise]

And a  coffee here in Cheltenham Lol (only joking) Yes, hopefully round 2 tonight and in the early hours. I hope it wakes me up Lol.  It looks to be a stormy week next week, so plenty to look forward to.