November forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. competition

[Summer Sun]

6.8c to the 23rd

 

0.2c below the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday was 2.5C. Min today is 0.9C, while maxima look like reaching about 7C, so a drop to 6.6 or 6.7C is likely tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS has the CET at

6.5C to the 25th (2.8]

6.3C to the 26th (2.4)

6.3C to the 27th (5.7)

6.3C to the 28th (7.1)

6.4C to the 29th (6.7)

6.3C to the 30th (5.9)

[SomeLikeItHot]

6.7 to the 24th   -0.3 anomaly (61-90)    -0.8 anomaly (81-10)Min today of 2.3 and max likely around 6.0 should see it fall to 6.6.Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give25th 6.6 (4.2)26th 6.4 (3.3)27th 6.4 (5.5)28th 6.4 (7.2)29th 6.4 (7.0)30th 6.4 (5.0)  -0.2 (61-90)   -0.7 (81-10)With a couple of warmer days at the end of month looks likely we will finish just slightly below 61-90 average before corrections. After corrections anything 5.9-6.5 seems possible.

[damianslaw]

Quite likely to see another below average CET month - albeit only slightly below the 61-90 mean, but comfortably below the 81-00 mean. Am I right to say this would be the sixth month this year to come in below the CET 61-90 value? Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May? Not sure how June panned out and Sept wasn't far off average. If it were not for the very warm July and very mild October - 2013 would be looking like a preety cold year similiar to 2010.

 

Whilst this November looks like ending up a very benign affair with little in the way of heavy rain, strong winds, wintry weather, it has been a very pleasant seasonal one, could have done with a bit more fog, but we've had a number of decent frosts now and some quite cold days. I've known far worse Novembers, 2009 being a case in point, far far far worse if you hate the rain and mild.

[Don]

Quite likely to see another below average CET month - albeit only slightly below the 61-90 mean, but comfortably below the 81-00 mean. Am I right to say this would be the sixth month this year to come in below the CET 61-90 value? Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May? Not sure how June panned out and Sept wasn't far off average. If it were not for the very warm July and very mild October - 2013 would be looking like a preety cold year similiar to 2010.

 

Whilst this November looks like ending up a very benign affair with little in the way of heavy rain, strong winds, wintry weather, it has been a very pleasant seasonal one, could have done with a bit more fog, but we've had a number of decent frosts now and some quite cold days. I've known far worse Novembers, 2009 being a case in point, far far far worse if you hate the rain and mild.

 

It will be the 7th below average month, you forgot June (13.6C -0.6).  This November has been rather boring down here really with not much frost.  However, it hasn't been too wet with some chilly days.

 

I agree that November 2009 was a stinker, but look what followed!  Hopefully December too will come in below average making 8 below average months this year.  Could you imagine the prospect of that 10 years ago?!

[March Blizzard]

2010 had 8 below average months, too.

[stewfox]

Quite likely to see another below average CET month - albeit only slightly below the 61-90 mean, but comfortably below the 81-00 mean. Am I right to say this would be the sixth month this year to come in below the CET 61-90 value? Jan, Feb, Mar, Apr, May? Not sure how June panned out and Sept wasn't far off average. If it were not for the very warm July and very mild October - 2013 would be looking like a preety cold year similiar to 2010.

 

 

The figures are here, June was -0.6c below average, Sept 0.1c above

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html

[Don]

2010 had 8 below average months, too.

 

I think it was 7 below the 61-90 average.  January, February, May, August, October, November and December?

[SomeLikeItHot]

I think it was 7 below the 61-90 average.  January, February, May, August, October, November and December?

Yes, correct figures are here.

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_info_mean2010.html

 

If this December ends up below 2013 would have had more below average months than 2010. (presuming November finished below that is!)

Edited November 26, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[March Blizzard]

I think it was 7 below the 61-90 average.  January, February, May, August, October, November and December?

I stand corrected! I must have been going off a later set of averages.

[Weather-history]

I posted this before

I think the turning point came in March 2008, when northerly blocking started to become prevalent than it had been for a long time.

17 below 1971-2000 average months before March 2008 in 7 years but 37 in less than 6 years from March 2008

Months below the 1971-2000 average since January 2001

Jun 2013: 13.6 (-0.5)

May 2013: 10.4 (-0.9)

Apr 2013: 7.5 (-0.6)

Mar 2013: 2.7 (-3.6)

Feb 2013: 3.2 (-1.0)

Jan 2013: 3.5 (-0.7)

Dec 2012: 4.8 (-0.3)

Nov 2012: 6.8 (-0.1)

Oct 2012: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2012: 13.0 (-0.6)

Jul 2012: 15.5 (-1.0)

Jun 2012: 13.5 (-0.6)

Apr 2012: 7.2 (-0.9)

Feb 2012: 3.8 (-0.4)

Aug 2011: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2011: 15.2 (-1.3)

June 2011: 13.8 (-0.3)

Jan 2011: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2010: -0.7 (-5.8]

Nov 2010: 5.2 (-1.7)

Oct 2010: 10.3 (-0.1)

Aug 2010: 15.3 (-0.9)

May 2010: 10.7 (-0.6)

Mar 2010: 6.1 (-0.2)

Feb 2010: 2.8 (-1.4)

Jan 2010: 1.4 (-2.8]

Dec 2009: 3.1 (-2.0)

Jul 2009: 16.1 (-0.4)

Feb 2009: 4.1 [-0.1]

Jan 2009: 3.0 [-1.2]

Dec 2008: 3.5 (-1.6)

Oct 2008: 9.7 (-0.7)

Sep 2008: 13.5 (-0.2)

Jul 2008: 16.2 (-0.3)

Jun 2008: 13.9 (-0.2)

Apr 2008: 7.9 (-0.2)

Mar 2008: 6.1 (-0.2)

------------------------------------ a turning point

Dec 2007: 4.9 (-0.2)

Aug 2007: 15.4 (-0.8]

July 2007: 15.2 (-1.3)

Aug 2006: 16.1 (-0.1)

Mar 2006: 4.9 (-1.4)

Feb 2006: 3.7 (-0.5)

Dec 2005: 4.4 (-0.7)

Nov 2005: 6.2 (-0.7)

July 2004: 15.8 (-0.7)

Dec 2003: 4.8 (-0.3)

Oct 2003: 9.2 (-1.2)

Feb 2003: 3.9 (-0.3)

Oct 2002: 10.1 (-0.3)

Jul 2002: 16.0 (-0.5)

Dec 2001: 3.6 (-1.5)

Sep 2001: 13.4 (-0.3)

Apr 2001: 7.7 (-0.4)

Mar 2001: 5.2 (-1.1)

Jan 2001: 3.2 (-1.0)

Edited November 26, 2013 by Weather-history

[SomeLikeItHot]

6.6 to the 25th -0.3 anomaly (61-90)   -0.8  anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of -0.2 and max likely around 6.5 should see it fall to 6.4.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days gives

26th 6.4 (3.3)  

27th 6.4   (6.3)

28th 6.5 (7.9)  

29th 6.5   (7.3)

30th    6.4 (4.5)   -0.1 (61-90) -0.7 (81-10)

 

So again  a couple of warmer days at the end of month looks like it will stop it falling more than slightly below 61-90 average before corrections. After corrections anything 6.0-6.5 seems possible.  

 

Edited November 26, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[SomeLikeItHot]

Based on the above calculations this looks to be the people with some realistic chance. Bold is where I think the most likely result is, but MarkN, and March Blizzard being slightly better placed due to owning 6.2 also.  6.6 ... BARRY, BARRY95 ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1961-1990 ----6.5 ... ISOLATED FROST, DUNCAN McALISTER ... ... ... ... ---- mean of 1901-2000 ----6.4 ... CREWECOLD6.3 ... MARK N, MARCH BLIZZARD6.2 ...6.1 ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ---- mean of all years 1659-2012 ----6.0 ... SIMSHADY, SNOWM4N 5.9 ... SCEPTICAL INQUIRER, BOBD29 ... ... ---- mean of 1801-1900 ----

[damianslaw]

November 2013 will go down as one of the colder Novembers of the last 20 years. 2010 and 2005 colder, not sure about 96 and 98 probably quite similiar to this month.

 

I do think this November has surprised many coming on the back of October.

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 26th

 

-0.3c below the 61-90 average

[summer blizzard]

if it comes in at 6.4C, I would say 2010, 2005, 1998, 1996 and 1993 were colder in the last 20 years.

 

Corrections will occur afterward so it's likely going to end up colder than 2005 (though the second half of 2005 was the coldest since 1993).

 

To the 23rd Phillip Eden is running 0.4C lower than Hadley.

Edited November 27, 2013 by summer blizzard

[SomeLikeItHot]

6.5c to the 26th

 

-0.3c below the 61-90 average

-0.9  anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of 2.7 and max likely around 9.5 should see stay on 6.5 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days

27th 6.5   (6.1)

28th 6.5 (7.7)  

29th 6.5   (7.3)

30th    6.5 (5.5)   0.0 (61-90) -0.6 (81-10)

 

So that seems like the last of the falls, and a slightly warmer correction nudges it to average at the end of the month (and yesterday’s max was a bit higher than I thought).

 

Still likely to end up below average after corrections.

[SomeLikeItHot]

6.5 to the 27th   -0.3 anomaly (61-90)   -0.9  anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of 6.1 and max likely around 10 should see stay on 6.5 tomorrow.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days

28th 6.6 (8.1)  

29th 6.6   (7.7)

30th    6.6 (7.3)   +0.1 (61-90) -0.5 (81-10)

 

Again a higher Max than I had estimated (10.9 vs 9.5) and a slight increase in forecast temps puts it at 6.6 + 0.1 above average.  A chance the month will end at rather than below average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

6.6C to the 28th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

 

Yesterday was 8.5C. Minimum today is 6.6C, while maxima look like reaching the high 9s (mean around 8.2), so remaining on 6.6C on tomorrows update.

The 06z GFS op run has the final day at about 5.0C, so likely to remain on 6.6C. After corrections, anything from 6.1 to 6.5C is possible it seems.

[SomeLikeItHot]

6.6C to the 28th

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/cet_mean_est_2013

 

Yesterday was 8.5C. Minimum today is 6.6C, while maxima look like reaching the high 9s (mean around 8.2), so remaining on 6.6C on tomorrows update.

The 06z GFS op run has the final day at about 5.0C, so likely to remain on 6.6C. After corrections, anything from 6.1 to 6.5C is possible it seems.

 

I agree 6.6 before corrections seems pretty much gaurrenteed at this point, so it all comes down to corrections to see  where it ends up.

[Don]

I agree 6.6 before corrections seems pretty much gaurrenteed at this point, so it all comes down to corrections to see  where it ends up.

 

Pretty close to the 61-90 average after all.

[Roger J Smith]

I agree there was a turning point, perhaps that rainstorm in June 2007 was really the great divide between the 20-Year Warm Spell and whatever this turns out to be. Ever since that event, warm/dry signals have been unusual.

[Scorcher]

November 2013 will go down as one of the colder Novembers of the last 20 years. 2010 and 2005 colder, not sure about 96 and 98 probably quite similiar to this month.

 

I do think this November has surprised many coming on the back of October.

 

Not sure about this, it's going to be extremely close to the 61-90 average so nothing to write home about, and there certainly hasn't been much memorable cold in the month. It really hasn't seemed all that cold and I've only had to scrape my car windscreen twice in the entire month. There haven't been too many double figure maxes by day which may have influenced the CET more than any very cold temperatures.

Edited November 29, 2013 by Scorcher

[cheese]

Church Fenton so far vs 81-00 averages:

 

Mean max 9.6C (-0.3C)

Mean min 2.5C (-1.0C)

Air frosts: 9 (+3.4 days)

Sunshine: 80.2 hours (114.5%)

 

Nothing remarkable, but still a bit chilly with a fair few air frosts. Also a sunny month - might end up sunnier than October if tomorrow is sunny.

Edited November 29, 2013 by cheese

[damianslaw]

Not sure about this, it's going to be extremely close to the 61-90 average so nothing to write home about, and there certainly hasn't been much memorable cold in the month. It really hasn't seemed all that cold and I've only had to scrape my car windscreen twice in the entire month. There haven't been too many double figure maxes by day which may have influenced the CET more than any very cold temperatures.

 

Yes but the fact is it will end up one of the colder Novembers of the last 20 years, given many have been mild. Only 2010, 2005, 1996 and 1998 colder and the last three not by very much.

 

Compared to the likes of Nov 94, 97, 00, 07, 09 and 11 - a positively cold month.