November forecasts -- 2013 C.E.T. competition

[Don]

What were most of you thinking? Even the beginning of the month didn't look that mild as I posted.

I know! I was partly influenced by the very mild October, the Met Office's strong signal for a mild November and my own hunch. However, I said when I made my guess that I hoped it would end up looking silly and at the moment it looks like it's heading that way!

[Weather-history]

and March (most went high and were nowhere near).

That was a really remarkable month. Even if you went off GFS 2m ensembles on 28th February, they wouldn't haven't given you a clue. The CET was near 5.0c even by the 9th. To end up below 3.0C from that stage in a month that gets warmer climatically as it progresses, is very exceptional. Edited November 14, 2013 by Weather-history

[damianslaw]

I'd like to know what the current Scotland mean is? A notably cold month could well be on the cards for Scotland. The last 14 days have been preety chilly over Scotland and the far north of England (Cumbria, NE England).

[AderynCoch]

I wonder how much influence the month when the guess is made has on the guess? Does a very mild month sway the majority of the guesses towards the mild side ie did the very mild October make people tend towards a mild November?

It may have been a factor, but my guess (8.3) was based on a mild outlook which had considerable consensus. I knew there was always a chance of it being colder later on in the month, but even in the short term it was nowhere near as mild as expected (on the colder side of average if anything).

 

Anyway, I'm happy to be as wrong as can be. I hate mild Novembers.

[BornFromTheVoid]

The biggest October to November CET drop, 8.5C, occurred in 1807, with a drop from 11.4C to 2.9C.

To make the top 10 largest drops, a November CET of 5.4C or lower is required (6.1C or lower for the top 20).

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.6 to the 14th   -0.0 anomaly (61-90)    -0.6 anomaly (81-10)Min today of 1.8 and max likely around 9.5 should see a fall to 7.5.Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give15th   7.5 (5.65)16th 7.5   (6.6)17th   7.5   (7.8 )18th   7.5  (7.7)  +0.2 (61-90)    -0.5 (81-10)19th   7.3  (3.6)20th   6.9  (0.5)21st   6.7   (1.5)22nd  6.5  (2.3)23rd   6.4   (3.5)24th 6.2  (3.8 )25th   6.1    (3.5)    -0.8 (61-90)  -1.3 (81-10)…30th   5.7   -0.8 (61-90) -1.4 (81-10)

[SomeLikeItHot]

The biggest October to November CET drop, 8.5C, occurred in 1807, with a drop from 11.4C to 2.9C.

To make the top 10 largest drops, a November CET of 5.4C or lower is required (6.1C or lower for the top 20).

 

Thanks, Was going to dig this out myself.

 

At this point it looks like we are some chance of a top 10 drop, and very likely for a top 20

[BornFromTheVoid]

Agree with dropping back to 7.5C tomorrow.

 

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

7.5C to the 16th (7.6)

7.5C to the 17th (7.1)

7.4C to the 18th (6.8]

7.2C to the 19th (3.1)

6.9C to the 20th (0.5)

6.7C to the 21st (2.4)

6.5C to the 22nd (4.0)

 

 

Could have the first day more than 1 standard deviation below the daily mean since September soon. Despite a significant cold spell coming up, no record low daily mean temps look under threat. Would probably need a good covering of snow first.

Edited November 15, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid

[SomeLikeItHot]

 

 

Looks like remaining below the 81-10 rolling mean, while roughly sticking with the 61-90 rolling mean.

 

 

 

The 6.5 we would reach on the 22nd (should it occur) will be -0.5 below the 61-90 rolling mean.

Edited November 15, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[BornFromTheVoid]

The 6.5 we would reach on the 22nd (should it occur) will be -0.5 below the 61-90 rolling mean.

 

You're right, I need to label my rows better!

[Summer Sun]

7.5c to the 15th

 

Bang on average

[Summer Sun]

7.5c to the 16th

 

0.1c above average

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.5 to the 17th +0.02 anomaly (61-90)   -0.5  anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of 1.8 and max likely around 9.0 should see it remain 7.5.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give

 

18th  7.5 (8.1)   +0.2 (61-90)   -0.4 (81-10)

19th  7.3 (3.25)

20th  7.1 (3.8 )

21st 7.0 (5.0)

22nd  6.9 (4.6)

23rd 6.8 (3.5)

24th 6.6 (4.0)  

25th    6.5 (4.0)    -0.4 (61-90) -0.9 (81-10)

…

30th    6.1 -0.5 (61-90) -1.40 (81-10)

 

So warmer than it was prior to the weekend, due mostly to this coming week not being quite as cold as previously. Longer term the slightly below average trend continues. A below average (61-90) month is looking the most likely outcome, with a below 81-10 average month almost certain.

Edited November 18, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[feb1991blizzard]

Im going to be a degree out possibly even 2c

[Summer Sun]

7.5c to the 18th

 

0.2c above average

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.5c to the 18th

 

0.2c above average [Edit: (61-90)]

-0.4 below 81-10 average.

 

Min today of 1.8 and max likely around 9.0 should see it remain 7.5.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 6Z ensemble mean after that give

 

19th  7.3 (3.3)

20th  7.1 (3.5 )

21st 7.0 (4.6)

22nd  6.9 (4.2)

23rd 6.7 (3.8 )

24th 6.5 (2.5)  

25th    6.4 (2.5)      -0.5 (61-90) -1.0 (81-10)

…

30th    5.9 -0.7 (61-90) -1.3 (81-10)

 

Slightly colder in the longer term (in November that is). I missed the 0Z ensembles today and have used the 6Z instead.

Edited November 19, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.3 to the 19th +0.1 anomaly (61-90)   -0.4  anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of -0.5 (first negative since April) and max likely around 7.5 should see it fall to 7.1.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give

 

20th  7.1  (3.5)

21st 7.0 (5.1)

22nd  6.9 (4.2)

23rd 6.8 (3.6)

24th 6.6 (3.0)  

25th    6.5 (3.0)    -0.4 (61-90) -1.0 (81-10)

26th 6.3 (2.5)  

27th    6.2 (2.8 )

28th 6.1 (2.5)  

29th    6.0 (2.8 )

30th    5.9 (2.8 )   -0.7 (61-90) -1.3 (81-10)

 

So while the next few days are now slightly warmer than they were a few days ago, the GFS ensembles are now saying frosty mornings at the end of month which is pushing that part down.

Edited November 20, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[reef]

The irony is that if we finished on 5.9C we'd be looking at the joint 4th coldest November in the last 43 years.

 

It would also make the Autumn as a whole essentially average too.

 

I don't think many would have thought that was likely after October!

[damianslaw]

A large difference between Oct and Nov CET now looks likely. A very good chance of a below average Nov as well - below the 61-90 average and appreciably below the 81-10 average.

 

The way this month is panning out I suspect is surprising many.

[Summer Sun]

7.1c to the 20th

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

Edited November 21, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SomeLikeItHot]

7.1c to the 20th

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

 -0.6  anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of 3.6 and max likely around 8.0 should see remain on  7.1.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give

 

21st 7.1 (5.9)

22nd  7.0 (4.3)

23rd 6.8 (2.8 )

24th 6.6 (3.8 )  

25th    6.5 (3.9)   -0.4 (61-90) -0.9 (81-10)

26th 6.3 (2.8 )  

27th    6.3 (5.0)

28th 6.3 (5.0)  

29th    6.3 (5.5)

30th    6.2 (4.0)   -0.4 (61-90) -1.0 (81-10)

 

 

So a bit warmer again today as the last 4-5 days go from below to near average days.  Seems the likely range is  5.8-6.8 before corrections.

Edited November 21, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Summer Sun]

And we remain on 7.1c to the 21st

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

Edited November 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[SomeLikeItHot]

And we remain on 7.1c to the 21st

 

Bang on the 61 to 90 average

 

 -0.6  anomaly (81-10)

 

Min today of 2.2 and max likely around 7.0 should see it fall to 7.0.

 

Met office forecasts for 5 days and GFS 0Z ensemble mean after that give

22nd  7.0 (4.6)

23rd 6.8 (3.3)

24th 6.7 (3.9)  

25th    6.6 (4.2)   -0.3 (61-90) -0.8 (81-10)

26th 6.5 (4.2 )  

27th    6.5 (7.8 )

28th 6.5 (6.8 )  

29th    6.5 (6.0)

30th    6.5 (5.5)   -0.1 (61-90) -0.6 (81-10)

 

So warm up, or at least fail to cool down over the last few days of the month see the value head more towards the 61-90 average. Most likely post corrections it will still be below but its looking closer than it did a few days ago.

Edited November 22, 2013 by SomeLikeItHot

[Summer Sun]

7.0c to the 22nd

 

-0.1 below the 61 to 90 average

[BornFromTheVoid]

Min today of -1.1C (lowest of the Autumn so far) and maxima reaching the mid 5s (mean around 2.2C), we should see a drop to 6.7 or 6.8C on tomorrows update.

After that, the 06z GFS op run has the CET at

 

6.6C to the 24th (4.1)

6.5C to the 25th (2.6)

6.4C to the 26th (3.0)

6.3C to the 27th (4.9)

6.3C to the 28th (6.9)

6.3C to the 29th (7.1)

6.4C to the 30th (7.0)

 

Odds now in favour of finishing below the 61-90 average.

 

Surprisingly, we're still yet to record a single significantly cold day this month (more than 1 standard deviation below normal). Today does look like the best chance to achieve this, but would require maxima reaching no higher than the low 5s.

 

Edited November 23, 2013 by BornFromTheVoid