Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013

[Mokidugway]

Clear skies all round today. What was exceptional though, is that the visibility was that clear that I could make out cells as far as Manchester and the Wirral from Cambridgeshire!! That is some distance.

could see the same cells from walney island in cumbria !. Edited November 4, 2013 by Mokidugway

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

could see the same cells from walney island in cumbria !.

Madness haha! Almost top to tail of the Country they were visible from then! I bet with a push I may have been able to make them out from perhaps Suffolk too!! 

[Mokidugway]

Madness haha! Almost top to tail of the Country they were visible from then! I bet with a push I may have been able to make them out from perhaps Suffolk too!!

possably visable as far north as galloway peninsula !!.

[IanR]

I was under one of those cells at 4.00pm, torrential rain and hail, no thunder though

Saturday I witnessed some spectacular lightning which moved north east of here to Bolton and did this, one of three potent storms that have happened in the last fortnight in this locality 

 

this is what you fear when the storm is overhead

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-24802263

Edited November 4, 2013 by IanR

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

I was under one of those cells at 4.00pm, torrential rain and hail, no thunder though

Saturday I witnessed some spectacular lightning which moved north east of here to Bolton and did this, one of three potent storms that have happened in the last fortnight in this locality 

 

 

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-manchester-24802263

Better than anything throughout 2013 by the sounds of it! It really was a dreadful convective season, despite high temps.

[alexisj9]

Better than anything throughout 2013 by the sounds of it! It really was a dreadful convective season, despite high temps.

Had some good storms down here this year thanks to France. The one on the 22 of July was the best one. Shorted our electricity out 5 or 6 times, I could see the lightening hitting the down out of my window.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Had some good storms down here this year thanks to France. The one on the 22 of July was the best one. Shorted our electricity out 5 or 6 times, I could see the lightening hitting the down out of my window.

Yeah, we had it for 7 hours that same night. Was insane and so intense. 

Remember a huge line of storms and sferics from Kent to Lincolnshire/Leicestershire.

[Coast]

Scotland and NI maybe in for something later on Thursday according to GFS:

 

 

 

Maybe some small activity in West Wales Friday lunchtime?

 

 

The Met Office are retaining the idea from yesterday that there will be an isolated thunderstorm over West Sussex on Friday:

 

 

[Coast]

A 'blip' of potential convective possibilities for Friday through to Sunday showing on the GFS free atmosphere charts in what goes on to be a quieter period:

 

 

 

 

 NMM TT index for Saturday is very interesting as a guide:

 

 

Perhaps this is why?

 

[Coast]

Activity for Scotland showing up again on the overnight GFS for Friday onwards through the North West of Scotland and NI:

 

 

 

Met O still showing that odd isolated storm potential for West Sussex on Friday?

 

[Coast]

Something this afternoon in Western Scotland maybe?

 

 

ESTOFEX going with it:

 

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 07 Nov 2013 06:00 to Fri 08 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Wed 06 Nov 2013 22:20

Forecaster: GATZEN

SYNOPSIS / DISCUSSION

 

A very sharp but intense short-wave trough will move across eastern Europe on Thursday. Strong DCVA will overspread this area and a relative well-mixed air mass is expected near the rough axis. Latest models indicate that rich low-level moisture ahead of the trough will be replaced b drier air masses from the west. Remaining moisture across the Ukraine may be sufficient to allow for weak CAPE in the noon and afternoon hours, so that isolated showers or thunderstorms are not ruled out near the troughs base. However, the likelihood and coverage of storms is too low for a thunder line. 

 

The potential of CAPE is also expected over regions where the polar air masses overspread the warm sea surface. Most storms will form in weak vertical wind shear. However, increased low-level vertical wind shear near the coasts may support some mesocyclones that may produce a tornado. Best overlap of weak CAPE and strong low-level vertical wind shear is forecast over the central British Isles and the south-western coasts of Norway, but the threat is too marginal for a level 1 at this time.

 

 

 

[Coast]

NMM TT index is hot for something in the next couple of hours, but the CAPE charts are more conducive to possibilities tonight:

 

 

 

 

 

[Mapantz]

I see on the precip charts there's the potential for some showers in the morning across southern areas .. no idea if there's any other potential as i've got to go out, late already!

[Coast]

I see on the precip charts there's the potential for some showers in the morning across southern areas .. no idea if there's any other potential as i've got to go out, late already!

 

Quite intense, especially late afternoon into Saturday:

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

Quite intense, especially late afternoon into Saturday:

 

I hope that chart is correct. The rain between 09/11/2013 06:00 and 09/11/2013 09:00 is bang on for, here.

[ZONE 51]

Heavy showers affecting W-Scotland, interesting feature into N Ireland with heavy intense line of rain(now). Heavy possibly thunders showers into SW England and Wales-especially west Wales by morning with 10mm or more indicated. not much ppn showing for SE on the models I looked at up to morning, what does NMM show for South? I'm on a small phone let me know if I got it correct! Can zoom in to high res images but hard work on phone. Looking at Friday afternoon an interesting feature of rain could be thundery although most instability is over the Channel up to night time (negative LI yellow) there could be rumbles of thunder possibly actual tstorms over Channel maybe inland too within the this feature this developing to the SW moving in Central South into late afternoon and into SE/EA by evening that could be thundery.

Edited November 7, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Coast]

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Fri 08 Nov 2013 06:00 to Sat 09 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 07 Nov 2013 22:25

Forecaster: TUSCHY

SYNOPSIS

 

The European pattern is characterized by a gradually deepening and rapidly approaching large-scale trough from the E-Atlantic and strong ridging over the central Mediterranean towards the Black Sea.

 

In the lower to mid troposphere, an extensive baroclinic zone runs from the N-Bay of Biscay to the Baltic Sea. Interaction of a mid-layer impulse with that frontal zone results in cyclogenesis, entering the English Channel around noon and approaching Benelux until midnight. Besides, pressure also drops over S-France and more significantly over N-Italy beyond 00Z as lee-cyclogenesis will be underway.

 

DISCUSSION

 

...Rest of the lightning areas ...

 

Marine convection with 850 hPa flow aob 15 m/s should result in gusty winds and some sleet (H85 below 0°C). Nothing severe is anticipated.

 

 

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

 

 

 

Looking good. Already some thundery rain crossed to the SE about 50 minutes ago. It was just heavy rain, here.

[Robbie Garrett]

Just had Thunder here.

[Bogman]

Yep, and Potters Bar.

[Buzzard]

and London!!

[PiggiePalace]

Two big flash/bangs in quick succession, somewhere very close to East Grinstead

[tcc]

Just saw some lightning to my east, probably just south of East Grinstead (ish)

 

EDIT:   SNAP!

Edited November 8, 2013 by tcc

[Captain Shortwave]

Big boom here when I got into the house, yikes wasn't expecting this.

More black clouds on the horizon, maybe some more to come

Edited November 8, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[wimblettben]

Just heard a few rumbles out my window so checked to make shure and I saw a flash. It is very occassional though.

 

It sounded like it came from my Northwest, there have already been a load of showers coming through here this evening so don't know if I will get a direct storm or not.

 

 

Edit: Seems to have stopped now!

Edited November 8, 2013 by wimblettben