Convective / Storm Discussion - 22nd October onwards 2013

[The PIT]

@TP, SLEET in mid Autumn now that's pushing it a bit!... 

Not really had it in September before. Had lying Snow in November as well. Temps were low enough as well at the time.

[gottolovethisweather]

Yes,looks like a very potent cell.

 

hiradarzoomv42.png

 

Many Thanks Cloud10 and Andy for the radar grabs. I have a question however, how did you both get to produce them as I thought the usual NW radar only went back a couple of hours.

[A.J]

Many Thanks Cloud10 and Andy for the radar grabs. I have a question however, how did you both get to produce them as I thought the usual NW radar only went back a couple of hours.

both V4 & V6 go back 24 hours Tony

[gottolovethisweather]

both V4 & V6 go back 24 hours Tony

 

Thanks AJ. I got off my I a rse and did a bit of searching but still can't get the zoomed function on the radar archive link, which is where I suppose these grabs came from. Such a shame the location maps go blank. Nevertheless a most useful function that I wasn't even aware of.

Edited November 10, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Cloud 10]

Thanks AJ. I got off my I a rse and did a bit of searching but still can't get the zoomed function on the radar archive link, which is where I suppose these grabs came from. Such a shame the location maps go blank. Nevertheless a most useful function that I wasn't even aware of.

 

What i did was get a postcode for the area concerned then zoom in on it,then slide the radar back

to the desired time and then save the image.

 

So,for example the radar image for Newbury at 1pm yesterday looked like this,and the locations

are shown by pressing the "overlay places" button before saving the image.

 

[Mapantz]

I think when doing a radar zoom using the dashed box, right clicking and saving the image will remove the overlays and just show the precip returns. I used to print screen in that scenario and then paste it to mspaint and save it as a png.  

[Guest William Grimsley]

I think when doing a radar zoom using the dashed box, right clicking and saving the image will remove the overlays and just show the precip returns. I used to print screen in that scenario and then paste it to mspaint and save it as a png.

Yes, I do what you do all the time. Though, I paste the image in Paint and save it as a .jpg file, instead.

Edited November 10, 2013 by William Grimsley

[gottolovethisweather]

Thank you all. I really am useless at times as I even didn't think to use the slider function in order to get images from the last 24 hours, still learning it seems.

[Supacell]

@TP, SLEET in mid Autumn now that's pushing it a bit!...Nice to read some had hail. more exciting then sleet, well unless it's turning to snow! saying that a covering of hail can be quite incredible!

 

Not really, it is November now so sleet perfectly feasible especially in areas such as Yorkshire. We are only 3 weeks from the official start of winter and I have seen snow plenty of times in November (official in terms of the meteorological calendar anyway).

Edited November 10, 2013 by Supacell

[Convective]

Not really, it is November now so sleet perfectly feasible especially in areas such as Yorkshire. We are only 3 weeks from the official start of winter and I have seen snow plenty of times in November (official in terms of the meteorological calendar anyway).

 

Believe it or not, we had a covering of 'snow' on our conservatory yesterday. By 'snow' I mean the soft hail variation. Wasn't balls of ice (hail) and wasn't soft flakes (snow) but somewhere inbetween!

[alexisj9]

 

Believe it or not, we had a covering of 'snow' on our conservatory yesterday. By 'snow' I mean the soft hail variation. Wasn't balls of ice (hail) and wasn't soft flakes (snow) but somewhere inbetween!

 

 

Graupel snow?

 

Had loads of that last year in croydon.

Edited November 11, 2013 by alexisj9

[Coast]

Looks like it could be back to a very quiet convective period:

 

 

 

 

The 14th has a slight blip to the North, but I don't think it will bring much if any convective weather.

[Coast]

ESTOFEX make mention of Scotland today, but nothing of particular note:

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Tue 12 Nov 2013 06:00 to Wed 13 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Mon 11 Nov 2013 22:10

Forecaster: GROENEMEIJER

 

SYNOPSIS

 

The main players are a large cut-off low located between Sicily and Tunisia, which is filled with unstable air, a shortwave trough north of Scotland which moves eastward to reach Scandinavia early on Wednesday.

 

DISCUSSION

 

Scotland and Norway...

 

Embedded within a strong westerly flow, with 20-25 m/s wind speeds at 850 hPa, scattered showers and thunderstorms are forecast. They will bring strong wind gusts, which may locally exceed 25 m/s. Because of the marginal convective component of these gusts, a risk level seems not appropriate.

 

[Coast]

ESTOFEX still hanging onto some small chance off the NW coast of Scotland today:

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Wed 13 Nov 2013 06:00 to Thu 14 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Tue 12 Nov 2013 21:44

Forecaster: PUCIK

A level 1 was issued for Greece mainly for excessive precipitation and to the lesser degree for marginally large hail and tornadoes. 

 

SYNOPSIS

 

A complex synoptic scale pattern is forecast over Europe. The northern half should be under the influence of two pronounced short-wave troughs. As of Wednesday 12 UTC, the first one will stretch from Northern Scandinavia towards Poland, the other one will be located just west of the British Isles. Towards the south, a ridge will amplify from the Atlantic towards France, dividing aforementioned troughs from disturbance over Iberia and quite persistent and almost stationary cut-off low centered south of Italy. This cut-off low will drift only very slowly towards the east and should be a major feature regarding the DMC development during the day. 

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

I don't think that I'm not agree it with Daily Star, just maybe right on that way.TYPHOON WARNING: Winter weather hell as killer storm heads towards BRITAIN for Christmas.The fallout from Super Typhoon Haiyan will wreak havoc in Britain throughout winter 2013 with the long range weather forecast warning heavy snow, huge storms, high winds and freezing temperatures are heading to the UK for this Christmas.Leon Brown, from the Weather Channel, said: “The typhoon will have an effect everywhere.“At the moment warmth and moisture is moving north into China so it will take a couple of weeks before it hits the UK.“We predict that it will change the circulation of the entire northern hemisphere.â€Forecasters have been warning that the entire country is set for a horror freeze this winter which will bring brutal winds and fierce blizzards.Temperatures have already started to plunge as a swathe of cold air from the Arctic has swept across the UK.The first long-range forecasts warn of "record breaking snowfall" next month.Heavy wintry showers are expected to cause widespread chaos with below-average temperatures possibly lingering until February.Long-range forecasters blamed the position of a fast-flowing band of air known as the jet stream near to Britain and high pressure for the extreme conditions.Jonathan Powell, forecaster for Vantage Weather Services, said: 'We are looking at a potentially paralysing winter, the worst for decades, which could at times grind the nation to a halt.“Very heavy snowfall is likely."The UK’s weather system is so complex that we will see more and more extreme weather on the way according to the Daily Star reporter.The answer is no or just maybe right on that way.I think that the typhoon will have affects everywhere. The typhoon conditions will be a very likely to get the extreme storms with the rain, snow, moistures, huge storms and brutal winds with fierce blizzards are potentially very dangerous winds that could cause blown things away from Saint Jude storm is possible.I don't think that the typhoon will be a strengthen to be a mega storm with very powerful hurricane strength storms and deadly storms on the way for this winter is possible but I don't be a disagree it with Daily Star. The answers is no.I'm not forecast with Daily Star either. Anyway, we should be monitor on the way as soon as possible.Take extras care with everyone in the next few weeks that we should be a monitor on the way with even possible should be sooner or later on.

Ok. Does anyone else agree with me that this is just slightly over the top?

[ZONE 51]

Talk about picking extreme words or what, like some thing from a movie!

[ZONE 51]

Next week interesting wintry downpours of sleet, snow(and hail )even in the south, These could produce snow in the north I'd expect sleet in the south and low level snow in north, are post some detail later on convective side of the wintry spell

Edited November 13, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Jane Louise]

Guys..we have a media related thread - surely this story hasn't anything to with the convective discussion

Despite the current lack of anything convective. This may change into next week, as more active cold fronts enter the equation.

Yes, you're right. I will move it across.

[ZONE 51]

I like cold showery airflows, well as long as enough chance of clouds getting big enough, If only we had surface warmth too like in Spring ..

Edited November 13, 2013 by ElectricSnowStorm

[Panayiotis]

I think there may be a small chance of thundersnow for some western coasts next week given the GFS upper air profile...

[ZONE 51]

Yes possibly if there is enough unstable air and snow falls and temperature interaction happen right time/place then thundersnow could be.It's difficult to forecast even on the day/night but interesting to look at early possibilitys that far out!

[Coast]

I did see a bit of shearing of cloud tops out to sea this morning, ESTOFEX highlighting an area just to the North of France:

 

 

 

Storm Forecast

Valid: Thu 14 Nov 2013 06:00 to Fri 15 Nov 2013 06:00 UTC

Issued: Thu 14 Nov 2013 03:20

Forecaster: GATZEN

A level 1 was issued for the southern Aegean Sea region and south-western Turkey mainly for excessive precipitation.

 

SYNOPSIS

 

The east Mediterranean cut-off low will weaken and moves east during the day. It will be associated with widespread thunderstorms initially. Further north, a zone of rather high geopotential across Europe is crossed by a strong trough over western Europe that forms a closed low over southern France on Friday. It is associated with strong cold air advection.

 

DISCUSSION

 

France, western Mediterranean

 

An intense trough will rapidly move south across western Europe. It is associated with very strong DCVA especially at the cyclonically sheared flank of a strong mid-level jet streak that will spread from north-western France to southern France during the day. The trough will start to form another closed low centred over southern France at the end of the period.

 

 

 

 

 

Surface lapse rates up in that area:

 

 

 

[Guest William Grimsley]

There are some lovely cumulonimbus clouds to the WNW, W, WSW, SW and SSW at the moment, here.

[Guest William Grimsley]

A few hail showers made an appearance throughout today..taster of things to come perhaps. 

I hope so.

Edited November 14, 2013 by William Grimsley

[Coast]

taster of things to come perhaps. 

 

Next week? maybe: