Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[BornFromTheVoid]

Just a very quick example....correlating MEI against 1000mb temperature does not detect any strong relationships in our part of the world.

 

Similar story for 500hPa heights:

 

 

I did a fairly detailed post on this last year, which you might find of use http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74491-winter-2012-2013-part-2/?p=2373163

Seemed the strength, rather than phase, is what matters most.

[forecaster]

I did a fairly detailed post on this last year, which you might find of use http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/74491-winter-2012-2013-part-2/?p=2373163

Seemed the strength, rather than phase, is what matters most.

 

That was very interesting, thanks. 

[Buriedundersnow]

for those who maybe don't know what a classic TRIPOLE is heres a chart and note the atlantic

 

W = warm

 

C = cold

 

TRIPOLE =  warm then cold then warm ( warm south of Greenland, cold mid atlantic and warm tropical atlantic)

 

 

here is a link to the SST anomalies

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

Edited November 1, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Summer Sun]

Meteorological Center Of Russia model also going for above average temps this winter

 

Precipitation is shown be near normal for most with north west Scotland and possible the SE seeing below average amounts

 

[UV-RAY]

Meteorological Center Of Russia model also going for above average temps this winter

 

Precipitation is shown be near normal for most with north west Scotland and possible the SE seeing below average amounts

 

Another model suggesting strong +height anomalies over Greenland, I'll ignore the temp profiles  for the UK as all long range models struggle with these. On the whole a good update for coldies.

Edited November 1, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[forecaster]

for those who maybe don't know what a classic TRIPOLE is heres a chart and note the atlantic

 

W = warm

 

C = cold

 

TRIPOLE =  warm then cold then warm ( warm south of Greenland, cold mid atlantic and warm tropical atlantic)

 

anomnight_12_23_2010.gif

 

here is a link to the SST anomalies

 

http://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/index.html

 

Here is the pattern just before the cold set in that month:

 

[Andy_]

 

Can't help but take a peek at some CFS charts when i'm bored, 

Christmas Eve Snowmageddon looks alright 

[Ian Brown]

 

Can't help but take a peek at some CFS charts when i'm bored, 

Christmas Eve Snowmageddon looks alright 

 

An outrageous chart !

[Gavin Hannah]

Charts of an R rated nature should have their own thread lol.

Edited November 1, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[Captain Shortwave]

 

Can't help but take a peek at some CFS charts when i'm bored, 

Christmas Eve Snowmageddon looks alright 

That would be nasty, I had a look at the 850 temps, it would snow everywhere apart from here most likely 

Edited November 1, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Barry12]

 

Can't help but take a peek at some CFS charts when i'm bored, 

Christmas Eve Snowmageddon looks alright 

 

You wouldn't be seeing relatives if that came off...

[Cheshire Freeze]

Yep blocking back with a vengeance on the CFS today (both updates so far have been pretty spectacular)

 

 

 

[Buriedundersnow]

Here is the pattern just before the cold set in that month:

 

 

 

 

 

that chart is 2009 the one I was showing was 2010

 

here is the SST anomalies for the closest to todays date as I can find for the past few years 2008 onwards to this year for comparison on how we stand just now

 

[UV-RAY]

Yep blocking back with a vengeance on the CFS today (both updates so far have been pretty spectacular)

 

Jan block.png

I thought Gav would have posted this update.

[UV-RAY]

You wouldn't be seeing relatives if that came off...

Every cloud has a silver lining I suppose. That would bring a lot of disruption  to the country, with blizzard like conditions in some parts of the SE.

[Andy_]

You wouldn't be seeing relatives if that came off...

 

The majority of us live a few streets apart now so whatever the weather is we can walk, even that would be difficult though I imagine hahah 

[Buriedundersnow]

more twitter comments rubbishing American models

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 28m

There is something seriously wrong with modeling when ECWMF GLOBAL models beat the hurricane models at hurricanes. Rehaul needed

 

and

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 23m

Market is so wired into the GFS, that private mets have to comment on its 12z run,which is 1st guess.ECWMF late, meticulously initialized

[Skullzrulerz]

Channel 5 Weather on tv says a winter mix around scotland on sat.

[berginis]

Met office app saying light snow for my area (West Lothian) on Sunday night!

Met office app saying light snow for my area (West Lothian) on Sunday night!

[bryan629]

 

Can't help but take a peek at some CFS charts when i'm bored, 

Christmas Eve Snowmageddon looks alright 

Great find Andy.... looking a bit nearer in the timeframe CFS wants to rattle a few milk bottles a week on Saturday

 

 

Edited November 1, 2013 by bryan629

[Buriedundersnow]

Met office app saying light snow for my area (West Lothian) on Sunday night!Met office app saying light snow for my area (West Lothian) on Sunday night!

 

BERGINIS go to top right of page click on your name go to profile and put in your location

Edited November 1, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Buriedundersnow]

Met office app saying light snow for my area (West Lothian) on Sunday night!Met office app saying light snow for my area (West Lothian) on Sunday night!

 

also being new don't know how much you have looked around the site heres a link to the Scottish thread as well so you can check in there as well and chat with fellow scots as well as chatting elsewhere

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78047-scotland-regional-discussion-autumn-2013/page-15#entry2824270

Edited November 1, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[berginis]

BERGINIS go to top right of page click on your name go to profile and put in your location

Done (I think) I'm on mobile version

also being new don't know how much you have looked around the site heres a link to the Scottish thread as well so you can check in there as well and chat with fellow scots as well as chatting elsewherehttp://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78047-scotland-regional-discussion-autumn-2013/page-15#entry2824270

Cheers

[Methuselah]

also being new don't know how much you have looked around the site heres a link to the Scottish thread as well so you can check in there as well and chat with fellow scots as well as chatting elsewhere

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78047-scotland-regional-discussion-autumn-2013/page-15#entry2824270

It's starting to sound like the Royal Shakespeare? 

[Buriedundersnow]

Done (I think) I'm on mobile versionCheers

 

yeah that's it done we can all tell your from armadale now so if you ask any questions about your location will be easier for someone to answer correctly