Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[smithyweather]

What about 2 years ago,winter 2011/12 was a mild one. So i dont think it is really true imo to say we are due a mild one.

Yes last winter was crap. So mild.According to i'm a dream of we are stuck in the mild pattern through to the end of December.I'm sorry but I don't believe that, the time is going on and we WILL see some cold at some point. It WILL snow here before December, it always does.

Our normal default winter weather pattern is average to mild and it's been a few years since we had a mild winter. There's nothing scientific about it, just the law of averages.

It was mild last year and we have just gone through 20 years of mild winters. We are due a 1740 style winter.

[Barry12]

Yes last winter was crap. So mild.According to i'm a dream of we are stuck in the mild pattern through to the end of December.I'm sorry but I don't believe that, the time is going on and we WILL see some cold at some point. It WILL snow here before December, it always does.It was mild last year and we have just gone through 20 years of mild winters. We are due a 1740 style winter.

 

Last Winter was below average...

[cheshire snow]

Daily Express just do it all the time. They are nothing but a joke. There is no way any significant cold air mass will penetrate south, especially at this set-up right now.

 

 

They are bad as David Cameron and Nick clegg kept lying to us.

 

 Took the liberty to read the front page this morning whilst waiting to pay for petrol and to be fair they only mention Snow

 for the high ground in Scotalnd,However yes fully agree why this should make front page news is beyond me

 

C.S

[Barry12]

 Took the liberty to read the front page this morning whilst waiting to pay for petrol and to be fair they only mention Snow

 for the high ground in Scotalnd,However yes fully agree why this should make front page news is beyond me

 

C.S

 

It sells papers.

[smithyweather]

Last Winter was below average...

No it was not. It was really really mild in December and January.

[sundog]

No it was not. It was really really mild in December and January.

The first half of last winter was mild overall,second half was much colder.

Edited November 2, 2013 by sundog

[Summer Sun]

Not sure what this means for the UK but Matt Hugo has just tweeted this

 

Bit of a blip but temps across the pole are now back to near avg. Question is; how low will they go this side of Xmas

 

 

Asked Matt what that means for the UK

 

The Reply

 

Not much really, apart from 'business as usual' Low pressure to the N, little chance of early, significant cold weather.

 

[Barry12]

No it was not. It was really really mild in December and January.

 

It was 0.4C below average

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2013/winter

[I remember Atlantic 252]

No it was not. It was really really mild in December and January.

 

January mild? wasn't here 13th-26th was dominated by snow and ice, was one of best wintry spells for ages

[cheshire snow]

It sells papers.

 

 Not in the petrol station I was in this morning LOL

 

 C.S

[Barry12]

'December was equal to the long term average for the month, January was 0.3 °C below, February was 0.9 °C below and at 2.8 °C was the coldest month of the season. Spells of notably mild weather occurred in late December and early January, and notably cold weather in early December, mid to late January, and the latter part of February.'

Edited November 2, 2013 by Barry95

[Barry12]

 Not in the petrol station I was in this morning LOL

 

 C.S

 

you don't go to a petrol station to buy the paper though

[johnholmes]

No it was not. It was really really mild in December and January.

 

It might be better IF you stated you feel it was not for your area, perhaps also to back that view up, some actual statistics from your station or the nearest one to you.

For instance December here was 0.3C above my 17 years average; January was 0.8C below that 17 year average. No snow in December but at least 9 days of falling snow (I was away part of the time so have no direct information). The 17 year average for falling snow in January is only 2 days although the statistics for RAF Finningley 1942-1995 showed 7.

Edited November 2, 2013 by johnholmes

[Buriedundersnow]

still some nice blocking charts showing on the CFS this morning on both runs more so on the 6z which looks pretty blocked throughout even extending into spring where the 0z has the odd bad chart

 

0z

 

 

6z

 

[feb1991blizzard]

It might be better IF you stated you feel it was not for your area, perhaps also to back that view up, some actual statistics from your station or the nearest one to you.

For instance December here was 0.3C above my 17 years average; January was 0.8C below that 17 year average. No snow in December but at least 9 days of falling snow (I was away part of the time so have no direct information). The 17 year average for falling snow in January is only 2 days although the statistics for RAF Finningley 1942-1995 showed 7.

 

bloody hell, that seems rather low for South Yorkshire to me, I know you don't have any altitude but even so.......

[UV-RAY]

still some nice blocking charts showing on the CFS this morning on both runs more so on the 6z which looks pretty blocked throughout even extending into spring where the 0z has the odd bad chart

 

0z

 

cfsnh-4-12-2013.pngcfsnh-4-1-2014.pngcfsnh-4-2-2014.pngcfsnh-4-3-2014.png

 

6z

 

2.png3.png4.png5.pngcfsnh-4-4-2014.png

Some cracking charts there for cold and potentially snowy weather for all three winter months, also March is looking cold and blocked again. Now all we need is for the weather to follow the script and bingo!

[Buriedundersnow]

I would like to add in here we are far from a winters over point of view at this stage

 

I have taken the means of GFS,ECM and GEM and done a little paint

 

black line = where the Jetstream is

 

yellow line = where we don't want to see it

 

now I know its not as far south as we would really like to see it but for it to stay to south of UK for the next week on all ensembles things could still go either way dependant on what the jet stream decides it wants to do but we are far from in a majorly bad position at this stage

 

Edited November 2, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[Barry12]

we are far from a winters over point of view at this stage

 

Of course we are, It's 2nd of November!

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Noticed on the SST Anomalies for the Atlantic, the 'warm, cold, warm' situation is present. Apparently a good sign for the development on Northern blocking through winter when we have this anomaly in place in Autumn/Early Winter. Noticed in Gav Partridges vids, he mentions that the warm cold warm setup has a good correlation with colder than average winters

 

(By warm cold warm, the sea temperatures by the Caribbean are warm, mid atlantic cold, then up towards Greenland warmer than norm.) 

[Buriedundersnow]

Noticed on the SST Anomalies for the Atlantic, the 'warm, cold, warm' situation is present. Apparently a good sign for the development on Northern blocking through winter when we have this anomaly in place in Autumn/Early Winter. Noticed in Gav Partridges vids, he mentions that the warm cold warm setup has a good correlation with colder than average winters

 

(By warm cold warm, the sea temperatures by the Caribbean are warm, mid atlantic cold, then up towards Greenland warmer than norm.) 

 

yes the closest I can find over the last few years to where SST's are just now is 2009

 

Edited November 2, 2013 by Buriedundersnow

[johnholmes]

the actual data, 1997-2013 here

bloody hell, that seems rather low for South Yorkshire to me, I know you don't have any altitude but even so.......

4 1 1 1 0 0 5 4 3 1 0 3 2 7 2 0 10, so average =3;

my error can't read!

a bit variable as you can see

Edited November 2, 2013 by johnholmes

[Buriedundersnow]

CFS 12z again showing some good blocked charts apart from January which could be a bit of a mixed bag

 

[Skullzrulerz]

CFS 12z again showing some good blocked charts apart from January which could be a bit of a mixed bag

 

cfsnh-4-12-2013.pngcfsnh-4-1-2014.pngcfsnh-4-2-2014.pngcfsnh-4-3-2014.png

At least the war world winter is now even

Or If you do not understand that the cold and hot now looks even.

[feb1991blizzard]

the actual data, 1997-2013 here

bloody hell, that seems rather low for South Yorkshire to me, I know you don't have any altitude but even so.......

4 1 1 1 0 0 5 4 3 1 0 3 2 7 2 0 10, so average =3;

my error can't read!

a bit variable as you can see

 

Cheers.  Yes there does seem to be massive variations in Northern England in snow amounts, certainly more so  than when i lived in the midlands anyway, on average I get something like 25 days a year of falling snow and 30 days of lying snow yet Salford where i last lived was under 10 for both categories i think.

[Catacol]

yes the closest I can find over the last few years to where SST's are just now is 2009

 

anomnight_11_2_2009.gifanomnight_10_31_2013.gif

 

It is starting to look like the only signal that is good at the moment for cold... but it is a signal for mid atlantic blocking as much as anything else and that is not automatically cold, especially if the jet roars over the top and is working continually to flatten it. I am still seeing a strong NW element to the first third of winter - average day time temps but maybe a lack of night time frost pushing the overall CET above the average line.