Winter 2013-2014 Discussion- Part 2

[smithyweather]

'Fed up waiting' ???

 

Its not usual to have snow by the 2nd of November in fact I know of no winter when the coldest period was September to November.

 

As the winds swung to the East on January 23rd 1947 heavy snow followed and prolonged period of snow ice and leaden skies lasted till mid March 1947

 

On Christmas day of 1962 a belt of rain and sleet moved over southern Britain as mild air tried in vain to push the cold continental air away (it failed) and snow ice and  leaden skies lasted till early March 1963

 

Jan 1940,Jan 1979,Feb 86,Jan 87 etc

 

I would suggest you can get impatient by the end of February 2014

 

I would like to see some 'cold signals' being picked up well into FI but that's a different matter.

 

Actually yes it is. It snows here every November. 

[Catacol]

update to my long range prediction for the winter 13/14 made in

August and I see no reason to change from what I posted back

then of a severe winter to come for Europe and the UK with a

predominantly negative AO and NAO.

Higher than normal ozone over the northern hemisphere and

Arctic will aid in pacific (Aleutian,northeast Pacific)and Asian

wave breaking. Looking at the synoptic charts the pacific highs

are really putting pressure on the stratosphere and I think it is a  

question of when rather then if the dam breaks we will then see a

pattern much more conducive to mid latitude Arctic outbreaks.

 

 

I must say, that's the impression I have been getting too cc

 

Admirable confidence, but I'm not seeing it yet. Vortex is resisting the ridging from the pacific and retaining its shape.

second day in a row with the ECM 12z showing signs of ridging in the Atlantic

 

ECH1-240.gif

 Its been showing it for more than just the last couple of days, but in the majority of runs it is getting flattened quickly.

[Weather-history]

Why does winter bring out the worst in everything on weather forums?

Histrionics, panic merchants, doom merchants, tantrum throwing, toys out of the pram, shysters, so called experts, yarn spinners, trolling, wind up merchants, exaggeration, tabloid type sensationalism, childishness, complete denial of facts, wishful thinking, straw clutching, whinging, scriking, spit the dummy out...

[Yarmy]

Why does winter bring out the worst in everything on weather forums?Histrionics, panic merchants, doom merchants, tantrum throwing, toys out of the pram, shysters, so called experts, yarn spinners, trolling, wind up merchants, exaggeration, tabloid type sensationalism, childishness, complete denial of facts, wishful thinking, straw clutching, whinging, scriking, spit the dummy out...

You wanna see the NCFC forums. :-(

[Radiating Dendrite]

Actually yes it is. It snows here every November.

Hehe......I knew you would say that in reply. Are you a secret American or is everything just bigger and better in N. Ireland? :)I think we all just need to calm down and be patient. Every winter has some kind of cold spell at some point, willing snow and cold will not make it happen any sooner.

[stewfox]

Actually yes it is. It snows here every November. 

 

I was talking about low level uk, not the Scottish mountains or the highest peak in the Sperrins.

 

The point being its not usual to have snow in early November but a bonus (yes we had snow around here a few years ago in late October)

 

I don't expect snow at this time of year nor should anyone living below 1500ft within the UK.

 

What I assume most of us want to see is signal in FI of colder prospects.

 

Hehe......I knew you would say that in reply.

Are you a secret American or is everything just bigger and better in N. Ireland?

I think we all just need to calm down and be patient. Every winter has some kind of cold spell at some point, willing snow and cold will not make it happen any sooner.

 

See here for his location

 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=hts&oq=&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4ADFA_enGB462GB462&q=Sperrin+Mountains

 

When we had a long run of almost snowless winters I was willing the rain to turn to snow under the lamp posts at 4am , now you say my 'willing it' made no difference ?

Edited November 2, 2013 by stewfox

[stewfox]

Autumn ends in November and winter ends in February

 

Nobody told my snow man that he was still hanging around on 1st April 2013 (see attached pic). He had a great time in March 2013.

Edited November 2, 2013 by stewfox

[Skullzrulerz]

A ice age may be coming soon this century...

[cheese]

Nobody told my snow man that he was still hanging around on 1st April 2013 (see attached pic). He had a great time in March 2013.

 

Nobody told March 2013, the coldest month of the year.

Edited November 2, 2013 by cheese

[Skullzrulerz]

Nobody told March 2013, the coldest month of the year.

March 2013 Was the coldest month in record if i am right?

 

Edit March 2013 The mean temp was 2.2c only missed out by 0.3C! to be the coldest march on record which was March 1962 Mean 1.9.

Edited November 2, 2013 by Skulltheruler

[cheese]

It was the second coldest March on record I believe from 1910 onwards, but if you look at the entire CET series, it's the 14th coldest.

Edited November 2, 2013 by cheese

[smithyweather]

I was talking about low level uk, not the Scottish mountains or the highest peak in the Sperrins.

 

The point being its not usual to have snow in early November but a bonus (yes we had snow around here a few years ago in late October)

 

I don't expect snow at this time of year nor should anyone living below 1500ft within the UK.

 

What I assume most of us want to see is signal in FI of colder prospects.

 

See here for his location

 

https://www.google.co.uk/search?sourceid=navclient&aq=hts&oq=&ie=UTF-8&rlz=1T4ADFA_enGB462GB462&q=Sperrin+Mountains

 

When we had a long run of almost snowless winters I was willing the rain to turn to snow under the lamp posts at 4am , now you say my 'willing it' made no difference ?

I average 2 days of snow falling in November. It is not unusual to get snow falling in November here so yes it is actually right for me to expect snow at some point during this month. Pretty much every year it happens. 

[stewfox]

It was the second coldest March on record I believe from 1910 onwards, but if you look at the entire CET series, it's the 14th coldest.

 

yes as you can see here

 

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadcet/mly_cet_mean_sort.txt

[stewfox]

Deleted

 

Edited November 2, 2013 by stewfox

[Radiating Dendrite]

Deleted.

Edited November 2, 2013 by Radiating Dendrite

[smithyweather]

What's your elevation there ?

I'm in the 10-20 zone. But i'm talking about snow falling. I'm not expecting to see any snow lying, but snow falling without a doubt. 

[summer blizzard]

Why does winter bring out the worst in everything on weather forums?Histrionics, panic merchants, doom merchants, tantrum throwing, toys out of the pram, shysters, so called experts, yarn spinners, trolling, wind up merchants, exaggeration, tabloid type sensationalism, childishness, complete denial of facts, wishful thinking, straw clutching, whinging, scriking, spit the dummy out...

 

"For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction".

 

The winter season is most popular therefore it allows a positive multiplier to take place as we get ever higher activity, unfortunately this heightened activity also attracts the ignorant, the unintelligent and the trolls. In summer which is less popular we see less extreme members and more pragmatism.

 

I do love Netweather in winter though be it rejoicing at snow or listening to somebody in Hampshire telling me that i'm wrong when i tell him a front will be rain south of Birmingham only to be attacked by 10 people in the regional thread, of course in the end i was quite smug.

[Blessed Weather]

Why does winter bring out the worst in everything on weather forums?Histrionics, panic merchants, doom merchants, tantrum throwing, toys out of the pram, shysters, so called experts, yarn spinners, trolling, wind up merchants, exaggeration, tabloid type sensationalism, childishness, complete denial of facts, wishful thinking, straw clutching, whinging, scriking, spit the dummy out...

 

I've been following the various Netweather forums for a couple of years now and thoroughly enjoy the great posts from many members. Despite the weather being a life-long hobby I'm still learning a lot from posters so thank you all. When I read the post from Weather-history this evening I nearly fell off my seat laughing. An absolutely spot-on observation. But do you know what? It's the passion that makes the Netweather forums the best!

On a more serious note, I think there are the first signs in various model output that the current zonal conveyor will come to an end during the latter half of November. Any future posts from me will try and add a bit more value in the way of reasoning, analysis and charts.

[Buriedundersnow]

Nevis Range â€@TheNevisRange 52m

How deep? pic.twitter.com/y9bzROd7mH

 

 

[Captain Shortwave]

There is some longer range backup for conditions to quieten down from mid month onwards which is a positive, and the CFS/JMA are potentially looking to develop heights to our north east towards the end of the month giving drier and cooler conditions. At this stage there is no point of talking about snow given this is 3/4 weeks away. 

If we did end up with heights over the UK or Scandi with a still strong ridge in the Pacific, we could be in good shape heading into December as there is a good chance of killing the Canadian/Greenland lobe of the Polar vortex and potentially getting blocking well established to our north.

Edited November 2, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[SE Blizzards]

A few bits of eye candy showing up on the 18z Ens in FI.

 

Nothing spectacularly cold at this stage, but maybe the first signs of a few early winter seeds being planted.

[boywonder]

Nevis Range â€@TheNevisRange 52m

How deep? pic.twitter.com/y9bzROd7mH

 

BYGMuwZIgAAVS5s.jpg

 

Must be a foot deep..Having Skied in highlands twice when the conditions are right it can be as good as the Alps.

Edited November 3, 2013 by boywonder

[Mark Neal.]

A few bits of eye candy showing up on the 18z Ens in FI.

 

Nothing spectacularly cold at this stage, but maybe the first signs of a few early winter seeds being planted.

Oooh such as tease!

[Summer Sun]

First it was the Express now its the Daily Star

 

Stormageddon! Britain set for more catastrophic weather with bone-chilling freeze

 

BALTIC Britain is set to freeze next week as sub-zero winter weather blows in – only hours after a very soggy weekend. Temperatures are set to plunge from the balmy 20C warmth of October to below zero as the UK falls victim to winter’s icy grip.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2826030

[UV-RAY]

First it was the Express now its the Daily StarStormageddon! Britain set for more catastrophic weather with bone-chilling freezeBALTIC Britain is set to freeze next week as sub-zero winter weather blows in – only hours after a very soggy weekend. Temperatures are set to plunge from the balmy 20C warmth of October to below zero as the UK falls victim to winter’s icy grip.http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/69782-weather-in-the-general-media-newspaper-features-etc/?p=2826030

Can someone please direct me to the correct models showing this,as I can't find any freeze next week. :-) Edited November 3, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer