Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Cheshire Freeze]

Patiently awaiting Steve Murrs 'sausage'.....

[AWD]

Overnight tonight we'll see a temperature difference of around 20c across the UK in parts of Scotland -5c looks likely whilst in south west England the overnight low will be around 15c

Someone just watched the BBC weather by Chris Fawkes!

[Summer Sun]

Someone just watched the BBC weather by Chris Fawkes!

 

Chris Fawkes on Guy Fawkes day

 

Someone at the beeb has a sense of humor

[Cheshire Freeze]

Chris Fawkes on Guy Fawkes day

 

Someone at the beeb has a sense of humor

 

I'd have named him Guy if I was his dad. How's that for humour. Bit of tough love never did anyone any harm

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows a pressure rise from the south next week which gradually brings a spell of anticyclonic weather to the southern half of the uk as the PFJ is forced northwards, for the south it would mean an end to the wind and rain and a return to tranquil benign conditions with sunny spells and light winds but not particularly mild and the ingredients are all there for thick fog which at this time of year could stick around all day as the sun's influence continues to wane by the day. For the north of the uk it would continue unsettled but temperatures would recover to near average, this week is rather chilly across the north with max temps around 7-8 c and colder in the mountains with wintry showers, currently it looks like sunday will be rather cold nationwide with a light to moderate Northerly flow with showers down the eastern side of the uk and becoming fairer from the west as an atlantic ridge pushes into the uk and this would bring widespread frosts for a few nights.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z sticking to its guns for a pressure rise on Sunday

 

[Barry12]

Cold in the North this weekend

 

 

 

Very mild on Monday with temperatures getting up to 16C in the south

 

 

 

 

But it's only a blip by the looks of it, as temperatures return to around average on Tuesday

 

Edited November 5, 2013 by Barry95

[stewfox]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=8&mode=0&carte=0

 

A rogue run from the GFS 06z sets the trend for the second half of November....

 

S

 

What signals am I looking for this winter ?

 

Increasing signals of colder prospects out in FI on various model out puts. Just a few days ago there was very little on offer out to T384

 

However the strongest correlation for cold prospects I look for is  SM posting going up, something to keep in mind and over all number of posts. 12 pages since 1/11 . when I see 12 pages an hour that's when I get really excited.

 

 

Edited November 5, 2013 by stewfox

[reef]

GFS 12z sticking to its guns for a pressure rise on Sunday

 

High pressure does not always equal better weather though. Temperatures would be higher than now of course, but the high pressure is too far south. The weather in this setup would actually be pretty cloudy, wet and windy away from southern areas.

 

Sunday:

 

 

Monday:

 

 

Those looking for more settled weather may be disappointed. With such a moist south-westerly airflow it could be particularly wet in western areas aswell.

 

Ironically the better weather comes in the couple of days after where the moist warm air is replaced by a polar maritime north-westerly flow giving cooler weather but a mixture of sunshine and showers.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO also shows high pressure building over Spain, Portugal, France ect and this drifts up-to the UK

 

[Jax]

Certainly now looks to be showing normal mixed Autumn type weather mild and wet with cooler dry spells in the short term.  And I see Sunday's "storm" has been cancelled.

[MR EXTREMES]

the ukmo is a good chart at t144 a lull in the alantic with deep area of low pressure zipping across the uk but behind this depression is  where im intrested could pressure build behind alantic block leading to something more intresting.....

there is also pressure building into Russia and the low heights could well start to push se in Europe lowering heights here.

 

is see pattern change on the ukmo but its only one run and we need others to go with this idear.

Edited November 5, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[MR EXTREMES]

the gfs into fi is showing a very close situation with low into scandi dropping into Europe intresting stuff.

[Mark Neal.]

the gfs into fi is showing a very close situation with low into scandi dropping into Europe intresting stuff.

 

Looks like we would need much lower heights into Europe, and a better orientated high into Scandi. ANyway it has been quite depressing outlook for coldies so at least some straws to clutch. Plenty of time yet, and something much more interesting to keep watching as we move through November, as Mr Murr said earlier! 

 

This the chart you on about Model Rollercoaster?

 

Edited November 5, 2013 by Mark N

[Captain Shortwave]

Evening. GFS is throwing some interest, though still a long way out. One thing to be positive about is this

Where's the jet going 

The 00z suite was similar too with the jet shifting southwards into the latter stages of week 2. 

Would suggest maybe a Scandi block developing in the second half of November. Something to watch and actually something beyond the long range models and MJO composites to work with here. If this block gets in with the jet undercutting it, we could see some cold weather develop later in the month.

P.S Will add the 12z mean when it comes out.

Oh and nice charts Steve M and Frosty

Edited November 5, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[MR EXTREMES]

Looks like we would need much lower heights into Europe, and a better orientated high into Scandi. ANyway it has been quite depressing outlook for coldies so at least some straws to clutch. Plenty of time yet, and something much more interesting to keep watching as we move through November, as Mr Murr said earlier! 

 

This the chart you on about Model Rollercoaster?

 384hrs.png

no I think it was earlier timeframe I did try to post the chart but explorer is rubbish so switched to google which is much better.

I think anything is possible within the next couple of weeks it has been rather depressing can certain feel the chill in the air today on the south coast.

 

I think the models are trying to get rid of heights around mid Europe the sooner the better I got a feeling a scandi block may well build through December.

lets see what the ecm thinks.

[sundog]

Think this is the chart Model Rollercoaster is on about.

[Mark Neal.]

Think this is the chart Model Rollercoaster is on about.

 

If thats the case, we really need heights to the South to become much lower. northern blocking not there either. Vortex looks more disturbed which is at least a good thing. 

[MR EXTREMES]

yep that's the one...... gem stays flat so I would not be surprised to see the ecm flatten things aswell.

sorry guys got new windows 8 and im really getting annoyed that I cant copy paste charts im talking about.

Edited November 5, 2013 by model rollercoaster

[Summer Sun]

GFS 8 day temperature outlook shows the south starting to become milder again, parts of Scotland are around 3c below average

 

Edited November 5, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Snowman.]

Just by way of balance.... http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=384&code=7&mode=0&carte=0

 

 

 

NOOOOOOOO!!!!.................Perturbation 7..GEFS 06Z = THE HOLY FAIL...*ANK.....   SHOCKING CHARTS    

 

 

  

That's actually a good run from a NH view better than 8 which would just run out of cold.

 

nvm meteociel is lying to me.

Edited November 5, 2013 by SN0WM4N

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking at the 12z GEFS, I think that there might be signs of slightly more amplification on the Pacific side of the NH as we approach day 7-8. Certainly, the number of perturbations showing an increasingly disturbed vortex in FI have increased quite markedly over the past 2 or 3 days.

 

Certainly seems to be a trend to push the vortex over to the Scandinavian/Eurasian side of the NH towards day 9 on a few members of the 12z suite (as opposed to sitting around the Greenland/Canadian sector.

Edited November 5, 2013 by CreweCold

[Mark Neal.]

Looking at the 12z GEFS, I think that there might be signs of slightly more amplification on the Pacific side of the NH as we approach day 7-8. Certainly, the number of perturbations showing an increasingly disturbed vortex in FI have increased quite markedly over the past 2 or 3 days.

 

Yes something i have been seeing over the last few runs Crewe, there is a trend that some pertubations go with a more disturbed vortex as time goes on, which is a encouraging sign. ECM rolling out wonder if it will show a more disturbed vortex in 40 mins time. 

[Snowman.]

CFS

 

 

 

Later delivers...

 

 

 

Begins to die

 

 

 

Nope!

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Interestingly by mid FI 240+ there appears to reasonable consensus amongst the ensembles of the HP retrogressing to the N Atlantic- with some Greenland links in there aswell. Fits in well with a couple of the posters in here championing an Atlantic high solution in the 10-14 day timeframe. Looks to be a transient feature at present but certainly one to watch over the coming days.

Edited November 5, 2013 by CreweCold