Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[ITSY]

interesting to note that the amplification and ridging towards greenland in the low res output was supported by the control run in the last set, so will be interesting to see if it becomes a trend. in the meanwhile, the amount of rain shown for this week has me worried, with lots of standing water already in the fields surrounding my house. the GFS06z Op had a frightening amount of rain for central parts, particularly when including next weekend

[Snowman.]

NAO looks like remaining positive through to at least mid month

 

Massive drop from what it was a few days ago clearly a trend going on there.

[Mucka]

UKMO a bit of an eye opener.

 

 

 

Even if it came off I dare say it would be a toppler but even so it would help make a more amplified pattern with possible MLB down the line.

 

Given ECM and GFS FI have generally been a little more interesting for cold lovers of late I will look forward to the ECM 12z

Edited November 3, 2013 by Mucka

[Snowman.]

Pacific ridge edging its way into the Arctic.

[Captain Shortwave]

UKMO a bit of an eye opener.

 

 

 

Even if it came off I dare say it would be a toppler but even so it would help make a more amplified pattern with possible MLB down the line.

 

Given ECM and GFS FI have generally been a little more interesting for cold lovers of late I will look forward to the ECM 12z

Hope to see that low move south east through France into the Mediterranean, given extensive heights over Russia currently I would like to see some retrogression to form a block over Scandinavia in due course. Fits with the MJO predictions along with some of the long range models. 

Edited November 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[lorenzo]

Some mighty ridging present on the output today, as highlighted earlier by BA the Pacific really ramping up, catching up so these lifted from the 00z. That Aleutian High anomaly chart is literally off the scale and the mean itself looks quite handy !

 

Anomaly / Mean

 

 

Met Office builds that Siberian High also picked up on this morning ECM run, the NH plot signals the Atlantic ridging also.

 

Very interesting picture with respect to disrupting the PV with Wave Activity.  Another MJO plot built from Velocity potential anomalies highlights potential for the mid Atlantic Ridge, where will it go after that...

 

GLAAM has gone through the floor, so it will be interesting to see just how outrageous these predicted blocks can get..

 

You can almost sense the loopy GFS 18z runs are just around the corner..

 

 

[Iceaxecrampon]

Bring it on! Winter 2013-2014

 

Good to see some Jock activity early in the season

 

 

 

N England gets the treatment later on in the week 85% chance for Northern Pennines -  Cross Fell will be good.

 

Autumn if not Winter is here  - definite chill today after the squalls.

 

Ian

[Summer Sun]

A while off yet in weather terms but next weekend looks darn chilly in the north

 

These are the max temps from GFS

 

 

The pennines and Lakes would be turning white if it comes off

 

[bluearmy]

ref lorenzo's post - that pacific high is certainly a large part of the jigsaw wrt to upsetting the p/v via wave 1.  however, at the moment, the eastern siberian depressions appear to rolling over the top of the ridge rather than digging into the pacific and generating a better push S/N of the flow.  without that, i fear the bonus of the mean n pacific ridge could be lost in respect of a possible early season displacement/split of the vortex.

[lorenzo]

ref lorenzo's post - that pacific high is certainly a large part of the jigsaw wrt to upsetting the p/v via wave 1.  however, at the moment, the eastern siberian depressions appear to rolling over the top of the ridge rather than digging into the pacific and generating a better push S/N of the flow.  without that, i fear the bonus of the mean n pacific ridge could be lost in respect of a possible early season displacement/split of the vortex.

 

Hopefully this loop will open, shows exactly the point you make, into the output period the recurve is evident and the ridge holds steady.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/mslp/mslp_npac_loop.html

 

 

Edit - add image.

Edited November 3, 2013 by lorenzo

[bluearmy]

Hopefully this loop will open, shows exactly the point you make, into the output period the recurve is evident and the ridge holds steady.

 

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/kgriffin/maps/mslp/mslp_npac_loop.html

 

mslp_npac_81.gif

 

Edit - add image.

 

the ridge regenerates after the energy goes over the top. to all intents and purposes its a mean ridge but there is a world of difference between one which waxes and wanes and allows energy to pass over it and one which holds fast and, more likely due to the behaviour of the jet to the west,  sends the energy due north well into the arctic.  here's hoping for the modelling to trend towards the latter as we head through november.

 

the 12z ecm has a pretty good go at the kind of solution we are looking for but still ends up sending too much energy west. we can see where the strat charts are getting their wave 1 temp rises from. 

Edited November 3, 2013 by bluearmy

[Frosty.]

There are some wintry looking charts on the GEFS 12z perturbations, some Northerly outbreaks even by T+168 hours and check out P16 which shows a powerful scandi high and a strong very cold Easterly with temps of 3-4 celsius..it's nice to see the wintry charts popping up now, hopefully we will see the first cold snap soon. :-)

Edited November 3, 2013 by Frosty.

[bluearmy]

There are some wintry looking charts on the GEFS 12z perturbations, some Northerly outbreaks even by T+168 hours and check out P16 which shows a powerful scandi high and a strong very cold Easterly with temps of 3-4 celsius..it's nice to see the wintry charts popping up now, hopefully we will see the first cold snap soon. :-)

 

approx 10% of the ecm 00z ens members went for a solution which gave sub 40f daytime maxes to london in week 2.

[Summer Sun]

ECM ends a lot more settled than it did 24hrs ago

 

[Captain Shortwave]

ECM ends a lot more settled than it did 24hrs ago

 

Fair to say the ensembles back the op here

[bobbydog]

confirmation that this winter will be the coldest in living memory-

 

A while off yet in weather terms but next weekend looks darn chilly in the north

 

These are the max temps from GFS

 

 

The pennines and Lakes would be turning white if it comes off

 

 

 

 

 

 

Gavin said......  i quote-   "darn chilly"..........

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Bring on the classic blocking setups, tired already of this atlantic rubbish!! Lets get the Green and Yellow colours maybe even reds up to Greenland and Scandi. Cannot wait until Frosty can really express his brilliance of emphasising those Beasterly and Northerly setups just like he did with those summer scorcher charts.

[Barry12]

Signs that the Atlantic may not be so dominant, a change by mid-month to something much colder.

 

Edited November 3, 2013 by A Boy Named Sue
Was that really necessary?

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby, little sign of any cold weather for anyone after the cold blip over the next 24 hours has passed

 

The General Situation. The UK lies under a unstable airflow due to low pressure to the North of the UK. Disturbances running East over Southern Britain at times too this week could give rise to some persistent rain at times here, one such feature this evening and tonight in the South, another on Wednesday and perhaps another late in the week. Outside of this Westerly winds and scattered showers look likely and after a cool day tomorrow temperatures will return to average or slightly above average with strong winds at times almost anywhere in association with Low pressure areas as they cross.

 

GFS then shows very changeable conditions through part 2 of it's run with the emphasis on slightly longer drier spells across the UK as ridges cross East between the low pressure's Temperatures will be largely close to the seasonal average and if any of the ridges pass overnight then some patchy frost and fog might develop.

 

UKMO closes tonight's run with Low pressure bearing down on Western Britain again from the NW with rain and showers feeding back in from the Atlantic on blustery SW winds and average temperatures.

 

GEM shows a continuation of relatively mild but strong SW winds with spells of rain moving through at times alternating with somewhat brighter and drier spells.

 

NAVGEM gives the UK another bad weekend weatherwise with Low pressure slipping across the UK over the weekend providing plenty of showers and rain at times in blustery winds and temperatures around the average.

 

ECM also shows a changeable and windy spell continuing on over next weekend and beyond but with a notable rise of pressure across the South for a time at the end of the run offering a drier period down here. Nevertheeless, before that happens there will be plenty of rain and showers to be shared by all in temperatures close to average.

 

The GFS Ensembles look very unsettled again tonight with average temperatures for many and rain and wind at times for all areas at times over the period perhaps more bias towards the South at times.

 

The Jet stream continues to be modelled to flow over the Atlntic Ocean and across the UK for the foreseeable future.

 

In Summary at the expense of sounding like a broken record there remains little sign of any significant change to the weather over the next two weeks. There also remains little sign of any cold weather for anyone after the cold blip over the next 24 hours has passed. With winds in the West most areas will achieve average temperatures at least for much of the time, sometimes offset by the strong breeze. A few drier and brighter periods will occur at times and these will be most likely in the South.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[Polar Maritime]

I didn't quite hear that Bary95...

Edited November 3, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[essexweather]

Tonight's ensemble from the 12Z ECM: http://www.essexweather.com/outlook.html

 

Firm agreement of the mild, damp weather hanging on for the next 14 days. Still hope for the final week of November

[Newberryone]

Bring on the classic blocking setups, tired already of this atlantic rubbish!! Lets get the Green and Yellow colours maybe even reds up to Greenland and Scandi. Cannot wait until Frosty can really express his brilliance of emphasising those Beasterly and Northerly setups just like he did with those summer scorcher charts.

Nothing would please me more too for this to happen but unfortunately every time one's hopes are raised in FI charts like these appear hence injecting a harsh dose of reality into proceedings

[nick sussex]

From a cold perspective the only remotely interesting aspect of the charts is that ridge in the east Pacific, apart from that perhaps holding out hopes for a change down the line its very much as you were, with any retrogession of the limpet Euro high meeting a swift end. Never enough upstream amplification or a lifting out of those low heights to the north to provide much interest for those looking for a taste of winter, overall just very typical autumnal fare.

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm

 

The pub run is trying to come to my way of thinking, at least a surface ridge appears to the north east, but it's not strong enough and gets pushed away in FI, but something to watch perhaps.

Edited November 3, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Cheshire Freeze]

Did someone mention the possibility of some better looking FIs on the way??

 

 

PV far less intense

 

Edited November 3, 2013 by CreweCold