Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Richie V]

Crewe, steady on there dear boy Not only is this the woppy 18z, those charts are further out than a cure for cancer. Intreasting tho.

Ric

[damianslaw]

The pattern remains very much a zonal outlook for the next few days, however, we are in a very different set up to where we were 2 weeks ago. We have lost the long fetch southwesterly/southerly airstreams and are now in a much more typical westerly flow pattern with the azores high ridging north west on occasion to pull down polar maritime air for northern parts in particular.

 

It is a very typical outlook for early November - a period of the year hardly renowned for being settled, and therefore not a time when we really should be expecting the atlantic to crank down a gear or two, indeed it is the time of year when it begins to enter full throttle ready for its early winter onslaught - with its peak force often setting in during early December.

 

Longer term - every chance of at least a temporary settled spell, courtesy most likely of heights ridging in from the south or a mid atlantic block set up.

 

I am interested in the pacific ridge though and what it may mean for the position of the polar vortex in time - it could easily split it in two allowing stronger build of heights to our NE - certainly something we should be keeping an eye on in the coming days.

 

 

[That ECM]

The pattern remains very much a zonal outlook for the next few days, however, we are in a very different set up to where we were 2 weeks ago. We have lost the long fetch southwesterly/southerly airstreams and are now in a much more typical westerly flow pattern with the azores high ridging north west on occasion to pull down polar maritime air for northern parts in particular. It is a very typical outlook for early November - a period of the year hardly renowned for being settled, and therefore not a time when we really should be expecting the atlantic to crank down a gear or two, indeed it is the time of year when it begins to enter full throttle ready for its early winter onslaught - with its peak force often setting in during early December. Longer term - every chance of at least a temporary settled spell, courtesy most likely of heights ridging in from the south or a mid atlantic block set up. I am interested in the pacific ridge though and what it may mean for the position of the polar vortex in time - it could easily split it in two allowing stronger build of heights to our NE - certainly something we should be keeping an eye on in the coming days.

With regards to a more settled period you speak of, this modeled in the ECM run this morning. UKMO , only going out t144, could progress in a similar way. Here's hoping.

[Captain Shortwave]

Hmm

 

 

The pub run is trying to come to my way of thinking, at least a surface ridge appears to the north east, but it's not strong enough and gets pushed away in FI, but something to watch perhaps.

ECM giving this a try this morning, the Atlantic train at least on this model seems to be getting squeezed out here

Add to that a more amplified pattern developing

Some hope there, but still no real cold charts as of yet

Edited November 4, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

anyone note the way the trough drops south at day 6.  in a months time, that would allow for some wintry scenes, despite a generally non exciting zonal outlook having been shown. this dropping trough is a continuation of the theme from the past few months.

[lorenzo]

anyone note the way the trough drops south at day 6.  in a months time, that would allow for some wintry scenes, despite a generally non exciting zonal outlook having been shown. this dropping trough is a continuation of the theme from the past few months.

 

Certainly a repeat of the period into the second third of October, also saw that trough wanting to dive bomb the continent. Here is the composite for October, the September one shows the main feature being the Scandi High.

[Frosty.]

Lots of rather chilly, very unsettled and windy weather on the Ecm 00z op run, cold enough for wintry weather on scottish higher hills and mountains, even a risk of wintry ppn across the hills further south by the end of the week and there will be frosts in the quieter interludes, as time goes by, the balance of power shifts to anticyclonic conditions gaining the upper hand but not without some unsettled weather too, with the rise in pressure comes an increasing risk of frosts with temps overnight dipping below freezing which is what we have this morning in much of the north and west..the weather charts are taking on a more wintry flavour with the 528 dam line encroaching into the north of the uk at times.

Edited November 4, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

ECM once more showing something more settled trying to develop as we move to mid month

 

 

And the ECM ensemble also shows a rise in pressure from the south west

 

[Summer Sun]

Latest from Gibby

 

All models show another week of Westerly winds and changeable weather with spells of rain on Eastward moving fronts crossing over the UK periodically, In between breezy Westerly winds will bring a mix of sunshine and showers and overall teamperatures will remain close to average for early November.

 

GFS then brings another area of low pressure across the UK at the weekend with spells of rain and showers making for another disappointing weekend across Britain with prolonged dry weather at a premium. through the rest of it's run changes will be slow with a changeable theme continuing with further rain for all at times. However having said that there will be some longer drier spells developing in the South despite breezy conditions continuing as pressure becomes rather higher than of late down here with temperatures always average if not somewhat above at times.

 

UKMO today shows Low pressure crossing East over the South of Britain on Sunday with strong winds and heavy rain a feature for a time again. Although no access to their 168hr chart I would suggest it probably shows drier and brighter conditions under a ridge of High pressure will take place early next week when it could become somewhat colder.

 

GEM does indeed show such a ridge crossing the UK next Monday when drier and brighter weather will be shared for all for a time. However, Northern areas quickly return to unsettled and windy weather at times but with a large High developing over Northern France Southern areas will become dry and rather mild later next week.

 

NAVGEM shows a strong Westerly flow across Britain seeing us out of next weekend and into next week. Some rain must be expected from this pattern, chiefly towards the North and West but with pressure in excess of 1025mbs developing across the South next week any rain will be patchy and drizzly in nature in the South with high pressure to the South weakening any fronts. It would be relatively mild too.

 

ECM today also shows higher pressure developing close to Southern or SW Britain next week with rain bearing fronts held more actively towards the North of the UK with longer drier spells in the South where only occasional lighter rain seems likely between dry and fine weather with the risk of patchy mist, fog and slight frost.

 

The GFS Ensembles show a very ordinary bunch this morning with very average temperatures maintained through the period with occasional rainfall shown for all at times. With winds in the West for most of the time cold weather still seems a long way away from any output this morning.

 

The Jet Stream continues to show little change to it's current trajectory over the next week or so offering therefore little respite in the Atlantic feed of air around High pressure well to the South and low pressure to the North.

 

In Summary the weather remains very unsettled through this week with plenty of rain and showers about over the UK through the period. All models show very breezy Westerly winds for the most part. In Week 2 conditions look to be characterized as more 'changeable' rather than 'unsettled' with more occasional rain rather than frequent rain events taking place, especially in the South in response of High pressure building close to the South. With this happening there seems little chance of any cold weather at all with just the risk of patchy fog and ground frost over the South should High pressure making landfall over these areas next week but with daytime temperatures recovering well.

 

http://www.norton-ra...is(2859336).htm

[shedhead]

From a cold perspective the only remotely interesting aspect of the charts is that ridge in the east Pacific, apart from that perhaps holding out hopes for a change down the line its very much as you were, with any retrogession of the limpet Euro high meeting a swift end. Never enough upstream amplification or a lifting out of those low heights to the north to provide much interest for those looking for a taste of winter, overall just very typical autumnal fare.

Perhaps you should have waited for todays T+384hr Nick...you know how accurate it is when showing potential cold....

 

Edit: I don't believe it....it's changed completely.

 

 

 

Edited November 4, 2013 by shedhead

[Summer Sun]

Comparing the 06z run yesterday and this mornings 00z run from GFS its not quite as cold for the next 8 days especially in the south even in the north it remains below average but not as much as it did yesterday morning

 

00z today left, 06z yesterday right

 

[draztik]

No big change in trend towards a more neutral NAO, with the ensembles indicating a gradual fall. Also, the AO is also showing a fall as we head toward the last third of the month, with the GFS ens more regressive than the GEM.

Edited November 4, 2013 by draztik

[Gibby]

Today's ECM mean chart for Day 10 is about as far as you can get for any prospective cold across the UK. Still at least rainfall will be less widespread than of late across the South.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Reem2401.gif

 

 

[Frosty.]

There are lots and lots of cold and unsettled options among the GEFS 00z perturbations this morning, lots of Northerly outbreaks in various timeframes with wintry ppn and not just for the hills either... lets hope one of them verifies rather than a return of boring benign stagnation.

[Polar Maritime]

Yes Frosty, A very traditional outlook from the chart's with plenty of PM air encroaching the UK at times giving sleet and snow over the hills from the Pennines North. We had our first sleet here yesterday.

 

And all but the South retaining just below average temps, only a few weeks left now until winter proper takes hold.

Edited November 4, 2013 by Polar Maritime

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean paints a rather chilly and very unsettled picture with only very brief flat atlantic ridges separating us from the next low sweeping in off the atlantic on a generally wnw/ese axis so the air would be cold enough across the high ground of scotland in particular for a wintry mix, temps closer to average across the south from time to time but colder air spreading southeast to all areas at times.. next sunday there is a chance of sleet or wet snow across the hills of central and southern uk too, in any quieter interludes there will be overnight frosts, as this morning...lots of wet, windy and quite chilly weather dominates the next 10 days on the ecm 0z ens mean. 

[draztik]

The temp anomaly/ GFS ens, from 04/11 to 09/11 shows much of the UK below average, with only the South bucking the trend.

as we approach mid month, the 5 day average indicates a below average setup for a lot of Western Europe.

[phil nw.]

The temp anomaly/ GFS ens, from 04/11 to 09/11 shows much of the UK below average, with only the South bucking the trend.

as we approach mid month, the 5 day average indicates a below average setup for a lot of Western Europe.

Those temperature charts underline how the UK is now receiving more colder air into the zonal mix.

A westerly setup indeed but often rather cold especially further north where i would imagine the scottish highlands will remain snowcovered in the next week or 2.

 

Warks temperatures graph show a lot of single figures and it would be somewhat colder in some northern locations.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 06z shows the south starting to recover temperature wise over the next 8 days, whilst the midlands north stays at or below average with the exception of some north western coasts

 

Edited November 4, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z mean shows the very disturbed pattern with spells of rain and strong winds followed by sunshine and blustery, heavy showers continuing until the end of this week, then the 6z mean indicates high pressure building from the south/sw into next week, at least across the south but with the north of the uk continuing unsettled, then towards the end of the run it turns generally unsettled across all areas, interestingly the bbc experts are saying the outlook for the rest of november is for the blustery and rather chilly unsettled conditions to continue for most of the time with heavy showers, sometimes falling as snow on northern hills / mountains and longer periods of rain with strong winds at times, occasional quieter interludes when widespread frosts would occur but they don't think that high pressure will have any impact next week, indeed, high pressure never gets a mention...there are some wintry GEFS 06z perturbations again in the mid to longer range, similar to the 00z.

Edited November 4, 2013 by Frosty.

[legritter]

Iv only had time for a quick gander at charts and its looking like some of the north atlantic cold air as our island in its sight ,no means a big deal but nice to know that we could be gearing up for something .It will certainly keep us posters happy for now .

[nick sussex]

Certainly given a choice I'd rather the ECM was on the money than the GFS which looks like a one way ticket to the continued status quo, the ECM at least lifts out some of those low heights to the north and could allow high pressure to take more charge its NH profile at least allows for the chance of something a little colder and drier. The GFS needs a large dose of fiction and a team of writers to get to anything remotely seasonal. It's really not until the last frames out in deep fantasy land that it delivers anything remotely interesting in terms of its NH profile.

I think the only real possibility here to develop something more interesting from a cold perspective is to get some more amplification upstream helped by that Pacific ridge, this downstream might develop some deeper more favourably orientated troughing off the ne USA, it could help some retrogression of the high to the sw.

At least in the more reliable timeframe not much change but we'll see this evening whether the models build on the ECM trend on days 9 and 10.

[gottolovethisweather]

GFS 06z shows the south starting to recover temperature wise over the next 8 days, whilst the midlands north stays at or below average with the exception of some north western coasts

 

 

That chart would look lovely in Summer, Summer Sun, when I'd be more than happy for the Temperatures to recover.  I suppose I could accept a warming if it at least arrived with something much sunnier and drier, much as today. But I find it somehow ironic, how a recovery is what's needed, given that we are entering the naturally colder season, judging by my calendar.

 

I'm liking the ensemble's trend as shown in Phil nw's previous posting, with my attention brought to the period around the 11th November, when I think there could be some wintriness about, albeit just a passing thought at this range. Nothing too wintry then, just yet in the reliable but at least it won't mostly be as mild by day and perhaps we can further restore some normality with overnight temperatures too.

Edited November 4, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

The latest met office update is forecasting the largely unsettled and breezy ( sometimes windy) pattern to carry on for the rest of november, especially across the north and west of the uk, the south & east eventually having the driest and brightest weather with overnight fog interspersed with occasional bouts of unsettled weather, however, for most of the uk for most of the time it looks unsettled and rather chilly, especially across the north of the uk where it will be cold enough at times for the showers and more prolonged precipitation to turn wintry on the higher hills with snow across the scottish mountains, the southeastern half of england having temperatures generally closer to average. This all ties in with what the Ecm 00z ensemble mean shows for the next 10 days and then carries it on for the following few weeks, it appears as though the GEFS 06z mean is rather out of sync with it's more settled spell next week...unsettled to continue.

Edited November 4, 2013 by Frosty.

[carinthian]

Good Evening,

 Had long chat with our forecast experts today. The trend is much much in line with the UKMO.  Unsettled for most of this month with the polar front meandering along 50 N. So quite a bit of rainfall with the colder pulse further north. Probably more rainfall than expected in Southern Britian than indicated by the UKMO. For us in Central Europe not good for snowfall with milder than average temperatures forecast for the rest of this month. However, they are now fairly confident of a substantial rise of pressure near to the UK/ Western Europe by the start of December which would allow colder flow into the Alpine regions but not necessary in the UK , but a drier spell may well be welcome over there by then.

 C