Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[mountain shadow]

That remains the only positive Ian. If it continues, probability increases of a northerly as pressure rises behind any low pressure moving East.

A mid latitude block west of the UK is not a bad starting point.

[shedhead]

low tempertures on Saturday as low as 2 or 3c in midlands northern England wouldn't mind betting that there could be some snow on hills in these areas  something to keep an eye on. speaking of the GFS looks like there could be some hard frosts overnight if that high comes early next week.

Absolutely no chance of 'hard frosts' IF those charts verify, unless by hard you mean close to zero.

[Met4Cast]

Why so much pessimism? This is possibly one of the best charts the models have thrown out so far

 

 

Think everyone needs to take a step back and relax a little, the models are full of hints a pattern change is coming. The huge amount of scatter on the ensembles for the last few days being one of the main signs. 

 

Whether we get biting cold and snow is yet to be seen, but certainly a change to cooler weather looks likely to be on the way. The first "cold attack" isn't likely to amount to much and will probably be a toppler Northerly sometime next week, I can definitely see the second bite later in the month offering something a little more noteworthy, though.

[DR(S)NO]

low tempertures on Saturday as low as 2 or 3c in midlands northern England wouldn't mind betting that there could be some snow on hills in these areas  something to keep an eye on. speaking of the GFS looks like there could be some hard frosts overnight if that high comes early next week.

Yes WS...speaking from a purely imby perspective......this month has been cold so far.3 frosts registered, temps not gone above 8cince the 1st....and gust westerly winds making it feel very chilly indeed.So,perhaps not a Cold Spell ,so to speak......but its definitely cold oop north atm!!And a few frosty nights to come.

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run is very action packed, lots of rather cold weather and some mild days, a lot of rain and gales but cold enough at times for snow on northern hills and southern hills, some quieter interludes with overnight frosts and later next week, a day or so of fine weather for the south/se as high pressure migrates across southern areas before pushing away through mainland europe. It's a generally very unsettled run but there is something for everyone at various points, it's certainly not a boring run and towards the end of FI, the pattern becomes very interesting with much more amplified potential with high pressure to the west and lows dive bombing southeastwards with increasingly cold air flooding in behind, hopefully this will be the trend beyond mid month. 

[legritter]

Yes possible signs still there for something of a change come mid month ,high pressure certainly getting in on the act but where it sets up shop still not certain at this stage .i do like todays 120hr Fax ,those 5 high pressure centres across the top of the chart telling big fat high to our south either to scarper or come and enjoy the party UP HERE .So good signs for us posters and all to play for ,PS our Grit bins in road were topped up today ,all i need now is to twist the councills arm to switch our lamp post light back on ,catch up later ,

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean has really toned down the anticyclonic influence next week which it was so bullish about on last night's 12z mean, on this run, the core of the anticyclone remains centred well to the southwest of the uk and all we see here is a weak ridge extending across the south which doesn't stop the rather cool westerly flow with it's showers and longer spells of rain, it's an undulating pattern with a wave-like motion, a generally westerly upper flow which actually has polar origins, indeed, the air would be occasionally cold enough for wintry ppn across northern hills & mountains, and for overnight frosts in the few brief quieter interludes between depressions, later on, the mean indicates a significantly colder blast could be swinging down from the northwest not far beyond T+240 hours, so apart from sunday night and monday being mild, temperatures look generally below par for much of the time, this will be exacerbated by the strength of the winds at times, increasing the wind chill factor, making max temps of 6-9 celsius feel considerably colder.

Edited November 6, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

NAO remains positive till mid month beyond mid month we have a fair amount of scatter so no clear signals yet (more scatter does appear to go negative but we need to wait a bit longer yet before we can be certain) until mid month we'll continue to see westerly winds over the UK

 

[UV-RAY]

Yes WS...speaking from a purely imby perspective......this month has been cold so far.3 frosts registered, temps not gone above 8cince the 1st....and gust westerly winds making it feel very chilly indeed.

So,perhaps not a Cold Spell ,so to speak......but its definitely cold oop north atm!!

And a few frosty nights to come.image.jpgimage.jpgimage.jpg

Indeed, it's been anything but mild or average round these parts with temps coming in at 2 or 3c below the seasonal average by day and the outlook IMO looks to be more of the same for most of the time.

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 06z perturbations show lots of cold solutions in the T+168, T+240 and T+384 hours timeframes, the GEFS 06z mean also looks encouraging in the above three timelines. They show potential for incoming arctic blasts or polar maritime or both and this would mean a chance of snow showers by mid month or during the second half of november with widespread frosts, in other words, an early bonus taste of winter, nice charts here for all coldies looking for a change.  

Edited November 6, 2013 by Frosty.

[Tom Jarvis]

I think the 12z GFS is going to give something cold in FI as the PV is allot weaker and there is high pressure is building in the Greenland area and a ridge disrupting the vortex in the pacific. 

hello Greenland high

[Met4Cast]

Sausage high anyone? PV obliterated on the 12z GFS and split perfectly

 

Edited November 6, 2013 by Daniel Smith

[Tom Jarvis]

sausage high incoming

cold   

and look at the cold to the north east   but FI  

[SE Blizzards]

Can't wait to hear Frosty's analysis of the GFS 12Z. I feel a bit of a ramp coming up...

Edited November 6, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[phil nw.]

Keep on topic please chaps.

The Daily Mail post had to be removed.

Press headlines and speculation for other threads not here.

 

Ta.

Edited November 6, 2013 by phil nw.

[bluearmy]

dont think thats a sausage high fellas. the sausage high is more w/e, not n/s (and it needs to be cut off with the jet below). thats a mid atlantic ridge. (though it could well become a sausage).

 

my attention is taken by this propensity to bring a cold icncursion as we head into the final third of november. there are a fair number of sub 40f ecm ens members for london around that date.

Edited November 6, 2013 by bluearmy

[Purga]

All eyes on FI then and ECM of course.

[Snowman.]

Would've undercut.

 

[Gaz1985]

I wouldn't get too excited with the GFS 12z - it's 2 weeks away... hardly a chance of it verifying. 

[Summer Sun]

Back in the reliable time frame UKMO shows some welcome drier weather developing across the south

 

 

Back to a more typical set up low pressure to the north and high pressure to the south

[SE Blizzards]

I wouldn't get too excited with the GFS 12z - it's 2 weeks away... hardly a chance of it verifying. 

 

Ah maybe so, but i have seen u post charts in the past that have been 2 weeks away when its showing 'the milder options', so why can't the coldies do the same when 'colder options' are showing? Nobody is saying they will verify. They are just simply commenting on whats being shown

 

Brrrrrrr!!

Edited November 6, 2013 by SE Blizzards

[mpkio2]

I wouldn't get too excited with the GFS 12z - it's 2 weeks away... hardly a chance of it verifying. 

If I remember straight, it was two weeks before the models picked up the change in November 2010 to much colder weather in December 2010. So you never know...it MIGHT verify. But still, its all up for grabs.

 

Gotta love the FL in GFS 12z!

Higho!

Edited November 6, 2013 by mpkio2

[Snowman.]

I wouldn't get too excited with the GFS 12z - it's 2 weeks away... hardly a chance of it verifying. 

 

Might as well seeing as the next week or so its going be boring.

[radiohead]

All eyes on FI then and ECM of course.

 

The GFS is teasing at something happening beyond the range of the ECM at the moment. Even if the GFS maintains this theme over the coming runs it's not something we would see on the ECM T240 for a while.

[Tom Jarvis]

The GFS is teasing at something happening beyond the range of the ECM at the moment. Even if the GFS maintains this theme over the coming runs it's not something we would see on the ECM T240 for a while.

but we can look out for  heights in the pacific disrupting the vortex which could lead to something the gfs is showing in fi