Model Output Discussion 1st Nov.2013

[Isolated Frost]

Perfection from the EC; best chart I've seen since March or beforehand. Very interesting times ahead, as Nick says, general pattern > local details... but looking at H5 and NWP recently, reason to be excited.

[Summer Sun]

-6 850's extend across more of the UK -8 850's remain up in Scotland

 

 

High pressure starting to move across the north of the UK

 

[Matty M]

Where are the ramps.

Stunning ECMWF

[Panayiotis]

Now the ECM is reflecting my thoughts on something more interesting following next week, will be curious if it develops it further

[Man With Beard]

T192 is a classic winter chart, lots of snow threat on that one. Anyway that HP can bridge over the top of us by T216?

[tight isobar]

Indeed...how she ends will be more than worthy of take note (ECM)

[Barry12]

And to say people were predicting a mild November...wow.

 

 

 

Edited November 13, 2013 by Barry95

[Summer Sun]

Where are the ramps.

Stunning ECMWF

 

Don't worry Frosty will be along soon

 

t216 sees the high building for the north of the UK

 

 

Coldest uppers starting to ease

 

Edited November 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Panayiotis]

Its doing it! Will it reflect my thoughts completely?

Edited November 13, 2013 by Panayiotis

[AWD]

Don't worry Frosty will be along soont216 sees the high building for the north of the UKColdest uppers starting to ease

Look what's coming down from the NE though Gav. That high can't sink because of the low heights digging right down into the Med. For the time of year and the fact it's very much tropospheric led, it really doesn't get much better than today's EC 0z & 12z output.

[Barry12]

Its doing it! Will it reflect my thoughts completely?

 

I hope you and others are right

 

Edited November 13, 2013 by Barry95

[Summer Sun]

The high edges a bit further south at t240

 

 

The 850's continue to ease

 

Edited November 13, 2013 by Summer Sun

[Panayiotis]

Theres your easterly!

 

Its not as cold, but notice the PV dropping down in the far right of the image...

[Cheshire Freeze]

The high edges a bit further south at t240

 

 

The 850's continue to ease

 

 

There's your typical holding pattern Gav. You'd think eventually the HP would pull NW.

[SMU]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111312/ECH1-240.GIF?13-0

 

I will make a call & say thats not the way it will go, however either way its a great run-

 

S

[bluearmy]

The latter stages of tonight's ECM op is plausible wrt the extended ens. The past few 12z's have not been.

[AWD]

Theres your easterly!

Its not as cold, but notice the PV dropping down in the far right of the image...

That high can't sink with the low heights to our south. You'll probably end up with a repeat scenario of the PV dropping to our east and the high ridging west/north west again. All speculative at this stage though of course.

Doesn't matter about 850hpa temps 8/9/10 days away as these will vary a lot at that timeframe.

[Guest Skorge]

Latest Met Office outlook for this period. 

 

UK Outlook for Monday 18 Nov 2013 to Wednesday 27 Nov 2013:

Cloud and rain across the southeast will clear through Monday morning, with colder conditions following from the northwest. By midweek, it is likely that most parts will become colder than of late, with more widespread overnight frosts and temperatures a little below average by day. Remaining unsettled, with showers or more persistent spells of rain. These may be locally heavy, turning wintry over the hills, and perhaps to low levels in the north. It is likely to be windy at times, perhaps with gales across northern areas. Thereafter, conditions look set to remain rather unsettled and chilly, with spells of rain or showers. These may again turn wintry over hills, and to low levels in the north. The best of any settled and drier weather most likely in central areas.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 13 Nov 2013

[tight isobar]

850 hpa, eases end run...but is be sceptical!, the alignment of HP to my eye can only influence, a deeper onsurge, or continuation or devolpment...IMO. watch further runs...

[Panayiotis]

That high can't sink with the low heights to our south. You'll probably end up with a repeat scenario of the PV dropping to our east and the high ridging west/north west again. All speculative at this stage though of course.Doesn't matter about 850hpa temps 8/9/10 days away as these will vary a lot at that timeframe.

I wasnt commenting on if the high will sink? 

[Tom Jarvis]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf/runs/2013111312/ECH1-240.GIF?13-0 I will make a call & say thats not the way it will go, however either way its a great run- S

What way will it go steve. Just want to know your thinking will happen

[Jason T]

Latest Met Office outlook for this period. 

 

UK Outlook for Monday 18 Nov 2013 to Wednesday 27 Nov 2013:

Cloud and rain across the southeast will clear through Monday morning, with colder conditions following from the northwest. By midweek, it is likely that most parts will become colder than of late, with more widespread overnight frosts and temperatures a little below average by day. Remaining unsettled, with showers or more persistent spells of rain. These may be locally heavy, turning wintry over the hills, and perhaps to low levels in the north. It is likely to be windy at times, perhaps with gales across northern areas. Thereafter, conditions look set to remain rather unsettled and chilly, with spells of rain or showers. These may again turn wintry over hills, and to low levels in the north. The best of any settled and drier weather most likely in central areas.

Updated: 1151 on Wed 13 Nov 2013

 

 

Welcome to the thread Skorge. Good timing. 

[radiohead]

It's a shame there doesn't seem to be colder air to tap into, because these are some very nice synoptics on the ECM. Interesting model watching ahead for sure.

[Chris K]

I must admit I certainly didn't expect to start dribbling so soon from a model output.

Let's hope outputs like this continue with more cross model agreement

[SE Blizzards]

Fantastic run from the ECM from a coldies perspective.

 

Mildies reaction to latest output...

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qYXKrpHUqFQ