Model Output Discussion 13/11/13 >

[Catacol]

The question must be asked why their website which is so promoted by forecasters is so different to forecasts John, sorry but they shouldn't be. 

 

BFTP

 

Blast - what do you mean here? Are you saying that their forecasts should match the operational runs of the models? Surely their output DOES do that .... its just that we dont get access to extended Mogreps which is the model they trust.

[Snowman.]

Nearly all GEFS ensembles show that PV is taking a serious beating which in my head does scream a non-stop zonal train.

 

 

This is the warmest chart at 192.

 

 

 

Still the warmest chart same ensemble member but the PV is almost dead and there is plenty of chances there.

 

If I was a betting man I would say around Christmas is the most likely time for the westerlies to return.

 

Then it will be back to square one from there.

 

From CURRENT models the overall trend after next week is cool and chilly with showers at times not a great bit of precip around from then on its anyone's guess, but the main thing is the PV remains disrupted as we head through November into the Start of December.

[Paul]

Can we keep it to the models please - the clue is in the title 

[MR EXTREMES]

im running through all the models watching the animations what I see is the mid alantic high to far south and on nearly all the models its the same,

its allowing low pressure systems to run over the top eventually there is nowhere for the high pressure to go it just pivots around its awful but was so close to amazing.

 

but hey that's the models.

[Snowman.]

Somehow stumbled upon the good old NOGAPS model and found its ensembles suite.

 

[legritter]

We are all blessed with so much data ,charts, being able to get meteorological information at the click of a mouse .fantastic advances have been made over the past years BUT past that 7 day 168 hrs everything then starts to get very complicated .every single chart we see is subject to error .some of my best snowfalls in 2010 only showed up on fax charts 24 hrs out ,i am fairly confident with the extended outlook staying on the cold  side and todays charts by tomorrow could be back on the side of cold lovers .i do like the last 3 frames of ECM tonight ,could be wrong or could be right ,but they are showing for a reason and could very easily disappear and pop up again in a few days .And today is Mid November so gang remember another two weeks of autumn then we have 282 modell runs of ECM and MET OFFICE and double GFS so plenty of nail biting times to come .I personally think the weather in northern Hemisphere is about to get interesting and tricky ,so hang on in there and lets enjoy .I always expect the unexpected in our science and that helps me overcome those prozack feelings ,,could be an interesting 120hr FAX this evening ,take care all  

[The Northern Ramper]

JH is the voice of reason, another great set of output today for the time of year, let's not forget it's still autumn for two more weeks. I see an arctic blast for the first half of next week, slowly weakening by thursday, at least for northern uk as atlantic high pressure ridges across scotland later next week with brighter but frosty conditions but continuing cold and unsettled further south and east. Then the possibility of another wintry reload by the end of next week with the cold pattern continually renewing itself well into december.

My challenge to you Frosty (if you choose to accept) is to not mention Autumn, November or time of year for the rest of the weekend.

[MR EXTREMES]

cfs looks intresting I wonder how rated that model is anyone know?

[Captain Shortwave]

I stated a couple of days ago that the shortwaves over the west Atlantic were going to be a pain in the backside, not on an outcome for us, but for the model output. Given how in the summer the models could be way off the mark with these at just 3 days out, then I have to say that this soap opera has still got another 24 hours to run. Things could go wrong, or suddenly a high latitude block could appear out of nowhere.

I feel a more relaxed approach should be heeded for the time being, namely because the depth and longevity of the initial cold snap will vary more than it should given the time frames involved, let alone what happens afterwards. 

Worst case scenario is probably a UK high, which to be honest and I'm sure many will disagree with me (you know who you are ), is a scenario I would take that over Atlantic wind and rain any day.

Edited November 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[bluearmy]

Apparently, if i say that the ens have been leading the ops on the upcoming two weeks then its banter, a moan or a ramp??? Whats all that about?

I was merely trying to calm a few nerves after the 12z ops. What have they done over the past week to earn our trust?

Some consistency over a few runs might change that but for the time being, the ens (especially the ecm) should be where our attention lies.

[Cloud 10]

Interesting to note that the NAEFS at day 5 out-performs the GFS op run.

 

 

 

 

Who knows what the pub run is about to churn out. 

[AWD]

NE rather than NW?

[MR EXTREMES]

gfs 18z t12 looks amazing already just joking trying to lighten the mood it could well be many things that have thrown it all up in the air I for one am disappointed with todays models but I think the most disappointing part was the downgrades for nextweek  although atleast theres no mild muck.

 

heres to the 18z

[Captain Shortwave]

One of the other posters in the regional thread has found the reason why we can't get heights into Greenland

There is a monster currently residing in Greenland eating all the wonderful WAA

*shivers* those teeth 

 

Thanks chartviewer for finding this

Edited November 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[pip22]

I am pretty sure that the models just downgraded just to keep us coldies excitement away. I hope it will change for the better tomorrow for us coldies. Fingers crossed.

Edited November 15, 2013 by pip22

[Paul]

18z rolling now and we've got some shiny newly updated servers to keep the forum running nice and smoothly, so let's try to keep it friendly please

 

Latest GFS

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

[Captain Shortwave]

18z rolling now and we've got some shiny newly updated servers to keep the forum running nice and smoothly, so let's try to keep it friendly please

 

Latest GFS

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

Unless the servers downgrade 

Sorry couldn't resist that one liner.

GFS out to T60 and already there is better amplification towards Greenland

Previous run

Edited November 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Beaufort12]

Early stages yet but looking better for my location already concerning the white stuff

[Cheshire Freeze]

Out to 60 hours and the GFS is ever so slightly sharper with the jet to the west of the UK. Ok, some people may wonder why such a small change should be pointed out.....but a sharper jet profile sees the high ever so slightly further west and should allow a bit more cold to infiltrate with this first bite Tuesday and Wednesday.

[weatherguy]

18z looking more amplified at +72 hours

 

edit: oops, realised I haven't really added anything to what has already been said  

Edited November 15, 2013 by weatherguy

[Jonan92]

In our Spanish forum it has always been said that 00Z and 12Z runs are more realible because they include more data (the data gathered by the radiosondes - weather ballons). For example, in all my year watching the GFS runs I have noticed that in 06z and 18z runs it moves everything a little bit to the west, whereas in 00z and 12z runs it moves everything a little bit to the east again.

 

Any thougths about this?

[Panayiotis]

Yes 18z much better!

 

Vertical isobars giving us the northerly on the 18Z instead of the tilted isobars in the 12z which gave us the NW.

As a result at 96hrs we have -8C reaching the south and I wonder if that will low will pay us a visit?

 

Edited November 15, 2013 by Panayiotis

[Captain Shortwave]

Out to 60 hours and the GFS is ever so slightly sharper with the jet to the west of the UK. Ok, some people may wonder why such a small change should be pointed out.....but a sharper jet profile sees the high ever so slightly further west and should allow a bit more cold to infiltrate with this first bite Tuesday and Wednesday.

Exactly, the consequences are huge, next Tuesday the previous output had the -8C isotherm grazing North East Scotland, this run it's already down to the North Midlands and advancing

Areas close to exposed coasts could wake up to a dusting Wednesday morning based on this 

Edited November 15, 2013 by Captain shortwave

[Barry12]

brrrrrrrr

 

[Wilxy]

Looking like a upgrade in the shorter term for now!