Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Support for heights rising to our northwest from the models this morning, albeit deep in FI

 

GEFS Day 16 0z

 

 

ECM EPS Ens 0z / Heights and Temp Anomaly [day 15]

support seems to be growing for early December ..... I will take a punt right now we will come out about 2deg below average for DEC . Allowing for the sods law milder spell around Christmas day lol... Interesting times though ....

Edited November 22, 2013 by snowmadchrisuk

[MR EXTREMES]

I don't think that's likely ian when theres a lot of low pressure sweeping over the top and around into Europe infact I would be 100000% certain this will and is not likely to be the trend and if the northerly projected comes of then that's even better

[legritter]

Certainly some signs today of a movement south of some cold air perhaps next weekend or just after .this afternoons GFS run could show some tantalising runs ,but current charts on modells keeping us with high pressure for some time yet .im sure come early december we could be seeing a pattern change of sorts .so still plenty of interest in the modells to keep us occupied .

[Tamara]

well not sure it will be a snowfest. But the bartlet zonal tosh some where loving to promote last night was a load of rubbish. I for one dont even look twice at one or two guys on hear who only ever want to wind people up. If you look at the bigger picture ie north hemisphere pattern its easy to see the outlook wasnt flat. A recurring pacific ridge . A weak jet stream . And a high pressure dominated atlantic is anything but zonal. Yes we have a strong pv . But its stretched and disrupted maybe even split , so cold outbreaks from the northwest seems to be a fair assessment , which can bring snow showers to many western and central areas when the airs cold enough.

Its going to take a lot to disrupt the polar vortex for the first half of winter, at least, this year.

 

A lot of these future forecasts for sure need various things to go absolutely right to actually become reality. We have already seen the models be too optimistic with the stratosphere forecasts and over amplifying the current pattern we see right now, so we must be very cautious of these latest FI forecasts. The overall background pattern for the foreseeable future is not 'cold friendly' otherwise as I see it, and this years polar vortex is going to need an especially sustained attack on it from the troposphere as far as the coming month is concerned at least. Its more a case than last winter that what needs to go right, has to go right. In that respect we can think of last December and the promise that showed with a more favourable and condusive profile over the polar field than this year and yet that still flattered to deceive until after the festive period.

 

This is not intended as negative - simply trying to be realistic and keep expectations in perspective .

[snowking]

Support for heights rising to our northwest from the models this morning, albeit deep in FI

 

GEFS Day 16 0z

 

 

ECM EPS Ens 0z / Heights and Temp Anomaly [day 15]

 

Beat me to it!

 

Interestingly if we take MJO Phase 4 (roughly projected phase for 10 days time) days from previous years with amplitude <1, in West QBO years and with ENSO Neutral conditions, we get this plot:

 

 

Not really a million miles away from where we look set to be in reality with the notable height anomaly around the locale of the Aleutians. It has long been argued that MJO signals within the 'circle of doom' should be ignored, but I am finding more and more that if you isolate all other variables that could potentially affect global patterns in combination with both high and very low amplitude MJO phases the results really aren't too bad at all.

 

Incidentally the closest match period for these conditions is early December 1980:

 

 

SK

[MR EXTREMES]

tamara post don't fill me with a lot of confidence to be honest and suspect as suggested in her excellent post I think us coldies are going to be disappointed for a fair while yet I must admit the vortex profile this year is rather depressing.

 

although solar activity has dropped of remarkably fast I was starting to think we were going to have max on sunspots and SFI but its just dropped of hopefully this will continue.

 

the block in the north pacific might just help futher along into winter but I must admit the models do seem to be toying with us coldies.

Edited November 22, 2013 by emotional rollercoaster

[Tamara]

tamara post don't fill me with a lot of confidence to be honest and suspect as suggested in his excellent post I think us coldies are going to be disappointed for a fair while yet I must admit the vortex profile this year is rather depressing.

 

although solar activity has dropped of remarkably fast I was starting to think we were going to have max on sunspots and SFI but its just dropped of hopefully this will continue.

 

the block in the north pacific might just help futher along into winter but I must admit the models do seem to be toying with us coldies.

Spot the typo ..

 

There is always a glass half full approach and as snowking posts, then there are uncertain variables that can always make a difference

[Frank Trough]

tamara post don't fill me with a lot of confidence to be honest and suspect as suggested in his excellent post I think us coldies are going to be disappointed for a fair while yet I must admit the vortex profile this year is rather depressing.

 

i reckon you should change your name to "emotional rollercoaster"!!! 

 

I wonder if we might actually end up somewhere near this sort of chart for a fair part of early/mid December:

 

 

 

My thinking being that proper HLB might be a bit difficult (as reasoned by other posts) and the tendency we've seen recently for amplification to be a bit exaggerated couple with old chestnut of northerlies gradually being moved further east as they get near the reliable until they become northwesterlies at best.

 

I reckon December might be quite boring and pretty average. But that's just a guess and fortunately for anybody wanting cold i'm almost certainly wrong. Pattern change to something colder just in time for christmas?! wouldn't that be great? 

[MR EXTREMES]

thank pharaoh I like that idea thanks.

 

and yes nw flow is not out of the question and its worth noting with this kind of flow the north and west could enjoy something more seasonal going into December.

 

theres plenty more emotional turmoil to come im sure but I take what tamara is saying its worth taking a back seat and seeing if things will progress in favour.

 

new name new way of excepting the weather will do what the weather likes.

[shedhead]

Perhaps rather unusually I find myself agreeing entirely with Tamara's post, but it does also highlight what I suggested yesterday that given the overall pattern, a route to anything cold looks far more difficult to indentify and follow than a route to mild.

 

The recent failed reload that was due from the north this weekend, along with the much more eastward track eventually taken by Weds low (along with all the hostorical evidence) should serve as a good indicator that N plunges post 144hrs carry a significant health warning....whether they come from the GFS or ECM.

Edited November 22, 2013 by shedhead

[gottolovethisweather]

There has been some very good analysis in here of late and our spirits (well the coldies anyway) have been lifted by some positives signs as we enter early December. As JH alluded to earlier, he states there are signs of a change within the next seven to ten days, based on his upper profile analyses. So I advise we all hold our horses re: the unfolding pattern. Today's date is only the 22ND NOVEMBER.

 

I am not expecting too much from the outputs at this early stage but I do see a polar Northwesterly being the instigator of the breakdown when it eventually does arrive. This breakdown does appear to be getting pushed further back in time but that's no bad thing as we could do with Bottesford and his pals in the nearby continent to get much colder yet.

Edited November 22, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[johnholmes]

Beat me to it!

 

Interestingly if we take MJO Phase 4 (roughly projected phase for 10 days time) days from previous years with amplitude <1, in West QBO years and with ENSO Neutral conditions, we get this plot:

 

MJOp4.gif

 

Not really a million miles away from where we look set to be in reality with the notable height anomaly around the locale of the Aleutians. It has long been argued that MJO signals within the 'circle of doom' should be ignored, but I am finding more and more that if you isolate all other variables that could potentially affect global patterns in combination with both high and very low amplitude MJO phases the results really aren't too bad at all.

 

Incidentally the closest match period for these conditions is early December 1980:

 

 

SK

 

 

an interesting comment there SK about the 'orbit of doom', like that phrase, and the 500mb anomaly you post in the conditions current is interesting. I may make use of that later today as I try and look 15 days or so ahead?

[shedhead]

Spot the typo ..

 

There is always a glass half full approach and as snowking posts, then there are uncertain variables that can always make a difference

Not sure he has yet Tom ara....

[snowking]

an interesting comment there SK about the 'orbit of doom', like that phrase, and the 500mb anomaly you post in the conditions current is interesting. I may make use of that later today as I try and look 15 days or so ahead?

Absolutely, feel free to use it as needed John

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 06z op run is loaded with wintry reload potential from the end of next week onwards, as was the 00z but this run brings the daddy of Arctic blasts following the initial polar maritime burst, this just reinforces what I have been saying recently about cold potential during early December.

Edited November 22, 2013 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

The Gfs 06z op run is loaded with wintry reload potential from the end of next week onwards, as was the 00z but this run brings the daddy of Arctic blasts following the initial polar maritime burst, this just reinforces what I have been saying recently about cold potential during early December.

 

The met have picked up on this today as well

 

These unsettled conditions are expected to transfer southwards affecting most parts by early December. There is a low risk then some colder conditions may spread across the UK for a time as we move into December, but temperatures are most likely near normal.

 

Certainly something to keep an eye on over the coming days to see if these signals firm up

Edited November 22, 2013 by Summer Sun

[shedhead]

The Gfs 06z op run is loaded with wintry reload potential from the end of next week onwards, as was the 00z but this run brings the daddy of Arctic blasts following the initial polar maritime burst, this just reinforces what I have been saying recently about cold potential during early December.

I don't think you will find a winter run on GFS Frosty that does not have either some cold, or some cold potential within it, especially in FI. Picking out and posting the coldest of these is fine, because as you say you are only posting what the charts show, but I feel in so doing the overall direction of the expected conditions can then appear a little skewed. 

Edited November 22, 2013 by shedhead

[Average Joe]

The Gfs 06z op run is loaded with wintry reload potential from the end of next week onwards, as was the 00z but this run brings the daddy of Arctic blasts following the initial polar maritime burst, this just reinforces what I have been saying recently about cold potential during early December.

 

Frosty, are you Nathan Rao in disguise?? "reload" and "arctic blast". We'll all be "braced" next....! ;-) 

[MPG]

I don't think you will find a winter run on GFS Frosty that does not have either some cold, or some cold potential within it, especially in FI. Picking out and posting the coldest of these is fine, because as you say you are only posting what the charts show, but I feel in so doing the overall direction of the expected conditions can then appear a little skewed. 

You keep talking of post 144 Sheadhead and your westerly flow with a bartlett. So your continuing prediction of this is also skewed when the charts are not even showing it, or maybe in FI....but as you always say, thats FI. The cold shown in the 06z evolves at 162 yet I suppose you still dont consider it?

[Captain Shortwave]

Frosty, are you Nathan Rao in disguise?? "reload" and "arctic blast". We'll all be "braced" next....! ;-) 

I think most of us are braced when the next model output is due 

Looks like Nick Sussex's Mexican shortwave has at least given us the chance to pull our high back west to allow at least a polar maritime blast, and of course some more interest in what is to come.

[Frosty.]

Just putting a positive slant on things for the vast majority of coldies, some of the current and recent output show a cold blast from the northwest and north during early dec, the ens mean charts are also tilting the jet more towards nw / se. :-)

[syed2878]

maybe i'm wrong but the ecmf did quite bad during this coldsnap on that bases i'm mor likely to go with gfs output atm.

[Gavin Hannah]

Aside from a brief milder interlude this week, the GFS shows a potential 'reload' scenario with another Northerly blast with a LP system moving south down the east side of the UK. (I'd take this weather pattern all winter)

Over the next few days, Arctic air flirts ever so close with the eastern side of the UK and one wonders if some of that air will perhaps reach the UK. Either way, Europe is going to be a decidedly chilly place to be.

Edited November 22, 2013 by IBringTheHammer

[MPG]

Aside from a brief milder interlude this week, the GFS shows a potential 'reload' scenario with another Northerly blast with a LP system moving south down the east side of the UK. (I'd take this weather pattern all winter)

Over the next few days, Arctic air flirts ever so close with the eastern side of the UK and one wonders if some of that air will perhaps reach the UK. Either way, Europe is going to be a decidedly chilly place to be.

That sounds like a fair assesment of the current output. Far from mild, far from Barletts and mild south westerlies.

[stainesbloke]

Aside from a brief milder interlude this week, the GFS shows a potential 'reload' scenario with another Northerly blast with a LP system moving south down the east side of the UK. (I'd take this weather pattern all winter)Over the next few days, Arctic air flirts ever so close with the eastern side of the UK and one wonders if some of that air will perhaps reach the UK. Either way, Europe is going to be a decidedly chilly place to be.

Yes, some good chances for some very chilly air reaching E Britain on those runs. Plus once Europe gets cold it tends to be harder to shift and could be interesting further down the line...the roller coaster continues...