Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[Frosty.]

Change from the Ecm 12z ens mean, high pressure feels like sticking around for longer, the end of next week looks more anticyclonic but at least the ecm mean shows a sunnier high with less atlantic milder air & cloud intrusion so more in the way of fog and frost and more chance of afternoon sunshine, only the far north of the BI missing out on the fine spell with more wind, more cloud and occasional weak fronts brushing around the top of the high during this weekend and throughout next week.

[Biggin]

Many members over-use the term "Bartlett" to refer to any anticyclone that is placed in a favourable position to bring above-average temperatures to the British Isles.

 

 

They do indeed  many without a chart in sight.  They seem to get a pleasure out of even mentioning the word. Despite it being FI possibly which they also tell us to ignore. K which model will blink first for the the breakdown and when??

They do indeed  post many without a chart in sight in their post.  They seem to get a pleasure out of even mentioning the word. Despite it being FI possibly which they also tell us to ignore. K which model will blink first for the the breakdown and when??

[Rocheydub]

They do indeed  many without a chart in sight.  They seem to get a pleasure out of even mentioning the word. Despite it being FI possibly which they also tell us to ignore. K which model will blink first for the the breakdown and when??

So good you quoted twice? :-)

 

Oft is the case in these seemingly prolonged settled periods, a change pops up out of the blue. So please all, don't be despondent, sure it's not even real winter yet!!! 

[Frosty.]

Tonight's GEM 12z looks quite BULLISH about low pressure swinging down from the northwest by the end of next week and flattening what remains of the high across the south, in the meantime, a week of fine weather looks realistic with variable amounts of cloud, some clearer sunnier slots with frosty nights and any clear skies is all the encouragement needed for fog to form and thicken up and be slow to clear each morning.  

[damianslaw]

A quiet spell of weather for the foreseeable in what is traditionally a very unsettled part of the year - all thanks to mid atlantic heights going nowhere fast. As someone else stated - such blocks are notoriously difficult to shift and it will take  changes in the northern hemisphere profile to distinguish the block.

 

Still we are a long way from raging zonal westerlies, and there will always be a strong threat of a northern blast again under the current synoptics, but nothing sustained if we maintain the mid atlantic block in current situ.

 

Its a 'trying' outlook for those looking for 'interesting' weather and obvious signs of a notable pattern change, but when the change comes it could be very swift to something much different - be it mild wet atlantic dominated or very cold polar dominated.

 

The time of year would favour the former option - but if this occurs it could be shortlived - This is not a forecast or expectation that such an option will occur mind. A strong theme of 2013 has been the propensity for locked in spells of cold and mild weather rather than average conditions. Mid Jan - mid June being dominated by the former, and in the main late June - early November the latter. Have we now switched to a locked in colder theme again perhaps?

[johnholmes]

The data suggests that 10 days or thereabouts will see the pattern change occurring; NOT cold northerly either, but I will do an update tomorrow morning.

Just my view of course which may well turn out to be a load of xxxxxxx!

[Ali1977]

Even at T144 the Northern hemispheres pressure charts are quite different tonight, it shows that things can change even at this range . However, not many of the changes are in Northern Europe

[Frosty.]

There is some support for the GEM 12z breakdown from the GEFS 12z perturbations, even a few which are gunning for a much colder spell...I love how P 6 turns out....Brrrrrrrrrrr

Edited November 21, 2013 by Frosty.

[Purga]

Holy smoke what terrible charts for cold lovers

 

 

As bad as they can get. Saves on the heating bills etc, etc ...

 

So near and yet so far away at the end

 

[TSNWK]

32 mins and no comment on the pub run in the back end of November speaks volumes.

I did take a peep...

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Holy smoke what terrible charts for cold lovers

 

 

As bad as they can get. Saves on the heating bills etc, etc ...

 

 

 

 

Wow, can someone skip that chart away never to be seen again... dreadful charts!! would defo be Barty 1 - 0 Greeny !

[ribster]

Holy smoke what terrible charts for cold lovers

As bad as they can get. Saves on the heating bills etc, etc ...

So near and yet so far away at the end

Think you said a similar thing in not so many words earlier today and yesterday...

Really not worth worrying about at that timeframe.

[bryan629]

due to my limited knowledge could someone please explain what joe b is raving about here please

Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori 19m

upward pressure on energy globally from cold in control NA, Europe, Far east. Far cry from start last year, eh? pic.twitter.com/pPpUlyr2we

and this please

Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori 36m

Weatherbell storm track throwing out GFS operational due to feedback problems. Blend of UKMET/ECWMF/JMA being used

interior eastern snow

Edited November 21, 2013 by bryan629

[The Enforcer]

At that kind of range one would be as likely to be able to correctly predict the location of the centre of the Atlantic High on that map with the aid of a pin and a blindfold as GFS is able to do.

[cyclonic happiness]

Funny how everyone was believing the gfs when a cold spell was being shown and now it's flipped they think a bartlett will happen.

Bartlett are very rare, especially in the last 8 years.

I expect a flip to colder charts over the next couple of days.

[Cold Winter]

Overall tonight the models showing a settled period of weather over the next week with very little rain and overnight frost and fog.

 

The 18z GFS keeps high pressure over or near the UK for almost all of its run this evening, while the ECM has high pressure initially over the UK before slipping away to the southwest, leaving an initial northerly wind and then west/northwesterly.

 

No signs of rampant zonality from the models this evening.

 

GFS keeps high pressure over the UK at T183.

 

ECM meanwhile has a brief northerly incursion around the same time frame, but with -5 uppers only brushing northern Scotland.

 

[bryan629]

so according to joe b the gfs should be put in the bin for all its worth lol...

not too bad a run from the cfs tonight if its eye candy your looking for just 324hrs to wait

fingers crossed

Edited November 21, 2013 by bryan629

[NorthernRab]

not too bad a run from the cfs tonight if its eye candy your looking for just 324hrs to wait

cfs-2-324.png

fingers crossed

 

 I'm quite sure that would the lowest 850hPa temps to have ever high Scotland from the north!!

 

Pity it's in the furthest uncharted territory of the FI archipelago, but nice to look at all the same! 

 

 

Edit: My bad, they're only (!) -14'C, perhaps some -15'C in the mix, but still! Lovely eye-candy.

Edited November 22, 2013 by NorthernRab

[Gael_Force]

due to my limited knowledge could someone please explain what joe b is raving about here please

Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori 19m

upward pressure on energy globally from cold in control NA, Europe, Far east. Far cry from start last year, eh? pic.twitter.com/pPpUlyr2we

BZoWTRwCcAAiOsP.jpg

and this please

Joe laminate floori â€@BigJoelaminate floori 36m

Weatherbell storm track throwing out GFS operational due to feedback problems. Blend of UKMET/ECWMF/JMA being used

interior eastern snow

 

He is getting very animated about the latest ECM 32, which he refers to as ECM weeklies - don't know if the chart is from that or the ensembles from the daily runs. Seems the outlook is for colder into the parts of the US till 22/11. He doesn't specifically mention Europe but that ECM ensemble mean map for 6/12 looks very different to GFS operational output.

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 1h

ECWMF weeklies below normal from ne through lakes into southern central rockies every 7 day period through 22dec starting Monday

 

Joe Bastardi â€@BigJoeBastardi 1h

Imagine alot of dec forecasts will change based on ECWMF weeklies. If monthlies came out today, would be very different given latest runs

 

[bryan629]

 I'm quite sure that would the lowest 850hPa temps to have ever high Scotland from the north!!

 

Pity it's in the furthest uncharted territory of the FI archipelago, but nice to look at all the same! 

 

 

Edit: My bad, they're only (!) -14'C, perhaps some -15'C in the mix, but still! Lovely eye-candy.

thanks NR.. Cant wait for winter proper to arrive, usa going through a repeat pattern of 1976... terrible storms at beginning of November(tornadoes, over 100) followed by predicted low temperatures not recorded since 1976 . sounds like a good omen for us downstream

minus the tornadoes of course

Edited November 22, 2013 by bryan629

[bryan629]

quite similar charts from todays ecm prog for the 25th novenber and that of the same time in 1976 , well not a world away .

[Ali1977]

_{Big change coming on the 00Z, 168 huge low pressure over labrador which was not there on the 18Z....}

WAA _{heading into greenland too.}

Edited November 22, 2013 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

Massive cold heading into the USA FI, are things about to start changing for us. Certainly looks different than the 18Z anyway.

[That ECM]

Interesting chart on this mornings GFS at T 180. Whilst the high pressure remains close or over us, there is always the chance the nh profile allows it to drift north even if this is the less likely.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Quote

thanks NR.. Cant wait for winter proper to arrive, usa going through a repeat pattern of 1976... terrible storms at beginning of November(tornadoes, over 100) followed by predicted low temperatures not recorded since 1976 . sounds like a good omen for us downstream

minus the tornadoes of course

Aren't they about to experience serious cold wave in US?

GFS 00z certainly makes the weather more interesting as we go into December. No frigid cold blast but it does mix it up a bit which I think is looking quite feasible.

Something I'm keeping eye on is the HP to back a touch west, maintains an intermittent feed of real cold air feeding into Scandinavia. Also this would also allow periods of pM air to affect UK rather than tM air to dominate. Chances are that the HP will settle in this sort of area

BFTP

Edited November 22, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST