Model Output Discussion 18th Nov.2013-12z onwards.

[SMU]

Come on Chiono, the weather forums are littered with epic failures - especially of the easterly type. Next time we see an easterly, say agreed by 2 of the 3 big models, I will lay you appropriate odds on it actually verifying. Then when Uncle Barty is on the horizon at day 6, you can reciprocate ! 

 

Maybe Pre 2009- but since then..

 

Now not so the case- id put it evens at best - possibly worse

If you count the GFS fails it would be in favour of cold.

 

S

So much for GFS ensembles giving any encouragement. Unimpressive.

I don't know why you waste your time with the GFS ensembles

[bluearmy]

 

So much for GFS ensembles giving any encouragement. Unimpressive.

 depends if you were expecting anything to look interesting pre T264. i'm happy enough with the latter charts as they meander out. ens are never about individual members. Edited November 22, 2013 by bluearmy

[Ian Brown]

Evening All-

 

Not much time to add to the discussion-

 

2 points-  It now seems that the GFS & MOGREPS & Decider models were wrong to topple the high & revert back to the westerlies- even though the ECM showed it for a couple of runs-

 

Also Shades of Nov 80 / Start Dec 81 from the models today ( moreso the ECM ) as we see atlantic pressure trying to ever so slowly nudge into southern Greenland....

expect the GFS to be useless as ever

 

S

 

Well Steve what will be verifying is a million miles from what the ECM was showing at the beginning of the week. GFS has been closer to the mark and correct not to build heights at Northern latitudes.

Edited November 22, 2013 by Ian Brown

[Mucka]

   depends if you were expecting anything to look interesting pre T264. i'm happy enough with the latter charts as they meander out.

 

Fair enough.

I would of liked to see a little more consistency and amplification around 240+ particularly in the Op and/or control but one man's ceiling is another man's floor.

Any single run won't affect my view of the overall prospects.

Edited November 22, 2013 by Mucka

[Methuselah]

Maybe Pre 2009- but since then..

 

Now not so the case- id put it evens at best - possibly worse

If you count the GFS fails it would be in favour of cold.

 

S

 

I think it's always been that way, Steve. I can still remember whining to my dad about it, back in the 1960s: Why are mild forecasts right and cold ones not?

 

IMHO, it seems as if not much has changed, bar the time-scale.

[swfc]

Sense a outbreak of "rutting"on here  .Anyway the ridging in the atlantic seems to be creaping into the mo be it in fi and yesterdays diabolical runs are vanished.Interesting the big swings in the output may indicate a swing to amore intense spell of weather"could go either way"imo but its the weather and it will do what it does !

[Mucka]

Maybe Pre 2009- but since then..

 

Now not so the case- id put it evens at best - possibly worse

If you count the GFS fails it would be in favour of cold.

 

S

I don't know why you waste your time with the GFS ensembles

 

I don't consider it a waste of my time. They predicted our current MLB at the beginning of November and picked up on another possible Atlantic ridge a few days ago - yet to see how that pans out.

I still think you are suffering from an element of confirmation bias in your disdain for GFS and I would dispute it has been showing a Westerly regime setting in or that ECM has handled the pattern better over recent days.

 

I do agree GFS can have a Westerly bias and that is amplified in low res, especially among the ensembles but I think it is a mistake to put too much emphasis on this to the point of discarding any flatter pattern it may show.

[Summer Sun]

GFS 12z ensembles show a couple of cooler days later next week

 

 

Into December the high slowly backs away bringing in a north westerly flow

 

The continued feature tonight is for pressure to remain fairly low over Greenland

[shedhead]

Well Steve what will be verifying is a million miles from what the ECM was showing at the beginning of the week. GFS has been closer to the mark and correct not to build heights at Northern latitudes.

Yet again too.

 

To be honest I am really struggling to remember a N'erly that was progged post 144hrs that actually delivered as shown and I have to go back to Dec10 for an Easterly that did so. Not so sure I have to think so hard about a SW'erly that verified post 144hrs. 

 

8 or 9 days ago the low we saw last Weds was progged to drop down across Ireland and the far west of the mainland, but in the end it went down the North Sea.   At T+174 tonight the low is already shown to be in the North Sea, so given the normal eastward correction we see time and time again with this kind of set up, we'll be lucky to see this feature diving SEwards this side of the Urals come next Friday....

[Purga]

Terrible GFS 12z with a flat mild pattern pretty much throughout apart from the odd NW cool shot. Let's hope ECM is better

Almost a Bartlett

[Snowman.]

Well 12z isn't breaking any trend further up.

 

 

Growing and becoming warmer moving further in as it does so.

 

AS for the ramp up of the PV the GFS could be struggling with some detail so its sort reverting back to a default pattern as its beginning to toy with the strat forecast it probably struggling a bit. It's just one run as well so lets not put all are eggs in one basket.

 

Now lets see what the ECM has to offer.

[IDO]

The GFS 12z is a pressure outlier from just after where FI currently starts. The op tries to keep higher pressure than the ens from D5 (London):

The op hasn't a clue at the moment. With the MLB so close to the UK and early outlier can skew FI and we have two very different scenarios, eg:

T240 GFS op: Control:

HP dominant or more zonal.

The control appears more in keeping with its ensembles, so T384 Control (FI)maybe nearer to the mark, though clearly extreme:

But then again if it can't get its highest res run close to the ens means I am more likely to bin, as Mr Murr would surely recommend, anything after D5 from the GFS. To be fair all models are struggling at the moment and I don't think even the experts would have any degree of confidence from a week onwards.

Edited November 22, 2013 by i'm dreaming of...

[SMU]

Ian i think we have to agree to disagree

Notably though seeing as you follow the GFS theres been a high correlation of failed westerly forecasts from the keele area - must be GFS HQ :o

Edited November 22, 2013 by Steve Murr

[Frosty.]

The GEFS 12z mean shows the risk of a cold blast at the end of next week and then again through early December, at this range, nobody knows how the atlantic high will respond to the forcing from the lowering heights to northwest / north but it appears there will be several opportunities during the next 2½ weeks to tap into a much colder airflow from the northwest or north..I see the potential, i'm sure some of you do too.

[The PIT]

Oh dear I see the bitter pill of FI watching is still causing anguish. Looking at the six day score of the models most of them have been struggling although more recently the ECM has tended to be behind the GFS. Overall you cannot discount any of the big three and call one canon fodder because in deep FI it doesn't show what you want.  Is there any model scores beyond six days? I guess there's a reason for the lack of one and that is that they're all cack at it. What is the cmc I haven't seen that one before? Anyway here's the link for the performance of the models for six days http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html Rankings are normally ECM GFS and UKMO at day five it's normally ECM UKMO and GFS.

Anyway at the moment there's nothing of real interest a bit of potential in FI around T159 so it's  a case of looking for pleasant surprises in the next few days. Everything could do with shifting a bit further west though. So cool frost at night and not a lot else in reliable time frame.   

[Summer Sun]

ECM continues to show a mild day on Wednesday for most of us

 

 

Thursday sees the high remaining over the UK with temperatures falling slightly

 

[alexisj9]

I'm not sure on the UK met 12z it is so different from the first frame from the GFS and ECM it seems broken. I've never seen such a big difference in a 6h chart.

 

Not sure how to post images, so I'm just posting to the runs. Someone else can post them if they like.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021

Who knows it may be on to something my be. But I hope not.

 

Never mind it looks like it's the 14ths data going up.

Edited November 22, 2013 by alexisj9

[Frosty.]

Ian i think we have to agree to disagree

Notably though seeing as you follow the GFS theres been a high correlation of failed westerly forecasts from the keele area - must be GFS HQ

I think the gfs has out performed the ecm recently, the ecm has been shockingly poor with it's recent fantasy cold pattern, gfs never bought it.

[Snowman.]

I'm not sure on the UK met 12z it is so different from the first frame from the GFS and ECM it seems broken. I've never seen such a big difference in a 6h chart.

 

Not sure how to post images, so I'm just posting to the runs. Someone else can post them if they like.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmwf.php

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/jma.php

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?nh=0&ech=6&carte=1021

Who knows it may be on to something my be. But I hope not.

 

Never mind it looks like it's the 14ths data going up.

UKMO is currently broken up to T36 I believe.

[Summer Sun]

ECM once again hinting at something cooler later next week

 

UKMO is currently broken up to T36 I believe.

 

Yes over a week since it updated

[The Northern Ramper]

The ECM looks to be setting something up here.

[stewfox]

Oh dear I see the bitter pill of FI watching is still causing anguish. Looking at the six day score of the models most of them have been struggling although more recently the ECM has tended to be behind the GFS. Overall you cannot discount any of the big three and call one canon fodder because in deep FI it doesn't show what you want.  Is there any model scores beyond six days? I guess there's a reason for the lack of one and that is that they're all cack at it. What is the cmc I haven't seen that one before? Anyway here's the link for the performance of the models for six days http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/new_acz6.html Rankings are normally ECM GFS and UKMO at day five it's normally ECM UKMO and GFS.

Anyway at the moment there's nothing of real interest a bit of potential in FI around T159 so it's  a case of looking for pleasant surprises in the next few days. Everything could do with shifting a bit further west though. So cool frost at night and not a lot else in reliable time frame.   

 

Didn't SM say these are global rankings ? How they 'perform' in our patch maybe very different.

 

Couldn't GFS have a inherent bias in our region ? but be better on a NH scale ?

[Summer Sun]

Deeper low at t192 compared to the 00z

 

[Methuselah]

Been watching from the shadows for 3 years now and am getting bored of all the petty squabbling. I did want my first post to say thank you to all the regular posters who post and pass on their knowledge to the rest of us. The posters who do contribute know who they are and make this place fantastic. Its just a shame that the forum is now turning into a tantrum chamber full of hacked off moaners...... I'll come back in a few days I think when the toys are put back in the Pram and adults can be adults. (sorry for being a nag, but I like this place. Keep a lid on it FFS. The weather Will do what it does. Whether we like it or not.) FATCHAD

Welcome to NW, FC...

[Cloud 10]

The ECM looks to be setting something up here.

 

Hopefully something like the GEM.