Model Output Discussion - 30th November onwards

[Skyraker]

I don't like the sound of that at all. Seems as though there is a lot more scope for something flatter and/or further East. Ah well plenty of Winter left.

 

I read that as it an easterly correction ala 0z mate.

 

Although they don't sound too sure. Can't say I blame them.

[Richie V]

I promised, I would not model watch for ten days but could not help myself. Forget fi but up to t186 looks quite a wild lp fest to me, tonnes of gale potential and eventually a long fetch swly. After the blink n miss cold snap. Yes an ice day highly likely on Fri but thats probily it for some time ahead. Im off to consult my crystal ball! Further outlook looks quite stormy if you ask me.

[Purga]

After the cool blip the majority of ENS shout MILD apart from the joker cold run probably drawn in by Frosty.

 

Arrivederci cold snap.

[Skyraker]

Ensemble watch.

 

 

 

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Skyraker

[weatherguy]

Still on course for a decent cold snap for the time of year with some exceptionally cold uppers (considering it's a northerly) reaching our shores for a brief period:

 

 

This cold spell itself appears to be downgraded somewhat over the last couple of days, but it was never going to be anything spectacular regardless...Which is something I alluded to a few days ago I believe.

 

Then we have the "mild" weather (which may well still feel very chilly at the surface depending on the final position of the HP over us) with long fetch southwesterlies.  Looking at the big picture however, HP heading up to Scandi, which perhaps we can tap into for a more significant spell later on:

 

Still no sign of the zonal train

 

WG

Edited December 2, 2013 by weatherguy

[Skyraker]

Mild uppers yes, mild at the surface ?... hell no.

 

After the cool blip the majority of ENS shout MILD apart from the joker cold run probably drawn in by Frosty.

 

Arrivederci cold snap.

[Purga]

Mild uppers yes, mild at the surface ?... hell no.

Mild uppers = No snow which is what most cold addicts really want.

Cold dank surface gloom - Nein Danke.

[Mucka]

 

Ensemble watch.

 

 

 

 

That sums GFS up nicely, how does London get colder than Manchester in a Northerly? (Just kidding, it's because it has the pattern is too far East for the NW to cash in)

 

ECM ensembles

 

 

Unfortunately ECM Op was about the coldest so not great, on the other hand GFS sits among its milder members, lot's of scatter later but ECM ensembles not backing tonight's GFS 18z at all which has London at around 10 Celsius on the 9th LOL

Still plenty of scatter thereafter but not much support for GFS type long fetch Southwesterlies.

[Mucka]

I read that as it an easterly correction ala 0z mate.

 

Although they don't sound too sure. Can't say I blame them.

 

Not sure what you mean?

I said it sounds like there is scope for the Northerly to be moved East a la UKMO 12z  is that not what you are saying as well?

[tight isobar]

Well let's face it west-ward correction has been failing markedly, over last 24/48 hrs.and a firmer shunt is of likelyhood! Be intresting to see where ouput has things by this time tomorow.(its only early December)

[Skyraker]

Not sure what you mean?

I said it sounds like there is scope for the Northerly to be moved East a la UKMO 12z  is that not what you are saying as well?

 

 

 

Ah I didn't get that.

 

Yeah, we're on about the same thing.

 

Square eyes catching up with me.

Edited December 2, 2013 by Skyraker

[Mucka]

Barring some big reversals on the models this Northerly is looking more and more a none event unfortunately but the models still seem to be struggling, well at least one of them is and it is probably GFS with its phantom low pressure.

 

Anyway GFS is similar to last nights 18z only a little more amplified from the mid range.

 

 

Until a superstorm flattens things again (I'm sure that 945mb low will verify  )

 

 

As for UKMO, I can hardly bare to post it. We get the briefest waft of cold air as the pattern is too far East

 

 

But worse still it sends all the energy over the ridge flattening the ridge.

 

 

The only comfort to take from that chart is the depth of the trough running through Eastern Europe and right down into Turkey and Cyprus. The current forecast for Cyprus on that date is 21C but if that verified that may need revising.  so still chance of building Scandi high from there IMO, if we can amplify the pattern with the next low, even from what on first look is a poor chart, not sure what others think about that.

 

JMA is probably closer to GFS than UKMO for what it's worth at 84h

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Mucka

[Roger J Smith]

Away from Scotland, it seems rather difficult to imagine this very breezy westerly incursion of cold air making much of an impact on temperatures at all, then next week begins to look almost record warm in a southerly draw -- the only reason to be at all hopeful about sustained cold is that the arctic regions have already begun to crank out major doses of very cold air so that sooner or later everyone should get a turn at it. Like I've been saying elsewhere, January looks more likely for this. I see all kinds of signs of a prolonged warm spell developing later this month and not much northern blocking, just southern blocking in a position that forces very mild air north.

 

The 00z GFS is showing maps that could support 15 C or higher temperatures in north Wales where the foehn effect might combine with already warm air to boost temperatures towards daily record values next week.

 

As for the cold spell, that seems to come and go in a heartbeat Thursday night and Friday morning, for most, but I agree it could be quite disruptive in Scotland which will get much deeper into the arctic flow and for somewhat longer too. Blizzard conditions appear possible in some northern regions on Thursday.

[Mucka]

GFS Ensembles

Just about every combination of how the energy is distributed when it comes up against the Atlantic ridge with two opposite extremes below.

 

 

 

Scatter appears in the graphs quite early

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=250&y=85

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?x=257&y=99&ext=1&run=0&runpara=0&type=3

 

Control looking good as we hit Fi but just 36 h later it find s another superstorm (This one 935mb think - I wonder why they call it FI? )

 

 

About half of the ensembles at least try to build some form of Scandi high

 

GEM 00z no good news I'm afraid.

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Mucka

[TSNWK]

Well there you have it. GFS was never convinced really, yes it toyed with the idea of amplication but never really liked it. Met office has flipped overnight and we are basically back to square one with the high.

GFS ensembles I think the cold runs are started to drop out. Mild options are bunched tightly the remaining cold ones are more scattered.

ECM on its way. In a funny sort of way I'm kinda of hoping it will join the other big 2 this morning by easing the northerly and stop the teezing with the scandi height rises, be done with this episode and move on, it's only the start of December.

Edited December 2, 2013 by TSNWK

[The PIT]

UKMO shifts the cold plunge further east we still get a good glancing blow. At least the UKMO keeps the high further west while GFS pushes it into Europe allowing a mild draw of winds to develop. I suspect at t168 UKMO would show us in a mild draw as well.

[Mucka]

ECM coming out. It is the best of the three at 96h and further West than UKMO but we could do with the pattern shifting West all the same. ECM still handling the low just SW of Greenland much differently to GFS so the ridge is more pronounced. Interestingly it has the same area of low pressure behind as GFS which this mornings UKMO doesn't develop.

 

 

 

ECM pushing less energy East over the ridge than UKMO and GFS so it is not as flat at 120h

 

[Great Plum]

ECM's chart for Friday morning shows the cold air sweeping down from the north...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm961,gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm962.gif

[Frosty.]

 I see all kinds of signs of a prolonged warm spell developing later this month

 

Get ready to throw a few shrimps on the Barbie mate..shame it's not summer, can't really top up the tan in december 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Frosty.

[Mucka]

Unusual to see such a large discrepancy between ECM and UKMO charts at such short range. ECM the only one of the big three to still have us under cold uppers at 120h

 

 

 

and at 144h, this is consistent with yesterdays 00z but with the pattern shunted East.

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Mucka

[Great Plum]

Very true Mucka... It does appear that the -10 line doesn't hit the south coast on this run though...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

ECM 144 charts show the upper cold air moving away but it will still be cold for most...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1441.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1442.gif

Edited December 2, 2013 by Great Plum

[Mucka]

Very true Mucka... It does appear that the -10 line doesn't hit the south coast on this run though...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1201.gif

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm1202.gif

 

 

A consequence of the Northerly being shunted East but I would take it at this stage given the other output.

 

168h very interesting, we nearly have a link up but is it a bridge too far with that possible shortwave spoiler?

 

 

Nope, we are good to go. Steve M will be splashing in his cornflakes this morning when he sees this.

 

Edited December 2, 2013 by Mucka

[terrier]

Well another big fail of a northerly on this mornings output ukmo and gfs give the briefest of glancing blows. With only really Scotland seeing the worst of any snow that will fall. Rjs forecast seems a worry for us this morning aswell. Think it's time to take stock and see what jan brings.

[SMU]

Morning Mucka the wave at 168 on the ECM is perfectly placed as it becomes the trigger low as pressure builds on its northern flank-

Should be a great run this morning-

S

[cheese]

Well another big fail of a northerly on this mornings output ukmo and gfs give the briefest of glancing blows. With only really Scotland seeing the worst of any snow that will fall. Rjs forecast seems a worry for us this morning aswell. Think it's time to take stock and see what jan brings.

Actually, GFS shows a rain to snow event for much of England and Wales on the 5th and this has been on every run for a few days now.

 

I'm sure this has been mentioned to you before, but there's really no need to be so emotional with every single model run - hardly helpful.

Edited December 2, 2013 by cheese