Model Banter, Moans and Ramps Winter 2013/14

[snowblizzard]

I bet we'll be looking at some spectacular synoptic charts on the models during April & May thinking if only this was January!

[JOPRO]

Yep, lots of nice cold rain for the bank holidays in may and Easter.cant wait. Like you s

aid blizzard they will no doubt be a bleeding great Greenland high there by then.

Edited January 31, 2014 by JOPRO

[Carl46Wrexham]

My God I'm finding this weather depressing! - no wonder Kurt Cobain shot himself, it wasn't the drugs, fame or coffee but the incessant rain.

 

I've been collating winter records since 1983 but nothing compares to the utter woefulness of this one.

 

Woeful is but one word that can be used for this season..(I refuse to call it winter for the simple reason that at no time has it remotely resembled one)...Other more suitable words would be...spiteful...hateful...vile...miserable...depressing....pathetic...the list goes on. January ends 0/10...as did December...two months of filth.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

Woeful is but one word that can be used for this season..(I refuse to call it winter for the simple reason that at no time has it remotely resembled one)...Other more suitable words would be...spiteful...hateful...vile...miserable...depressing....pathetic...the list goes on. January ends 0/10...as did December...two months of filth.

Think of the best 2 months wasted for snow, February looks to be another wasted month as far as we can see too for cold. Then the Easterly will come only by which time, the sun will be heading to its highest point..... 

[drgl]

 

 

I have one very long term straw to clutch. We are soon to be on the downward side of the solar cycle and I am one who believes quite strongly that an active sun enhances the westerly flow. With a -QBO set for next winter and a sun getting more quiet I expect next winter to have much better background signals for us - and to be honest as the sun heads for the next minimum - maybe a very low minimum indeed if you believe the hype - then maybe the winter of 2013/14 will be just a blip in the run of winters post 2007 showing much colder synoptics for the UK. It is not an unreasonable hypothesis. With the pacific now in a cold phase and the atlantic set to follow at some stage soon then there may well be some stonkingly exciting winter spells through 2015 - 20.

Yep, I'd agree with that. The sun is due to go very quiet.....

[snow freak]

I predict we will have drier weather.

Does anything good come from Russia?  That high needs to take a running jump for a start.

[snow freak]

Yep, I'd agree with that. The sun is due to go very quiet.....

that means nothing.  No way am i psyching myself up in anticipation for winter 2014/15 only to be sorely disappointed again.  Forecasters said this winter would be colder and drier than normal because of sun spots, blah, blah, blah and look what we got.....the complete opposite.  Forecasting is total guesswork.

[492]

Look at all the cold to the east...what a waste..sure they don't appreciated it over there.

 

http://meteocentre.com/analyses/map.php?map=eur_full&date=2014013109&size=large〈=en&area=eur

[drgl]

that means nothing.  No way am i psyching myself up in anticipation for winter 2014/15 only to be sorely disappointed again.  Forecasters said this winter would be colder and drier than normal because of sun spots, blah, blah, blah and look what we got.....the complete opposite.  Forecasting is total guesswork.

The sun hasn't been quiet, then factor in lag. Nothing is guaranteed anyway.

 

Spotless Days

Current Stretch: 0 days

2014 total: 0 days (0%)

2013 total: 0 days (0%)

2012 total: 0 days (0%)

2011 total: 2 days (<1%)

2010 total: 51 days (14%)

2009 total: 260 days (71%)

Update 31 Jan 2014

[Summer Sun]

Latest on the EC32 from Matt Hugo

 

Overnight EC32 update continues to 'write off' Feb as a mild, wet and windy month. Not a sign of any wintry weather throughout the month.

[chiller]

I blame the Express and all those divvy headlines!  Bad KARMA for anyone who likes the cold and snow.  What we need is for the Met Office to start doing long range forecasts again and predict a Mild winter next winter season.  I recall good COLD KARMA last time that happened he he  

[stainesbloke]

Absolutely horrid day, that stupid wind is back yet again. Think that annoys me more than the endless rain! Grrr

[Summer Sun]

Met office update out to day 15 talks of it turning milder in the south during next week and the most unsettled conditions will gradually transfer to northwestern parts, thats a start for the flood hit south west

Edited January 31, 2014 by Summer Sun

[Froze were the Days]

It's grim. I have concluded that while a solar max increases the chances of an SSW in a +QBO winter it also means that, if there ISNT an SSW, the westerly flow is so enhanced over the atlantic that HL or ML blocking becomes a near impossibility and we end up very wet indeed. The sun appears to be at its peak pretty much now.

 

What I am still uncertain about is why the strat got quite so cold. Was that also solar max related? Was it just luck? Was the mid latitude pattern too stagnant? Dont have enough expertise here.

 

I have one very long term straw to clutch. We are soon to be on the downward side of the solar cycle and I am one who believes quite strongly that an active sun enhances the westerly flow. With a -QBO set for next winter and a sun getting more quiet I expect next winter to have much better background signals for us - and to be honest as the sun heads for the next minimum - maybe a very low minimum indeed if you believe the hype - then maybe the winter of 2013/14 will be just a blip in the run of winters post 2007 showing much colder synoptics for the UK. It is not an unreasonable hypothesis. With the pacific now in a cold phase and the atlantic set to follow at some stage soon then there may well be some stonkingly exciting winter spells through 2015 - 20.

Yep nice write-up and basically lays the foundations for next winter which I expect to be fairly cold and have thought so for some time.

[draztik]

just when you are on the cusp of seeing positives from the ens, the JMA updates and shows this into week3/4!

roll on Spring!

[Bobby]

just when you are on the cusp of seeing positives from the ens, the JMA updates and shows this into week3/4!

roll on Spring!

 

CFS been consistent lately in painting a shocking March too, got to laugh lol, either that or cry

 

 

 

Of course a few spoonfuls of salt when looking that far ahead.

[draztik]

I'm headed to New Zealand a week on Sunday for a few weeks! I truly hope the March foreseen by cfs does not verify. Going from rain to (hopefully) sun, back to rain wont sit well! Then again, it'll probably be pouring in NZ and I wont notice the difference other than the temp lol!

lets hope the cfs continues to perform poorly, and its current March output doesn't verify!

Edited January 31, 2014 by draztik

[Purga]

CFS been consistent lately in painting a shocking March too, got to laugh lol, either that or cry

 

 

 

Of course a few spoonfuls of salt when looking that far ahead.

Fortunately CFS is generally useless but on this occasion, what's the betting it'll be bang on accurate!

[Mokidugway]

Until the us warms up this is all we're going to get, depressing isn't it !!...

[snow freak]

why can't we ever get this kind of reloading weather pattern whenever we do get some cold rather than the occasional cold spell which lasts only a few days?  It's simply not fair...... unless you are a mild and rain lover.

why can't we ever get this kind of reloading weather pattern whenever we do get some cold rather than the occasional cold spell which lasts only a few days?  It's simply not fair...... unless you are a mild and rain lover.

it's got so bad now I am finding that i am repeating myself.  I think i need to leave all of this behind for another 12 months.

[snow drift]

This has to be the worst winter I can remember, absolutely hideous. I am so fed up with this rain and then to top it off whilst running from the house to my office in the garden, I went Ar*e over you know what and got covered in mud. Then you look at the output to see ball after ball of wind and rain heading our way. I love the cold and snow but would happily take dry and surprisingly warm. It must be bad, can not believe I have just said warm in FEB!!!

[damianslaw]

Yes this winter so far has been a miserable state of affairs in the main. I wasn't expecting so much rain and stormy weather, indeed some forecasts were calling for a dry winter...

 

Today has redeemed it ever so slightly with our first snowfall of the season..

 

A dry spring is what we need now..and hopefully a cold northerly before the end of the winter - a 1995 end would be excellent.

 

Perhaps we will be rewarded with a lovely summer this year.

[Bobby]

How my dog looks after coming back from the daily run in the mountains almost every day this winter

 

 

Good job border collies shed dirt and mud easily and are used to such conditions in these bleak uplands

[BlueSkies_do_I_see]

So there are 3 weeks left before I stop looking for cold and dry and start looking for warm and dry. I don't count snow as wet just fluffy!

[Tony27]

all those wanting a bartlett instead of zonal i just have to say be careful what you wish for, personally i don't fancy 15c 16c in feb, we have the next 8 months for mild/warm weather, ideally i want a cold high which develops into something more favorable down the line, i can understand those who are affected by floods wanting a Bartlett though 

Edited January 31, 2014 by Tony27