Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Cheshire Freeze]

Just catching up with the latest NWP. The 0z GFS looked a very nice run into FI and to me is the most likely evolution as we head into January, perhaps just slightly too progressive in terms of timeframes involved. Will certainly be interesting to see whether the notion is brought back on the 12z run. FWIW I've mentioned '78/'79 several times over the past few weeks and the idea of weak pressure rises to the N into January is one which certainly fits my long range projections. Could be a very snowy period coming up for some into the new year and I see that Fred (BFTP) has also picked up on the potential.

 

Of particular interest (and something I've noticed over the past couple of days) is the propensity for the NWP to once again present the idea of Pacific ridging in the 10-14 day timeframe.

 

ECM

 

 

GFS

 

 

This alone should help to promote a much more amplified pattern towards the Atlantic sector. It may not ensure a cold regime by itself, though what it does offer is an opportunity for blocking to try to gain a foothold rather than being flattened straight away. I suspect the notion of the jet returning N during week 2 is a direct response of  increased meridionality due to the Pacific ridging- I.e the strong, flat southerly jet is replaced by something a little more sinuous. The question is whether the block returns us to square one with the Euro high pulling N again or whether we see something more interesting develop. Too early to say with any form of confidence as of yet BUT as I say, it at least offers up an opportunity to escape the disturbed pattern we have been in of late.

 

In conjunction with all of this (and something we were lacking at the end of November Pacific ridging episode), there looks to be stirrings within the strat with both the ECM and GFS hinting at some form of disturbance as we head into January.

 

 

If we can get a decent slow down of the mean zonal winds in tandem with some amplified ridging towards the Pacific sector (all about timing here), things could shape up to look a whole lot better on the cold and snow front into January.

[gottolovethisweather]

Three or four 'colder' looking GFS runs might have started to give the impression that fortunes in the current battle may be changing, but looking at the big picture prospects for the overall war remain very similar.  

 

That said of course Shed, the more immediate timeframe, say the next ten days or so provides a few glimmers of hope to us coldies, aside from those wishing for snowmaggedon and entrenched cold a la some recent Winter spells who will obviously be disappointed in that regard. Moving further into FI, why shouldn't the 14 day plus period continue a similar theme? Again I guess it's open to one's own viewpoint of things, but I'd say we're all guessing if the truth be known. Anyway, Christmas week is getting ever nearer and I eagerly await the latest signal from the afternoon suites.

Edited December 19, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Summer Sun]

Not much change from today's NAO update

 

[shedhead]

That said of course Shed, the more immediate timeframe, say the next ten days or so provides a few glimmers of hope to us coldies, aside from those wishing for snowmaggedon and entrenched cold a la some recent Winter spells who will obviously be disappointed in that regard. Moving further into FI, why shouldn't the 14 day plus period continue a similar theme? Again I guess it's open to one's own viewpoint of things, but I'd say we're all guessing if the truth be known. Anyway, Christmas week is getting ever nearer and I eagerly await the latest signal from the afternoon suites.

Agree gtltw, I think it's worth pointing out that given the overall pattern things could be a whole lot worse for cold prospects, in fact what we're currently seeing is pretty much a Cordon Blur meal produced from ASDA Basics ingredients. However, there is no escaping the fact we're looking far more ASDA than Fortnum & Mason across the remainder of December, yes we might get the odd caviered cracker or perhaps a sip of Bolly, but in general the Pot Noodle and Wotsits diet goes on.

Edited December 19, 2013 by shedhead

[Ali1977]

What time does the latest ec32 get released?

[Summer Sun]

What time does the latest ec32 get released?

 

Overnight I think

[Cheshire Freeze]

Next week into the Christmas period looks really stormy on the 12z GFS

 

Will the GFS go on to develop that low for later on Christmas Eve?

 

[Chess01]

Wish the wind would swing to a more nw direction just for Christmas . Could give some people a white christmas

[SMU]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121912/gfsnh-0-150.png?12

 

12z GFS perhaps heading for the 00z solution once again

 

Which of course would be more receptive - especially for the North & NW

 

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121912/gfsnh-0-150.png?12

 

12z GFS perhaps heading for the 00z solution once again

 

Which of course would be more receptive - especially for the North & NW

 

S

 

Yep looks that way Steve. Seems to be a bit of a signal at present. Troughing sinking further S into France than the 6z had it.

Edited December 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[Ali1977]

It's looking much better in the Alps around Xmas, they will be praying for some good snow.

[Cheshire Freeze]

You can clearly see energy digging SE into Europe with pressure here dropping considerably

 

[Severe Siberian icy blast]

You can clearly see energy digging SE into Europe with pressure here dropping considerably

 

Yes that's actually looking a good chart, high pressure towards Russia , deep low pressure toward Italy , southerly tracking jet , this could get interesting.

[Ali1977]

Northerly lining up at T216, this looks like a much better run for coldies, and it's not even the pub run

[SMU]

Well IMBY aside that looks a pretty good UKMo 144 for Scotland & the NW & Possibly NI-  a trough in the flow as well with the jet aligned NW/ SE axis will ensure at least the northern portion of the UK is chilly with periods of rain sleet & snow

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013121912/UN144-21.GIF?19-17

 

a definite swing towards a colder angle of attack from UKMO + GFS tonight-  also GFS has a midlands North snow event at 200.

 

S

[Cheshire Freeze]

WAA Pacific side......

 

POW! Right in the kisser

 

Maintains the theme from the past several runs

 

 

Oh and there's your new year height rises....

 

 

GFS obviously read my earlier post!

Edited December 19, 2013 by CreweCold

[UV-RAY]

Another upgrade from the models with regards to the jet digging further and further south and east. I've been saying the same for the last few days that next week will see far more favourable conditions for wintry weather from the Midlands northwards. Regardless of the mighty PV we are now seeing tentative signs of a pattern change with heights over the Arctic making more of an impact than first anticipated IMO. Lots too look forward to in the coming days with storms, sleet and snow, the latter becoming more prominent has we move through the Xmas period.

Edited December 19, 2013 by Sceptical Inquirer

[SMU]

A perfect chart for VERY cold surface air over any snow covered areas in Scotland- ( if we can get this area detached from the jet)

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121912/gfs-0-186.png?12

 

&

 

http://modeles2.meteociel.fr/modeles_gfs/runs/2013121912/180-778UK.GIF?19-12  Approaching -15c  would be a good bet.......

 

 

Also 12z GFS

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121912/gfsnh-10-372.png?12 a spot of -16 over RUSSIA !! Same as last winter!!!!

 

 

S

[Ali1977]

We've had to wait a while but we might have a happy forum after that run, now we just need some better ens and a positive EC32 update and we're happy...

For tonight anyway.

[Paul]

Michael Fish has donned the Christmas jumper to present his forecast for the upcoming week, including Xmas day:

 

http://vimeo.com/82292156

[Southender]

Finally some eye candy for coldies in deepest FI.

 

A split vortex, some WAA into the GIN corridor and some troughing into Europe.

Edited December 19, 2013 by Shrimper

[shaky]

What a beautiful set of charts this evening. Popped out of nowhere really.well at least we have the ecm to bring us back down to reality!!its been doing that over the past few days.

[Cheshire Freeze]

This chart suggests only a temporary slackening in mid January before it hints at it strengthening again in the distant future.

ENS still strongly average / mild and zonal for most

 

The odd rogue run as pure fantasy - one that Frosty will like.

 

 

I wonder if there will be a few more of these showing in the 12z suite??

[gottolovethisweather]

Another upgrade from the models with regards to the jet digging further and further south and east. I've been saying the same for the last few days that next week will see far more favourable conditions for wintry weather from the Midlands northwards.

 

Yes SI, if you could please tell the remaining NWP outputs up until the big day to continue to listen to gottolovethisweather's recent assessments and push the snow-fuelled joy further South in time then we'd all be happy.

 

http://forum.netweather.tv/topic/78787-model-output-discussion-17th-dec2013-12z-onwards/?p=2864910

 

Paying particular attention to my comments from the latter part of the above post, perhaps the various outputs are onto something for the final few days of 2013. Whilst we may not be drinking Moet & Chandon with sausage-shaped SM pies, whether it's ASDA or LIDL I'm shopping with, it could be a very Merry Christmas for us coldies after all.

Edited December 19, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[phil nw.]

Later GFS continues to show the Asian warming to the Stratosphere in later outputs and now a more disrupted vortex at 500hPa level.

Still a while away but a few consecutive runs now so promising developments for chances of some Arctic heights later.

I think more confidence when this comes into the ECM modeling range, but positive signs for change.

 

Meanwhile in the more immediate outlook more polar air mixing in to the UK picture as the jet digs further south

http://www.meteociel.fr/ukmo/runs/2013121912/UN144-21.GIF?19-17

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121912/gfsnh-0-144.png?12

 

plenty of wind and rain with some snow mixed in for some of us over the next week.