Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[alexisj9]

It's sends a low into europe on the 25th this time.

 

http://modeles.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/runs/2013121906/gfs-0-150.png?6

[carinthian]

Agreed

I think the ECM is on the wrong chord here.  Indeed I am liking the GFS and the GEM with the situation getting quite complex and colder as go through Christmas and get to New Year.  I'm doing my Monthly LRF today and first half of Jan looks like being a very wintry picture. 

 

BFTP

I hope you are right BFTP. Thats the trend we have been given with some confidence in our portal updates.

 C

[SMU]

There is some tentative signs from the GFS but the 06z reverts towards the ECM which shows minimal cold out into FI-

 

Cold is a long way away yet- bar the short term polar incursions bringing transient events.

 

S

[snowking]

There is some tentative signs from the GFS but the 06z reverts towards the ECM which shows minimal cold out into FI-

 

Cold is a long way away yet- bar the short term polar incursions bringing transient events.

 

S

Certainly in the short term but the longer-term Arctic profile over the last few GFS det. runs has looked better than we have seen for some weeks now:

 

 

Of course mere speculation given the timeframe but the last few GFS runs have been keen to develop some weak pressure rises across the Arctic, which can only be a good thing moving forward..assuming of course it were to verify.

 

It will be some days yet before we can start to look at the nitty-gritty of the details IF it comes to within T+200 hours and other models start to suggest similar themes within that timeframe, but taking the last few FI outputs at face value there is just enough optimism there for coldies to sit up and take interest.

 

It could be another doomed FI chase, but at least we have something interesting in terms of cold potential to look at than of late.

In the the shorter term though cool and unsettled rules the roost - I would much prefer the GFS scenario for christmas itself with the worst of any winds clearing away through xmas eve and not returning until after boxing day.

 

SK

Edited December 19, 2013 by snowking

[nick sussex]

As SM just mentioned this GFS 06hrs run is a move towards the ECM, regardless of what it does after the two lows phase its really game over before hand as you can tell by the shape of the low over the UK that all the energy is going to be heading ne.As soon as the upstream low phases with that the natural motion is to pull the UK low further north. Very similar to this mornings ECM operational run.

 

Sadly the brief optimism shown by the earlier GFS 00hrs run lasted all of 6 hours.It might still return on the 12hrs output and I hope it does because  its a long way to cold from the ECM T240hrs.

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Reading Steve M and Nick S posts I thought it was gong to be a horror show, I think they must be suggesting in terms of prolonged deep cold from a GHP or Scandi HP point of view? Well although I foresee a cold and snowy first half of Jan its from a stormy picture and very cold Northerly blasts and not from sustained HLB.

06z deep FI, touch more cold air wrapped in them southerly tracking storms and it will be wintry enough.

 

BFTP

Edited December 19, 2013 by BLAST FROM THE PAST

[carinthian]

I like the continued trend of the 06hr GFS model following on from 00.hrs At 240 hr the upper trough is through the UK and making in roads into the Euro high with the aid of a more southerly jet. Lets hope that trend continues.

 C

[Frosty.]

Reading Steve M and Nick S posts I thought it was gong to be a horror show, I think they must be suggesting in terms of prolonged deep cold from a GHP or Scandi HP point of view? Well although I foresee a cold and snowy first half of Jan its from a stormy picture and very cold Northerly blasts and not from sustained HLB.

06z deep FI, touch more cold air wrapped in them southerly tracking storms and it will be wintry enough.

 

BFTP

I'm glad you are expecting a more wintry pattern to evolve, you have been right so far.

[snowmadchrisuk]

Reading Steve M and Nick S posts I thought it was gong to be a horror show, I think they must be suggesting in terms of prolonged deep cold from a GHP or Scandi HP point of view? Well although I foresee a cold and snowy first half of Jan its from a stormy picture and very cold Northerly blasts and not from sustained HLB.

06z deep FI, touch more cold air wrapped in them southerly tracking storms and it will be wintry enough.

 

BFTP

 

Much weaker P/V by the end of the 6z , that is a start I guess. 

 

[Frank Trough]

Reading Steve M and Nick S posts I thought it was gong to be a horror show, I think they must be suggesting in terms of prolonged deep cold from a GHP or Scandi HP point of view? Well although I foresee a cold and snowy first half of Jan its from a stormy picture and very cold Northerly blasts and not from sustained HLB.

06z deep FI, touch more cold air wrapped in them southerly tracking storms and it will be wintry enough.

 

BFTP

chasing cold from northerly blasts away from the north sounds a bit nerve shredding, to be honest. Shortwaves, shifts east, watering down...living in the south....

 

that sort of set up would be brilliant for the north though, so fair play to them were that pattern to develop. 

[nick sussex]

Reading Steve M and Nick S posts I thought it was gong to be a horror show, I think they must be suggesting in terms of prolonged deep cold from a GHP or Scandi HP point of view? Well although I foresee a cold and snowy first half of Jan its from a stormy picture and very cold Northerly blasts and not from sustained HLB.

06z deep FI, touch more cold air wrapped in them southerly tracking storms and it will be wintry enough.

 

BFTP

No not deep prolonged cold, perhaps something akin to one of the recent GFS runs with some weakish pressure rises to the north/ne and some undercutting with a more nw/se jet axis.

 

The GFS 06hrs run is as underwhelming as the ECM, the GFS looks a touch better because it has a better profile over the Arctic but still delivers zip upto T240hrs, as one of the best ever election quotes from the USA says "you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig"! Unless better profiles over the Arctic equate to something better on the ground in western Europe then I will continue to be underwhelmed!

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

No not deep prolonged cold, perhaps something akin to one of the recent GFS runs with some weakish pressure rises to the north/ne and some undercutting with a more nw/se jet axis.

 

The GFS 06hrs run is as underwhelming as the ECM, the GFS looks a touch better because it has a better profile over the Arctic but still delivers zip upto T240hrs, as one of the best ever election quotes from the USA says "you can put lipstick on a pig but its still a pig"! Unless better profiles over the Arctic equate to something better on the ground in western Europe then I will continue to be underwhelmed!

Next ten days, yep probably just very stormy, cool and wet overall

 

BFTP

[fergieweather]

There is some tentative signs from the GFS but the 06z reverts towards the ECM which shows minimal cold out into FI- Cold is a long way away yet- bar the short term polar incursions bringing transient events. S

[fergieweather]

There is some tentative signs from the GFS but the 06z reverts towards the ECM which shows minimal cold out into FI- Cold is a long way away yet- bar the short term polar incursions bringing transient events. S

That's UKMO view too in latest assessment of 10-15d trend period just issued. No hint of profound pattern change as yet (DECIDER, MOGREPS-15 & EC32 agree on waning deep cyclonicity and increased prospect of at least transient ridging; broadly colder in N with fair chance periodic snow; milder (comparatively) at times to SE; wintry showers at times to S over uplands). So for now, consistent story remains (at least ahead of EC32 update later tonight).

[gottolovethisweather]

chasing cold from northerly blasts away from the north sounds a bit nerve shredding, to be honest. Shortwaves, shifts east, watering down...living in the south....

 

that sort of set up would be brilliant for the north though, so fair play to them were that pattern to develop. 

 

I agree but the cold weather has to start somewhere and I was only saying just a few days ago that I believed Southern Britain won't be seeing any snow this side of the New Year, well there's potential for the rest of today, albeit transient stuff and on the odd occasion during Christmas week too. The cold air won't arrive up from the South so with that in mind I'm more than happy to see such developments up Norf. Baby steps to the long haul of eventually destroying the Euro High and PV, perhaps!

Edited December 19, 2013 by gottolovethisweather

[Frosty.]

Another gfs run choc full of wintry potential, the 6z shows the PFJ digging well south to lie across northern spain during early january with a southerly tracking jet meaning atlantic lows are much further south than they would normally be, normally they would be tracking between iceland and northern scotland. What this run brings us is many potential snow events with more and more arctic air being injected into the mix, this is a recipe for snow, especially on hills but not exclusively and to the north of those southerly tracking lows there would be snow and it wouldn't turn back to rain, cold air would dig south as the low pushes east, so, for the northern half of the uk there would be nothing for coldies to moan about, lots of wintry opportunities with widespread frosts and ice and this type of weather would gradually spread to the south of the uk as well with a significant reduction or complete wipeout of milder air diluting the deeper cold air as time goes on.

Edited December 19, 2013 by Frosty.

[Ali1977]

GEFS has some WAA amongst them, some into Greenland, and some up in Scandy at t300

Maybe a change to the EC32 tonight will sched some light on a poss change...

Perturbation 6 please...

Edited December 19, 2013 by Ali1977

[swilliam]

GEFS has some WAA amongst them, some into Greenland, and some up in Scandy at t300Maybe a change to the EC32 tonight will sched some light on a poss change...Perturbation 6 please...

 

 

 

I prefer 7 and 8 myself

Edited December 19, 2013 by swilliam

[nick sussex]

The GEFS ensembles generally do agree on a lobe of higher pressure over the Arctic at T240hrs, however the problem upstream is still a lack of amplification in the pattern over the USA and Canada. The PV is still reluctant to weaken sufficiently to allow a chance for some proper cold to head south.

 

All we're seeing at the moment is returning PM air and unless you're on a mountain its not going to deliver anything of note,transient lower ground snow that lasts a few hours is hardly inspiring.

 

Of course it could be much worse with a sw/ne jet axis but for  snow that has a chance of lasting two days on the ground there has to be a major change upstream.

[Purga]

This chart suggests only a temporary slackening in mid January before it hints at it strengthening again in the distant future.

ENS still strongly average / mild and zonal for most

 

The odd rogue run as pure fantasy - one that Frosty will like.

 

Edited December 19, 2013 by Osbourne One-Nil
Edited to say the same thing without unnecessary superlatives

[SMU]

Thanks Ian-

 

If I had control of the model runs it would certainly be PTB7 today

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?ech=192&code=7&mode=0&carte=1

 

Loading up a sustained period of cold weather for the uk with more & more snow arriving in the UK at the tail end.,... pity that has next to no chance of verification..

 

Hopes reverse Physcology works....

 

S

[syed2878]

@nick sussex. Although the ecmf showing the pv doesn't want to move from it's current home wouldn't u say the ecmf doing quite badly so far this winter? Well going by 00h outputs it looks like we will get some rest from those deap lows from 240h onward, how ever it's 240h away so lets waight to c what the 12h outputs throws into the mixing bowl.

[nick sussex]

@nick sussex. Although the ecmf showing the pv doesn't want to move from it's current home wouldn't u say the ecmf doing quite badly so far this winter? Well going by 00h outputs it looks like we will get some rest from those deap lows from 240h onward, how ever it's 240h away so lets waight to c what the 12h outputs throws into the mixing bowl.

The ECM has performed poorly past 168hrs even allowing for the normal drop down in reliability at that timeframe, generally though its been wrong when picking a colder solution past 168hrs, in this instance its going for the milder solution!

 

Hopefully it does the same here, there is still room for some changes even with the ECM given the ECM ensemble spread, the lobe of higher pressure in the Arctic does show up even on its wretched later output although weaker and not as favourably aligned.

 

If anyones hoping for a big turnaround we really need to see that high edge south and at the same time more amplification over the eastern USA, hopefully the high in the Arctic will throw the models and beneath the underwhelming exterior they will suddenly get into the festive mood!!!

[bluearmy]

extended ens (naefs and ecm) both bringing the jet back north in two weeks time. the question here is the age old one of whether the ens, over a period of time, start to return to type without any clear driver. over the past few runs, i see the canadian vortex pulling west a bit and a general build of polar heights though currently quite weak. at two weeks distance, thats isnt a surprise. again, this just adds to the uncertainty but it means that no ones opinion can be discounted. all in all, the behaviour of the polar profile is not one which i expect to see with a raging vortex. as i said yesterday, those bubbles of higher heights would be expected to be swallowed up once they get there. the fact that they survive and actually manage to deflect that raging vortex on a more southerly track should tell us something. the ecm zonal windflow charts for the trop show little appetite for any strength above 70N.given how tesious this zonal period (of weeks and week and weeks) was going to be, we seem to be filling a fair few pages on here !!

[shedhead]

Three or four 'colder' looking GFS runs might have started to give the impression that fortunes in the current battle may be changing, but looking at the big picture prospects for the overall war remain very similar.  As  ba allued to above the extended ens are really not keen to keep the jet in a more southerly position, meanwhile the PV may well be set to take a few punches, but it's still a long way from being on the ropes...let alone throwing in the towel.   

Edited December 19, 2013 by shedhead