Model Output Discussion 17th Dec.2013-12z onwards.

[Chess01]

Could be waking up to a blanket of snow on christmas if the gfs 18z is to be believed

[Convective]

Trouble

 

Help.. Look at where I am..!

Hope this secondary low continues to appear in the runs between now and next week.

[bluearmy]

Could be waking up to a blanket of snow on christmas if the gfs 18z is to be believed

 

i guess you are quite high up but even allowing for that, not sure the 18z delivers enough wintry showers on xmas eve to 'lay a blanket'.   getting towards the 'business end' of the run now.

[bobbydog]

Could be waking up to a blanket of snow on christmas if the gfs 18z is to be believed

 

you might get this if you're lucky....

 

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

 

There could be trouble ahead...and so the......

 

BFTP

[Cloud 10]

Tonight's updated fax chart for Monday puts Northern Ireland back in the firing line

for another storm.

 

today..  yesterday..

[nick sussex]

Sadly the SS Search For Cold Research Vessel is hit by a phasing missile! No undercut because the upstream pattern is too flat, all the energy pushes east and phases with the UK low, notwithstanding that the low is poorly aligned over the UK and the ridge to the ne hasn't done its job.

 

I wouldn't even say close but no cigar because we were still three puzzles of the jigsaw missing anyway. Oh well back to slushwatch!

[georgiedre]

There could be trouble ahead...and so the......

BFTP

Would this mean snow north of the low pressure??

The southern one?

Edited December 19, 2013 by georgiedre

[TSNWK]

18z a little disappointing from the tipping point of around Christmas day, Polar profile has less heights building, vortex looked a little more solid and there was less made of any low presure getting into the heart of Europe.

Edited December 19, 2013 by TSNWK

[Joe Levy]

The GFS 18z shows how the chopping and changing of the models can make a huge difference to what sort of weather we will get, but one thing it certainly keeps consistent, if not improves, is the stratospheric warming over Asia, and also enhances the one over Newfoundland and the Northeastern United States. This is something we definitely need to watch. If this keeps showing up on future runs, then Mid-January could be interesting. In the meantime, plenty to keep us busy with the conflict over the next few weeks and dramatic spells of wet and windy, sometimes wintry weather! Stay safe if you're in a risk zone and enjoy model watching!

[The Northern Ramper]

 

There could be trouble ahead...and so the......

 

BFTP

Saturday is more concerning than Boxing Day.

[nick sussex]

Would this mean snow north of the low pressure??The southern one?

Unfortunately very unlikely, not enough cold to tap into. Just an awful lot of wind and rain.

[ITSY]

as has been said, potentially very interesting stuff in the strat developing - albeit we're in very early days and who knows what the effect will be. One to watch as these stormy days progress.

[JK1]

 

There could be trouble ahead...and so the......

 

BFTP

wonder what area would get the strongest winds it this was to happen

[lfcdude]

wonder what area would get the strongest winds it this was to happen

 

 

South west... South west wales?

[Joe Levy]

wonder what area would get the strongest winds it this was to happen

On that particular chart, the isobars are tightest some way to the South West of Cornwall, perhaps the Isles of Scilly would record some very strong gusts. On the Northern flank the isobars are fairly close together over the Central Lowlands of Scotland. However, the very worst gusts are not over land in that specific chart.

Edited December 19, 2013 by Joe Levy

[fergieweather]

Not for that baby on Saturday, very little support for that one.Monday's system is separate and also a major threat! But more likely for the west and northwest.This one has the east in focus if it were to develop as progged.

Actually it's the EC EPS & MOGREPS 60+KTS strike probabilities along southern districts that's most alarming. Let alone the rainfall tally being progged in both those suites. Anticipate warning adjustments (extension) based on the current products.(EDIT plus potential gust strengths progged on cold front look sporting to say the least) Edited December 19, 2013 by fergieweather

[Joe Levy]

http://www.meteociel.fr/cartes_obs/gens_display.php?ext=1&x=309&y=138 The GFS 18z ENS for London - whilst there is nothing remarkable about this set in terms of 850hpa temps, there is certainly some scope for fairly widespread wintry weather based on a few of the ensembles. However, that is not very likely at this stage and is looking in the shorter term. On the other hand, for longer term prospects, if you get a chance to look in more detail at the synoptic charts for the ensembles, the variety of options on offer is certainly broad. When we consider this and other interesting pieces of data we have noted this evening, I feel like the next few weeks will be very exciting for model watching for all sorts of reasons!

[bobbydog]

Actually it's the EC EPS & MOGREPS 60+KTS strike probabilities along southern districts that's most alarming. Let alone the rainfall tally being progged in both those suites. Anticipate warning adjustments (extension) based on the current products.(EDIT plus potential gust strengths progged on cold front look sporting to say the least)

hi ian,

would you dare to have a punt at which southern districts and the kind of wind speeds we could be potentially looking at?

[fergieweather]

Just v briefly, latest EC32 retains a mobile W/periodically NW story through to 19 Jan; strong anomaly for low heights N of UK; HP to S focused towards Mediterranean. Average temps here; strong positive temp anomaly remains across much of N Europe/Scandinavia. PPN signal looks noisy through Jan. Representative EPS plumes for S UK retain steady 850 temps rarely below -5C for ensemble mean. Individual members, on quick inspection, demonstrate v few blocking solutions. So, for now a continuation of broad expectations as per recent EC32 & DECIDER output. Unsettled, often wet; chillier/colder with NW incursions but nought looming to terrify the heating budgets... assuming, of course, it verifies as shown (and who knows). Anyway: next few days more than lively enough as model-watching fare!

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Just v briefly, latest EC32 retains a mobile W/periodically NW story through to 19 Jan; strong anomaly for low heights N of UK; HP to S focused towards Mediterranean. Average temps here; strong positive temp anomaly remains across much of N Europe/Scandinavia. PPN signal looks noisy through Jan. Representative EPS plumes for S UK retain steady 850 temps rarely below -5C for ensemble mean. Individual members, on quick inspection, demonstrate v few blocking solutions. So, for now a continuation of broad expectations as per recent EC32 & DECIDER output. Unsettled, often wet; chillier/colder with NW incursions but nought looming to terrify the heating budgets... assuming, of course, it verifies as shown (and who knows). Anyway: next few days more than lively enough as model-watching fare!

Not what the vast majority on here wanted to see Fergie but tyvm all the same.

I think most of us have our hopes pinned on events over Asia,if the EC 32 is on or near the ball that's half of winter written off for the majority of us.

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Pretty poor GFS 0Z operational with ANOTHER deep low barrelling across the Atlantic just at the wrong time as pressure falls across mainland Europe,the trouble is without someone or something putting the brakes on that godforsaken uberjet we really are struggling.

UKMO looks set to go the same way at 144h so unless the ECM pulls a rabbit outta the hat you'd have to say still pretty much NO sign of any artcic air  getting into the UK anytime soon.

Cant access the 850's on meteociel for ukmo but I think gfs offers transient snow chances over christma for some but i'll not get too carried away with that as the uppers don't look massively different to yesterday and it rained all day here at nearly 700foot asl.

Edited December 20, 2013 by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

[Great Plum]

Interesting that the GFS ensembles show that the mean rarely deviates from near average temperatures from 25th...

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

A couple of weeks ago, it was endless bartletts forecast for winter, then it was mild zonality for a month... - doesn't look too mild at the moment...

[MR EXTREMES]

well the ecm is getting colder and colder with each run ok so not massive depth of upper cold but still slightly below.

as for the ecm32 I cant stand that model infact I put it in the league with the cfs model which also is dreadful.

 

but the ecm is a very impressive model and does seem to be showing slightly signs of moving towards the gfs and ukmo my only concern with the ecm is the heights still into Europe and the rebuild of the azores high pressure system which in turn could slowly edge east into Europe continuing the recent weather type.

 

although it looks out of sorts when put against the ukmo and gfs but certainly not worth totally discounting the ecm we shall see but still some wintry interest for the big day and beyond for more northern and western parts of the uk.

[Duane S.]

 

One wayward member manages to bring in some very cold uppers. Not to be taken too seriously of course as it goes against most signals at this stage