Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[nick sussex]

A frustrating start to the evening outputs, the GFS looked better initially over the USA before the wheels came off, the UKMO is very similar to this morning. For all this original uncertainty with the low upstream even with the models having the inland runner we still can't get over the line.

 

The models are determined to phase energy coming off the PV with troughing over the UK, this wouldn't be quite as bad if this happened to the south of the UK but as it is it happens too far north.

 

There are a few GEFS ensembles which do show better outcomes but even those make a meal of a clean break with upstream energy. The ECM to go can we get that clean break?

[Summer Sun]

Yep has been the same story since late November thanks to the evil duo the GPV/EH.

You have to go way east to see proper cold away from the influence of the HP across much of Europe which has promoted a mild airflow for countries like Poland Germany the Balkans and as far east as Ukraine.

Did anyone see such a setup in advance of winter?

 

Sorry whats GPV/EH stand for?

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Sorry whats GPV/EH stand for?

Greenland Polar vortex/Euro high.

[IDO]

GEM adds little to the general consensus that for at least the next 10 days we have the Atlantic as the driver, slightly more refrained than of late, so maybe more respite between the lows.

 

_{At T240:}  

 

The GFS Control; also at T240:  

 

By T324: 

 

Another variation, like the OP, of the theme of zonality. The 06z had little support in FI, so was unlikely to be repeated.

 

There is still a signal for the loss of polar heights at T300, an increase of 50% now losing those heights, compared to the 06z.

 

At the end of FI the GEFS are about 75% zonal, some slacker than others, but there is a propensity for another upper trough, diving NW to SE through the UK, towards the Med, and the mean surface flow suggests a cooler theme than average. The non-zonal members have HP parked close to the UK, but again a Scandi high is an outlier.

Edited January 3, 2014 by i'm dreaming of...

[Summer Sun]

Greenland Polar vortex/Euro high.

 

Thanks

 

Just a suggestion in general (not aimed at you personally)

 

Could folks perhaps post the full meaning of words like (GPV/EH ect) as some like myself and newbies may not know what they stand for

[Panayiotis]

Sorry whats GPV/EH stand for?

Greenland PV and Euro high was my guess

[Eskimo]

I was going to say Summer Sun, why are people abbreviating stuff that doesn't need abbreviating? I haven't got the foggiest what some people say. 

[Cloud 10]

There's a bit of truth in all the comments so far. Ok, it looks like another week where the PV will try to throw storms at us. But the general signs of change are just as evident this evening: GFS post T192 may not be as wintery as 00Z and 06Z but is much more mixed - not the raging PV we had until a couple of days ago. And we still have a rise in heights around Iceland/Greenland. You can never, ever take your eyes off a height rise in that region - they can quickly link with other atmospheric events to instigate a pattern change over the UK at very short notice. Most significantly for me, it's the UKMO which once again has the most prominent height rise to our north.

 

So very true.

 

The 12z GEM at 144 hrs has a similat theme to the UKMO,perhaps even better.

 

 

 

What will the ECM make of it?

[TSNWK]

So very true.

 

The 12z GEM at 144 hrs has a similat theme to the UKMO,perhaps even better.

 

gemnh-0-144.png

 

 

What will the ECM make of it?

Be interesting how that GEM ends after that 144 chart..

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Be interesting how that GEM ends after that 144 chart..

Its a very zonal run with a very disturbed Atlantic but its a more cool zonal with PM air involved so potential for transient snowfall across elevated northern areas.

[legritter]

There are so many things out there that need to change before we get some realy good shots for us coldies .But Data and models and Met office are Hinting so we are i feel in with a chance .perhaps we just creep along for a while with this zonal hell then all the Models start singing together ,lets hope it starts with tonights runs ,

[fergieweather]

 

There are so many things out there that need to change before we get some realy good shots for us coldies .But Data and models and Met office are Hinting so we are i feel in with a chance .perhaps we just creep along for a while with this zonal hell then all the Models start singing together ,lets hope it starts with tonights runs ,

It may be a while yet before the standard NWP output (irrespective of which suite) exhibits reality of possible outcome later into the month, so I'd urge not to take anything seen out at yonder reaches of any main deterministic model (nor their ensembles) at face value, at least for now. Much yet to potentially unfold.

[TSNWK]

Hmmmm that ECM 144 chart looks ok to me, better than UKMO ?

[Captain Shortwave]

The wedge of heights is further south east compared to the mornings run. This could get interesting.....

Lets see how far south the Atlantic low gets and how close the cold to the north east gets.

Very interesting indeed

Look what is inbound there 

Edited January 3, 2014 by Captain shortwave

[Cloud 10]

Hmmmm that ECM 144 chart looks ok to me, better than UKMO ?

 

[nick sussex]

This is like having a tooth extracted! The ECM is close so close, I have the lighter in one hand and cigar in the other! With that ridge to the north near Iceland its impossible to say whether we will get more trough disruption at this timeframe.

[TSNWK]

Hmmmmm again at the ECM 168, looks pretty good actually

[Purga]

Well now ECM very close to delivering something 'interesting'

 

Exciting !

[Joe Levy]

A Scandi high at 168 on the ECM, with an undercutting low! It's a while away still, but closer than many of these sorts of charts have been so far this winter. Let's see how the rest of the run progresses

[SMU]

The meteociel server is about to explode.

Boom town 168

ECM sausage in the perfect place

I cant type any long posts due to sky being down

Edited January 3, 2014 by Steve Murr

[nick sussex]

OMG I'm almost hyperventilating here! the ECM almost gets us there. I think people can see now why I've been droning on about phasing for the last few days, here we see a clean break and no residual energy attaching itself to the PV.

[Purga]

Blimey - a slider!

[Cloud 10]

This is like having a tooth extracted! The ECM is close so close, I have the lighter in one hand and cigar in the other! With that ridge to the north near Iceland its impossible to say whether we will get more trough disruption at this timeframe.

 

Who knows,maybe the pieces can just fall into place. 

 

[TSNWK]

ECM 192 is nice, slider into cold air, where has this run come from :)

[Ali1977]

Finally, things are looking up. Big freeze not just yet, but definitely winter type weather on the way.