Model Output Discussion 1st January 2014-06z onwards.

[shaky]

Well no posts at all about the 12z that has just come out which probably means there is nothing to write home about!!

[Mucka]

Well no posts at all about the 12z that has just come out which probably means there is nothing to write home about!!

 

Just another variation and though it loses the idea of cut off heights to the North and big Arctic ridge to a large extent the margins are very fine. UKMO looks more promising at 120.

 

 

Edit:

 

And the 144 chart now out

 

Edited January 3, 2014 by Mucka

[Continental Climate]

Well no posts at all about the 12z that has just come out which probably means there is nothing to write home about!!

It is a very poor run indeed very different from the 6z but I believe the 12z is more realistic about our chances and if I were a betting man I would put money on the 12z as being nearer the truth

[Mr.Plow]

It is a very poor run indeed very different from the 6z but I believe the 12z is more realistic about our chances and if I were a betting man I would put money on the 12z as being nearer the truth

Hi, please could you explain why you feel 12z would be more realistic?

[R.P. McMurphy]

It is a very poor run indeed very different from the 6z but I believe the 12z is more realistic about our chances and if I were a betting man I would put money on the 12z as being nearer the truth

 

Can you back this up with some charts as to why it's a Very poor run please? Or at least explain why? And also why the 12Z is more realistic?

 

Cheers,

[TSNWK]

Yep huge differences around 168 no cutoff heights to our north on this run and looks zonal to me going forward this time..

Edited January 3, 2014 by TSNWK

[mountain shadow]

Yep huge differences around 168 no cutoff heights to our north on this run and looks zonal to me going forward this time..

Obviously your referencing the GFS and not the UKMet?

 

As mentioned numerous times on here, the GFS will always flatten the pattern and is best ignored unless it agrees with the ECM and/or Meto output.

 

The UKmet looks decent enough to me.

[Bobby]

The GFS 06z was one of the coldest runs so the 12z seems more in line with its ensemble mean/ECM, a cold and snowy spell in the medium term is possible but you have to say on balance things are strongly in favour of continued unsettled Atlantic weather as things stand, though things can change of course, only tentative signs of that at the moment though.

 

If the UKMO went further I can only see further unsettled weather arriving from the Atlantic, looking at those low heights and pressure out West coming our way.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Bobby

[Cloud 10]

Big differences in the modelling of the Arctic high at 144 hrs between the GFS and the UKMO.

 

gfs..  ukmo..

 

 

 

[Continental Climate]

Hi, please could you explain why you feel 12z would be more realistic?

I refer you to my post above explaining that there is still too much energy in the system with a lobe of the vortex in the wrong place and high heights in Europe and there is a chart in there for good measure

[Mucka]

I'm not sure about the comment that GFS 12z will be nearer the truth and more realistic but it depends on context I guess.

Certainly no reason to take the GFS12z output over the UKMO which has the arctic high much nearer our vicinity and is developing a cut off high to our North.

 

 

Eidt: Cloud10 beat me to it. Obviously I agree.

Edited January 3, 2014 by Mucka

[mountain shadow]

So will be interesting to see whether the ECM Op goes with the Met or GFS later, no doubt will be somewhere in between.

[That ECM]

Big differences in the modelling of the Arctic high at 144 hrs between the GFS and the UKMO.

 

gfs..gfsnh-0-144.png  ukmo..UN144-21.gif

ECM this morning had the high in a similar place to UKMO. Would be nice to see similar, if only for consistency.

[Jason M]

To get the outcome in of the 06Z literally everything would have to go our way. Normally I'd go with METO at 120 hours rather than GFS (albeit at 144 I prefer GFS). I think the GFS idea of it descending into 'shortwave hell' to our north seems very plausible to me.

 

At least there is a bit of interest though.

[Man With Beard]

I'm not sure about the comment that GFS 12z will be nearer the truth and more realistic but it depends on context I guess.

Certainly no reason to take the GFS12z output over the UKMO which has the arctic high much nearer our vicinity and is developing a cut off high to our North.

 

 

Eidt: Cloud10 beat me to it. Obviously I agree.

There's a bit of truth in all the comments so far. Ok, it looks like another week where the PV will try to throw storms at us. But the general signs of change are just as evident this evening: GFS post T192 may not be as wintery as 00Z and 06Z but is much more mixed - not the raging PV we had until a couple of days ago. And we still have a rise in heights around Iceland/Greenland. You can never, ever take your eyes off a height rise in that region - they can quickly link with other atmospheric events to instigate a pattern change over the UK at very short notice. Most significantly for me, it's the UKMO which once again has the most prominent height rise to our north.

[shedhead]

Perhaps not unsurprisingly a very different looking FI on the 12 GFS, with the Atlantic shown to return after a brief interlude. However, it's no more or less likely to verify as shown than the colder 06 FI was, so for now I'm happy to concentrate on the drier, less volatile trend which is now consistantly starting to get modelled in the low res part of the run...anything has to be an improvment on the current setup imo. 

Edited January 3, 2014 by shedhead

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO doesn't look great to my eyes.

I'd say the next step would be Atlantic systems moving in mainly thanks to the Euro high deflecting the jet north...

Can't see an easy route to cold on the 144 chart.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rukm1441.html

GFS offers some cold zonality as we again see those positive height anomalies across Europe kicked into touch..

Edited January 3, 2014 by Cecil Hogmanay Melchett

[fergieweather]

 

METO are still on board, in line with the trends we are seeing.

 

18 Jan 2014 to Saturday 1 Feb 2014:

 "Some signals are also emerging for an increasing risk that the weather may undergo a change to colder weather types later this month."

This prognosis into late Jan-early Feb is based on some emerging signals from UKMO modelling (i.e. contra EC32). I might be able to offer more on this for you all over next few days.   Edited January 3, 2014 by fergieweather

[Jason M]

Ensembles rolling out. Very mixed from early on as should be expected but if anything more support for the 06Z opp run in the 12Z suite than there was this morning.

 

Not seen an ensemble like the one below at days 8/9 for a long time.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=13&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0

[stratty]

Ensembles rolling out. Very mixed from early on as should be expected but if anything more support for the 06Z opp run in the 12Z suite than there was this morning.

 

Not seen an ensemble like the one below at days 8/9 for a long time.

 

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gefs_cartes.php?code=13&ech=192&mode=0&carte=0

.............and even that one doesn't quite get there

[The PIT]

UKMO still holding onto the same pattern it showed yesterday moving it up to T120. GFS having none of it at the same time period so it's over to the ECM.  Quick look at GEM which continues the idea of the UKMO but has the Atlantic pushing back in. None these models show any proper cold I'm afraid.

[Summer Sun]

Temperature anomaly for the next 8 days remains above average for the bulk of Europe

 

 

Normal temps left expected temps right

 

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

UKMO still holding onto the same pattern it showed yesterday moving it up to T120. GFS having none of it at the same time period so it's over to the ECM.  Quick look at GEM which continues the idea of the UKMO but has the Atlantic pushing back in. None these models show any proper cold I'm afraid.

Yes-that would be the natural progression unfortunately.

A couple of points I feel a bit like a track record really but we need to see the heights across Europe drain away.

Once low pressure gets into mainland Europe the ball game changes,until then,its going to be more of the same.

[TSNWK]

Yes-that would be the natural progression unfortunately.A couple of points I feel a bit like a track record really but we need to see the heights across Europe drain away.Once low pressure gets into mainland Europe the ball game changes,until then,its going to be more of the same.

Have to agree. We are getting heights over the pole, we are getting some upstream amplification, but until those heieghts over Europe bugger off we are not going to benefit from the other factors working in our favour. Edited January 3, 2014 by TSNWK

[Cecil Hogmanay Melchett]

Temperature anomaly for the next 8 days remains above average for the bulk of Europe

 

 

Normal temps left expected temps right

 

Yep has been the same story since late November thanks to the evil duo the GPV/EH.

You have to go way east to see proper cold away from the influence of the HP across much of Europe which has promoted a mild airflow for countries like Poland Germany the Balkans and as far east as Ukraine.

Did anyone see such a setup in advance of winter?